Discussion Paper

Out-of-Sample Performance of Recession Probability Models


Abstract: This note discusses the out-of-sample (OOS) performance of several probit models used to assess the likelihood that the U.S. economy will be in a recession within the following year.

https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.2454

Access Documents

Authors

Bibliographic Information

Provider: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)

Part of Series: FEDS Notes

Publication Date: 2019-12-13-1

Number: 2019-12-13-1