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Author:Sly, Nicholas 

Journal Article
Global Supply Chain Disruptions Can Be Seen Anywhere, but Their Costs Are Not the Same Everywhere

Although ubiquitous, supply chain challenges are exerting more cost pressures on the types of businessesconcentrated in the Tenth Federal Reserve District. Businesses in the region are less willing or able to adjustthe amount of imported goods they purchase even when procurement prices rise precipitously, as they have over the past year.
Economic Bulletin , Issue January 12, 2022 , Pages 4

Journal Article
Regional Firms Are Disagreeing About How to React to Current Economic Conditions

There is an increased level of disagreement among firms about their respective economic outlooks in the Tenth District region. As heightened levels of disagreement are historically associated with softening employment, this could have implications for economic conditions moving forward.
Rocky Mountain Economist , Volume 2024 , Issue 2

Journal Article
Labor Market Improvement and the Use of Subsidized Housing Programs

The authors estimated how state-level changes in labor market conditions for particular sex, age, and race groups affect participation in a variety of subsidized housing programs.
Economic Review , Issue Q IV , Pages 37-58

Journal Article
Global Uncertainty in the Wake of Brexit

Hakkio and Sly find that increased global uncertainty after Brexit will be a major concern for the United Kingdom, a modest concern for the euro area, and a minor concern for the United States.
Macro Bulletin

Journal Article
Poverty Thresholds Across the Rocky Mountain Region

The ability of households to purchase a certain amount of essential items can determine whether they are classified as being impoverished. These spending thresholds differ at local levels because the costs of reaching a specified consumption level vary from community to community. Poverty thresholds across the Rocky Mountain region often exceed national averages, with some counties having nearly 30 percent higher thresholds than the national level.
Rocky Mountain Economist

Journal Article
Capital Reallocation and Capital Investment

Corporate debt levels have grown substantially during the 10-year recovery from the global financial crisis. This debt might be expected to finance investments that support firm expansion, as the U.S. economy has experienced strong growth over the last 10 years. However, much of the corporate debt has been used to reallocate capital through mergers and acquisitions rather than to fund investment activity. Perhaps as a result, some market watchers have expressed concerns that corporations are crowding out, rather than complementing, new investment. {{p}} David Rodziewicz and Nicholas Sly show ...
Economic Review , Issue Q II , Pages 33-52

Journal Article
More Households Are Tapping into Their Home Equity After Rapid Home Value Appreciation

The use of home equity lines of credit (HELOCs) grew over the last two years after nearly a decade of declining balances. Relatively more households opened and used HELOCs in states that experienced faster home value growth. Once tapped, households typically use HELOC funds to engage in some targeted debt consolidation that could help them manage their household balance sheets.
Rocky Mountain Economist

Journal Article
Pushing the Limit: Last-Minute Debt Limit Resolutions Have Increased Market Volatility and Uncertainty

Since reaching the debt limit in January 2023, the U.S. Treasury has used extraordinary measures to fund the government. However, the Treasury estimates those measures will be exhausted later this year. To gauge possible effects, we review economic and financial market outcomes during previous debt limit episodes. In each case, these episodes led to increased borrowing costs, financial market volatility, and uncertainty, particularly when the resolutions were prolonged.
Economic Bulletin , Issue February 22, 2023 , Pages 4

Working Paper
The Labor Market Effects of Offshoring by U.S. Multinational Firms: Evidence from Changes in Global Tax Policies

Estimating the causal effect of offshoring on domestic employment is difficult because of the inherent simultaneity of multinational firms? domestic and foreign affiliate employment decisions. In this paper, we resolve this identification problem using variation in Bilateral Tax Treaties (BTTs), which reduce the effective cost of offshore activity by mitigating double taxation. We derive a panel difference-in-differences research design from a standard model of multinational firms, demonstrating the simultaneity problem and showing how to resolve it using BTTs as an instrument for offshore ...
Research Working Paper , Paper RWP 17-12

Journal Article
Global Uncertainty and U.S. Exports

Nicholas Sly finds that periods of greater uncertainty and financial volatility within U.S. trading partners are associated with substantially lower demand for U.S. goods.
Economic Review , Issue Q II , Pages 5-23

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