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Discussion Paper
Out-of-Sample Performance of Recession Probability Models
This note discusses the out-of-sample (OOS) performance of several probit models used to assess the likelihood that the U.S. economy will be in a recession within the following year.
Discussion Paper
Are Stocks Pricing in Recession Risks? Evidence from Dividend Futures
Since the beginning of this year, broad equity price indexes around the world have declined significantly. In interpreting the declines, market commentaries have highlighted the risks to the economic outlook in the United States and other advanced economies.
Newsletter
Sources of Fluctuation in Short-Term Yields and Recession Probabilities
An inverted yield curve—defined as an episode in which long-maturity Treasury yields fall below their short-maturity counterparts—is a powerful near-term predictor of recessions. While most previous studies focus on the predictive power of the spread between the long- and short-term Treasury yields, Engstrom and Sharpe (2019) have recently shown that a measure of the nominal near-term forward spread (NTFS), given by the difference between the six-quarter-ahead forward Treasury yield and the current three-month Treasury bill rate, dominates long-term spreads as a leading indicator of ...
Working Paper
More than Words: Twitter Chatter and Financial Market Sentiment
We build a new measure of credit and financial market sentiment using Natural Language Processing on Twitter data. We find that the Twitter Financial Sentiment Index (TFSI) correlates highly with corporate bond spreads and other price- and survey-based measures of financial conditions. We document that overnight Twitter financial sentiment helps predict next day stock market returns. Most notably, we show that the index contains information that helps forecast changes in the U.S. monetary policy stance: a deterioration in Twitter financial sentiment the day ahead of an FOMC statement release ...