Two Approaches to Predicting the Path of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Is One Better?

RePEc Short ID: pcr197
ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0667-1422

Craig, Ben R.; Phelan, Tom; Siedlarek, Jan-Peter; Steinberg, Jared

doi:10.26509/frbc-ec-202110

Journal Article

Two Approaches to Predicting the Path of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Is One Better?

Abstract: We compare two types of models used to predict the spread of the coronavirus, both of which have been used by government officials and agencies. We describe the nature of the difference between the two approaches and their advantages and limitations. We compare examples of each type of model—the University of Washington IHME or “Murray” model, which follows a curve-fitting approach, and the Ohio State University model, which follows a structural approach.

Keywords: COVID-19;

https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-ec-202110