Working Paper

Only Winners in Tough Times Repeat: Hedge Fund Performance Persistence over Different Market Conditions

Abstract: We provide novel evidence that hedge fund performance is persistent following weak hedge fund markets, but is not persistent following strong markets. Specifically, we construct two performance measures, DownsideReturns and UpsideReturns, conditioned on the level of overall hedge fund sector returns. After adjusting for risks, funds in the highest DownsideReturns quintile outperform funds in the lowest quintile by about 7% in the subsequent year, whereas funds with better UpsideReturns do not outperform subsequently. The DownsideReturns can predict future fund performance over a horizon as long as 3 years, for both winners and losers, and for funds with few share restrictions.

Keywords: Conditional performance; Hedge funds; Performance Persistence;

JEL Classification: G10; G23;

https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2016.030

Bibliographic Information

Provider: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)

Part of Series: Finance and Economics Discussion Series

Publication Date: 2016-03

Number: 2016-030

Pages: 40 pages