Journal Article

In Optimism We Trust? Explaining the Disconnect between Post-Election Optimism and Own-Firm Expectations

Abstract: We randomly split the CFO survey panel into two separate surveys around the 2024 US elections to discern whether the results of the elections had any impact on financial decision makers' expectations. Respondents to the post-election survey reported sharply higher optimism about the US economy and an improved macroeconomic outlook relative to the pre-election responses. In contrast, own-firm optimism and revenue growth expectations were not meaningfully changed between the two surveys. Among many possible reasons for this disconnect, we highlight the expected impact of the new administration's policies and attendant uncertainty related to these policies.

Keywords: business survey; economic growth; optimism; policies;

JEL Classification: C83; D22; D70;

https://doi.org/10.29338/ph2025-02

Bibliographic Information

Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

Part of Series: Policy Hub

Publication Date: 2025-03-04

Volume: 2025

Issue: 2

Pages: 10