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Author:Stewart, Stephanie 

Journal Article
Breakeven Employment Growth

Employment growth has consistently come in above pre-pandemic estimates of the rate needed for unemployment to stay near its long-run natural rate. Even so, unemployment has held steady, which raises the question of whether the “breakeven” employment growth rate has changed. In the short-run, recent surges in immigration and labor force participation have caused the current breakeven employment growth rate to rise as high as 230,000 jobs per month. However, the long-run breakeven employment growth rate appears unchanged, ranging around 70,000 to 90,000 jobs per month.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2024 , Issue 18 , Pages 5

Journal Article
Wildfires and Real Estate Values in California

Wildfires have been a concern in California for decades. The intensity of these events has increased recently, with particularly large and destructive fire seasons between 2018 and 2021. Analysis shows that distance from high fire-risk zones had little impact on residential housing values in the past. However, that has changed since the late 2010s, coinciding with more extensive fire damage to land and structures across the state. Insurance availability appears to help little in preserving home values in areas that are considered more at risk.
Economic Review , Volume 2024 , Issue 22 , Pages 5

Journal Article
International Influences on U.S. Inflation

The COVID-19 inflation surge experienced abroad undoubtedly left its mark on U.S. inflation. As global economies return to business as usual, it is natural to ask whether international considerations continue to affect U.S. inflation. Recent analysis shows that, although in normal times the international component of U.S. inflation is usually small, at other times it can contribute significantly to U.S. inflation dynamics.
FRBSF Economic Letter , Volume 2024 , Issue 27 , Pages 6

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