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Working Paper
The Impact of Merger Legislation on Bank Mergers
We find that stricter merger control legislation increases abnormal announcement returns of targets in bank mergers by 7 percentage points. Analyzing potential explanations for this result, we document an increase in the pre-merger profitability of targets, a decrease in the size of acquirers, and a decreasing share of transactions in which banks are acquired by other banks. Other merger properties, including the size and risk profile of targets, the geographic overlap of merging banks, and the stock market response of rivals appear unaffected. The evidence suggests that the strengthening of ...
Journal Article
Modeling Behavioral Responses to COVID-19
Many models have been developed to forecast the spread of the COVID-19 virus. We present one that is enhanced to allow individuals to alter their behavior in response to the virus. We show how adding this feature to the model both changes the resulting forecast and informs our understanding of the appropriate policy response. We find that when left to their own devices, individuals do curb their social activity in the face of risk, but not as much as a government planner would. The planner fully internalizes the effect of all individuals’ actions on others in society, while individuals do ...
Journal Article
Two Approaches to Predicting the Path of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Is One Better?
We compare two types of models used to predict the spread of the coronavirus, both of which have been used by government officials and agencies. We describe the nature of the difference between the two approaches and their advantages and limitations. We compare examples of each type of model—the University of Washington IHME or “Murray” model, which follows a curve-fitting approach, and the Ohio State University model, which follows a structural approach.
Journal Article
Asset Commonality in US Banks and Financial Stability
One potential threat to a stable financial system is the phenomenon of contagion, where a risk that is ordinarily small becomes a problem because of the way it spreads to other institutions. Researchers have investigated multiple channels through which contagion might occur. We look at two?banks borrowing from each other and banks holding similar types of assets?and argue that the latter is a potential source of systemic risk. We review recent data on asset concentrations and capitalization levels of the largest US banks and conclude that the overall risk from this particular contagion ...
Journal Article
Merger Control in the Banking Sector
This Commentary discusses the implications of merger control policy on merger activity in the banking sector, drawing on an analysis of the European banking sector during a period in which stricter merger policies were being introduced. It identifies several changes to the bank mergers taking place after the introduction of the stricter policies that are consistent with higher expected returns for shareholders and more procompetitive transactions. The evidence suggests that the new merger policy was successful in preventing mergers that are excessively anticompetitive, while it also led to ...
Working Paper
The Impact of Stricter Merger Control on Bank Mergers and Acquisitions. Too-Big-To-Fail and Competition
The effect of regulations on the banking sector is a key question for financial intermediation. This paper provides evidence that merger control regulation, although not directly targeted at the banking sector, has substantial economic effects on bank mergers. Based on an extensive sample of European countries, we show that target announcement premia increased by up to 16 percentage points for mergers involving control shifts after changes in merger legislation, consistent with a market expectation of increased profitability. These effects go hand-in-hand with a reduction in the propensity ...
Journal Article
Improving Epidemic Modeling with Networks
Many of the models used to track, forecast, and inform the response to epidemics such as COVID-19 assume that everyone has an equal chance of encountering those who are infected with a disease. But this assumption does not reflect the fact that individuals interact mostly within much narrower groups. We argue that incorporating a network perspective, which accounts for patterns of real-world interactions, into epidemiological models provides useful insights into the spread of infectious diseases.
Working Paper
How Do Banks Respond to Capital Regulation? — The Impact of the Basel III Reforms in the United States
Understanding banks’ responses to capital regulation is essential for regulators to use this key tool of modern banking regulation effectively. We study how and when US banks responded to changes to the way capital ratios are measured, changes that were introduced as part of the adoption of Basel III. We find that small banks — those below USD 10bn — responded neither before nor after the release of the new rules to the change in measured capital they experienced under the new rules. In contrast, we show that regional banks — those with total assets between USD 10bn and USD 50bn — ...
Working Paper
Making Friends Meet: Network Formation with Introductions
This paper proposes a parsimonious model of network formation with introductions in the presence of intermediation rents. Introductions allow two nodes to form a new connection on favorable terms with the help of a common neighbor. The decision to form links via introductions is subject to a trade-off between the gains from having a direct connection at lower cost and the potential losses for the introducer from lower intermediation rents. When nodes take advantage of introductions, stable networks tend to exhibit a minimum amount of clustering. At the same time, intermediary nodes have ...
Journal Article
The Evolution of US Bank Capital around the Implementation of Basel III
Following the Global Financial Crisis of 2007–2008, the capital standards for banks operating in the United States were tightened as US banking regulators implemented the Basel III framework. This Economic Commentary briefly presents the key elements of Basel III relevant to bank capital and analyzes the timing of the evolution of regulatory capital ratios for US bank holding companies during that time. It shows that, on average, banks’ capital ratios increased notably between 2009 and 2012, plateauing before the new rules came into force. While larger and better-capitalized banks ...