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Discussion Paper
Just Released: Who's Borrowing Now? The Young and the Riskless!
Lee, Donghoon; Haughwout, Andrew F.; Yun, David; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2014-02-18)
According to today’s release of the New York Fed’s 2013:Q4 Household Debt and Credit Report, aggregate consumer debt increased by $241 billion in the fourth quarter, the largest quarter-to-quarter increase since 2007. More importantly, between 2012:Q4 and 2013:Q4, total household debt rose $180 billion, marking the first four-quarter increase in outstanding debt since 2008. As net household borrowing resumes, it is interesting to see who is driving these balance changes, and to compare some of today’s patterns with those of the boom period.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20140218b

Journal Article
Improving survey measures of household inflation expectations
Topa, Giorgio; Potter, Simon M.; Bruine de Bruin, Wändi; Rich, Robert W.; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2010-08)
Expectations about future inflation are generally thought to play an important role in households' decisions about spending and saving. They are also of great interest to central bankers, who take them into account when determining policy or assessing the effectiveness of communications with the public. To help improve existing survey measures of inflation expectations, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York recently joined with other institutions and academic consultants to develop a set of survey questions that will yield more reliable information on households' inflation expectations, ...
Current Issues in Economics and Finance , Volume 16 , Issue Aug/Sep

Discussion Paper
Debt Relief and the CARES Act: Which Borrowers Face the Most Financial Strain?
Chakrabarti, Rajashri; Haughwout, Andrew F.; Lee, Donghoon; Nober, William; Scally, Joelle; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2020-08-19)
In yesterday's post, we studied the expected debt relief from the CARES Act on mortgagors and student debt borrowers. We now turn our attention to the 63 percent of American borrowers who do not have a mortgage or student loan. These borrowers will not directly benefit from the loan forbearance provisions of the CARES Act, although they may be able to receive some types of leniency that many lenders have voluntarily provided. We ask who these borrowers are, by age, geography, race and income, and how does their financial health compare with other borrowers.
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200819

Discussion Paper
“Flip This House”: Investor Speculation and the Housing Bubble
Tracy, Joseph; Lee, Donghoon; Haughwout, Andrew F.; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2011-12-05)
The recent financial crisis—the worst in eighty years—had its origins in the enormous increase and subsequent collapse in housing prices during the 2000s. While the housing bubble has been the subject of intense public debate and research, no single answer has emerged to explain why prices rose so fast and fell so precipitously. In this post, we present new findings from our recent New York Fed study that uses unique data to suggest that real estate “investors”—borrowers who use financial leverage in the form of mortgage credit to purchase multiple residential properties—played a ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20111205

Discussion Paper
An Update on the Health of the U.S. Consumer
Haughwout, Andrew F.; Lee, Donghoon; Mangrum, Daniel; McCarthy, Jonathan; Melcangi, Davide; Scally, Joelle; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2023-10-18)
The strength of consumer spending so far this year has surprised most private forecasters. In this post, we examine the factors behind this strength and the implications for consumption in the coming quarters. First, we revisit the measurement of “excess savings” that households have accumulated since 2020, finding that the estimates of remaining excess savings are very sensitive to assumptions about measurement, estimation period, and trend type, which renders them less useful. We thus broaden the discussion to other aspects of the household balance sheet. Using data from the New York ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20231018a

Discussion Paper
Introducing the FRBNY Survey of Consumer Expectations: Household Finance Expectations
Armantier, Olivier; Zafar, Basit; Topa, Giorgio; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2013-12-06)
In this fourth and final post in our series describing the new FRBNY Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE), we present the final component of the survey, dedicated to household finance. The information collected in the SCE on household income, spending, and access to credit will provide a real-time picture of U.S. households? situation and perceptions as well as rich and unique data for use by policymakers, researchers, and the public. While other surveys, such as the triennial Survey of Consumer Finances, provide data on the finances of U.S. families, few data sources provide timely ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20131206

Discussion Paper
What Do Consumers Think Will Happen to Inflation?
Boumahdi, Fatima; Somerville, Jason; Armantier, Olivier; Topa, Giorgio; Koşar, Gizem; Williams, John C.; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2022-05-26)
This post provides an update on two earlier blog posts (here and here) in which we discuss how consumers’ views about future inflation have evolved in a continually changing economic environment. Using data from the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE), we show that while short-term inflation expectations have continued to trend upward, medium-term inflation expectations appear to have reached a plateau over the past few months, and longer-term inflation expectations have remained remarkably stable. Not surprisingly given recent movements in consumer prices, we find that ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20220526

Discussion Paper
Charging into Adulthood: Credit Cards and Young Consumers
Haughwout, Andrew F.; Lee, Donghoon; Scally, Joelle; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2020-02-11)
The New York Fed’s Center for Microeconomic Data today released the Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit for the fourth quarter of 2019. Total household debt balances grew by $193 billion in the fourth quarter, marking a $601 billion increase in household debt balances in 2019, the largest annual gain since 2007. The main driver was a $433 billion annual upswing in mortgage balances, also the largest since 2007. Auto loan and credit card balances both increased by a brisk $57 billion last year, while student loan balances climbed by a more muted $51 billion, well below the $114 ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20200211

Report
Rethinking the measurement of household inflation expectations: preliminary findings
Topa, Giorgio; Potter, Simon M.; Bruine de Bruin, Wändi; Bryan, Michael F.; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2008)
This paper reports preliminary findings from a Federal Reserve Bank of New York research program aimed at improving survey measures of inflation expectations. We find that seemingly small differences in how inflation is referred to in a survey can lead respondents to consider significantly different price concepts. For near-term inflation, the "prices in general" question in the monthly Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers can elicit responses that focus on the most visible prices, such as gasoline or food. Questions on the "rate of inflation" can lead to responses on the ...
Staff Reports , Paper 359

Discussion Paper
Political Polarization in Consumer Expectations
Armantier, Olivier; Conlon, John; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert (2017-12-15)
Following the 2016 presidential election, as noted on this blog and many other outlets, Americans’ political and economic outlook changed dramatically depending on partisan affiliation. Immediately after the election, Republicans became substantially more optimistic relative to Democrats. In this blog post, we revisit the issue of polarization over the past twelve months using data from the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE)—also the focus of a detailed technical overview in the latest edition of the Bank’s journal, the Economic Policy Review. The overview walks ...
Liberty Street Economics , Paper 20171215

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