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Working Paper
Only Winners in Tough Times Repeat: Hedge Fund Performance Persistence over Different Market Conditions
We provide novel evidence that hedge fund performance is persistent following weak hedge fund markets, but is not persistent following strong markets. Specifically, we construct two performance measures, DownsideReturns and UpsideReturns, conditioned on the level of overall hedge fund sector returns. After adjusting for risks, funds in the highest DownsideReturns quintile outperform funds in the lowest quintile by about 7% in the subsequent year, whereas funds with better UpsideReturns do not outperform subsequently. The DownsideReturns can predict future fund performance over a horizon as ...
Discussion Paper
Dealer Intermediation in the Primary Market of Commercial Paper
The commercial paper (CP) market is an important source of short-term funding for highly-rated financial and nonfinancial firms, with over $1 trillion in outstanding assets. The Global Financial Crisis in 2008 and the COVID-19 crisis in March 2020 both demonstrated the fragility of the CP market, which seized up in both crises and only recovered following interventions from the Federal Reserve in the form of several liquidity facilities.
Discussion Paper
Does Mutual Fund Fragility Impact Primary Market Pricing? Evidence from Commercial Paper
Investor flows in open-end mutual funds, along with their inherent liquidity mismatches and potential fragility risks, can significantly impact the pricing of assets these funds invest in. While much of the existing research has focused on these effects within the secondary markets for equities and bonds, this note, based on a working paper by Li, Tibay, and Wang (2024), provides evidence on how shocks from investor flows in prime money market funds (MMFs) influence the pricing and issuance in the primary markets for commercial paper (CP).