Journal Article
Does the Yield Curve Really Forecast Recession?
Spewak, Andrew; Andolfatto, David (2018)
An inverted yield curve doesn?t forecast recession; it forecasts conditions that make recession more likely.
Economic Synopses , Issue 30 , Pages 1-2

Journal Article
Warning: Don’t Infer Regional Inflation Differences from House Price Changes
Spewak, Andrew; Gascon, Charles S. (2018)
If house prices in one metropolitan statistical area (MSA) are increasing much faster than in another MSA, should one infer that overall inflation is also much faster in the former?
Economic Synopses , Issue 6 , Pages 1-4

Journal Article
Evansville, Ind., Adapts As Manufacturing, Population Growth Slide
Spewak, Andrew; Gascon, Charles S. (2016-10)
The education and health services sector is the largest employer in the metro area these days. Manufacturing, especially that related to the auto industry, is still strong but not what it once was. Another challenge is the area?s slow population growth.
The Regional Economist , Issue October

Journal Article
On the Supply of, and Demand for, U.S. Treasury Debt
Spewak, Andrew; Andolfatto, David (2018)
Throughout the early 2000s, federal debt held by the public?the amount of outstanding U.S. Treasury securities (Treasuries) held by the Federal Reserve System and private investors?was stable at around 35 percent of gross domestic product (GDP).
Economic Synopses , Issue 5 , Pages 1-3

Journal Article
Working from Home: More Americans Are Telecommuting
Gascon, Charles S.; Arbogast, Iris; Spewak, Andrew (2019)
Americans who primarily work from home represented 3% of full-time employees in 2017, up from 0.7% in 1980.
The Regional Economist , Volume 27 , Issue 3

Working Paper
Understanding Lowflation
Spewak, Andrew; Andolfatto, David (2018-09-01)
Central banks are viewed as having a demonstrated ability to lower long-run inflation. Since the financial crisis, however, the central banks in some jurisdictions seem almost powerless to accomplish the opposite. In this article, we offer an explanation for why this may be the case. Because central banks have limited instruments, long-run inflation is ultimately determined by fiscal policy. Central bank control of long-run inflation therefore ultimately hinges on its ability to gain fiscal compliance with its objectives. This ability is shown to be inherently easier for a central bank ...
Working Papers , Paper 2018-24

Journal Article
Advanced Manufacturing Is Vital across Nation, Including Eighth District
Spewak, Andrew; Gascon, Charles S. (2017)
Manufacturing has been one of the nation?s largest and most productive sectors dating back to the Industrial Revolution, and that remains true today despite a long-term decline in employment. As technological progress continues to alter the landscape of the economy, a subset of manufacturing industries known as ?advanced manufacturing? serves as a critical source of growth as these products drive productivity gains throughout the economy.
The Regional Economist , Volume 25 , Issue 4

Journal Article
Understanding Lowflation
Spewak, Andrew; Andolfatto, David (2019)
Central banks are viewed as having a demonstrated ability to lower long-run inflation. Since the Financial Crisis, however, the central banks in some jurisdictions seem almost powerless to accomplish the opposite. In this article, we offer an explanation for why this may be the case. Because central banks have limited instruments, long-run inflation is ultimately determined by fiscal policy. Central bank control of long-run inflation therefore ultimately hinges on its ability to gain fiscal compliance with its objectives. This ability is shown to be inherently easier for a central bank ...
Review , Volume 101 , Issue 1 , Pages 1-26

Journal Article
Whither the Price of Bitcoin?
Spewak, Andrew; Andolfatto, David (2019)
The total value of Bitcoin has declined as a share of all cryptocurrencies.
Economic Synopses , Issue 1 , Pages 1-2