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Journal Article
Regional Firms Are Disagreeing About How to React to Current Economic Conditions
There is an increased level of disagreement among firms about their respective economic outlooks in the Tenth District region. As heightened levels of disagreement are historically associated with softening employment, this could have implications for economic conditions moving forward.
Journal Article
Poverty Thresholds Across the Rocky Mountain Region
The ability of households to purchase a certain amount of essential items can determine whether they are classified as being impoverished. These spending thresholds differ at local levels because the costs of reaching a specified consumption level vary from community to community. Poverty thresholds across the Rocky Mountain region often exceed national averages, with some counties having nearly 30 percent higher thresholds than the national level.
Journal Article
Pushing the Limit: Last-Minute Debt Limit Resolutions Have Increased Market Volatility and Uncertainty
Since reaching the debt limit in January 2023, the U.S. Treasury has used extraordinary measures to fund the government. However, the Treasury estimates those measures will be exhausted later this year. To gauge possible effects, we review economic and financial market outcomes during previous debt limit episodes. In each case, these episodes led to increased borrowing costs, financial market volatility, and uncertainty, particularly when the resolutions were prolonged.
Working Paper
The Multinational Wage Premium and Wage Dynamics
Using detailed administrative data linking French firms and workers over the years 2002-2007, we document a distinct U-shaped pattern in worker-level wages surrounding the time their employer is acquired by a foreign firm, with a dip in earnings observed in years just before domestic firms switch to MNE status. The dip in earnings is evident in both wages and in-kind payments given to workers. {{p}} To guide our empirical approach, we present a model with fair wage considerations among workers and endogenous cross-border acquisition activity among heterogeneous firms that predicts this ...
Journal Article
Capital Reallocation and Capital Investment
Corporate debt levels have grown substantially during the 10-year recovery from the global financial crisis. This debt might be expected to finance investments that support firm expansion, as the U.S. economy has experienced strong growth over the last 10 years. However, much of the corporate debt has been used to reallocate capital through mergers and acquisitions rather than to fund investment activity. Perhaps as a result, some market watchers have expressed concerns that corporations are crowding out, rather than complementing, new investment. {{p}} David Rodziewicz and Nicholas Sly show ...
Journal Article
Global Uncertainty in the Wake of Brexit
Hakkio and Sly find that increased global uncertainty after Brexit will be a major concern for the United Kingdom, a modest concern for the euro area, and a minor concern for the United States.
Journal Article
Subsiding Headwinds from the Strong Dollar: Evidence from Producer Prices along the Supply Chain
The foreign exchange value of the U.S. dollar has stabilized, and producer prices are rising, especially at early stages of the supply chain.
Journal Article
Businesses in the Rocky Mountains Report Steady Employment Outlooks with Softer Wage Gains
Employers in the Rocky Mountain region expect stable employment levels over the next year on balance. Businesses where employment recently fell reduced their headcount mainly by not backfilling open positions. Lower hiring activity is accompanied by less competitive pressure on wages than in past years, especially for new hires.
Working Paper
Global tax policy and the synchronization of business cycles
Using a 30-year panel of quarterly GDP ?uctuations from of a broad set of countries, we demonstrate that the signing of a bilateral tax treaty increases the comovement of treaty partners' business cycles by 1/2 a standard deviation. This e?ect of ?scal policy is as large as the e?ect of trade linkages on comovement, and stronger than the e?ects of several other common ?nancial and investment linkages. We also show that bilateral tax treaties increase comovement in shocks to nations? GDP trends, demonstrating the permanent e?ects of coordination on ?scal policy rules. We estimate trend and ...
Journal Article
Global Uncertainty and U.S. Exports
Nicholas Sly finds that periods of greater uncertainty and financial volatility within U.S. trading partners are associated with substantially lower demand for U.S. goods.