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Working Paper
Impact of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act on Labor Supply and Welfare of Married Households
This paper calculates the change in optimal labor supply and total family welfare resultingfrom the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (TCJA). We estimate labor supply elasticities for marriedfamilies in the Current Population Survey from 2015 to 2017, using a joint family utility model. Theseelasticities are then used to simulate changes in optimal labor supply and resulting change in welfareamong families with different characteristics under the new TCJA tax code. We find that optimalhours are lower post-TCJA, relative to before. However, there are differences across family membersand family ...
Working Paper
Family Welfare and the Great Recession
The analysis in this paper provides estimates of family welfare losses generated by wage and nonlabor income declines experienced across the Great Recession and by labor market constraints existing postrecession. Welfare losses are greater as families (both married and single) move up the income distribution. Total static welfare losses are estimated to amount to roughly $190 billion, comparing family welfare between 2007 and 2011.
Working Paper
A closer look at nonparticipants during and after the Great Recession
This paper uses matched individual-level data from the Current Population Survey to determine that around the 2008 recession, there was a significant upward shift in trend of the share of labor force leavers giving "Schooling" and "Other" as the reason for absence from the labor market. This trend shift is observed primarily among workers between the ages of 25 and 54 and is widespread across all educational groups with at least a high school degree. In addition, the upward shift in the trend of the schooling reason share occurred among workers previously employed in occupations and ...
Working Paper
The wage impact of undocumented workers
Using administrative, individual-level, longitudinal data from the state of Georgia, this paper finds that a documented worker employed by a firm that hires undocumented workers can expect to earn 0.15 percent less than if employed by a firm that does not hire undocumented workers. However, in sectors where there are opportunities for task specialization and benefits from communication skills, documented workers can expect to earn a wage premium of less than 1 percent from being employed at a firm that also hires undocumented workers.
Working Paper
Family Welfare and the Cost of Unemployment
This paper calculates the cost of an unemployment shock in terms of family welfare. We find that, overall, families face an average annualized expected dollar equivalent welfare loss of $1,156 when the unemployment rate rises by 1 percentage point. The average welfare loss for married families is greater than for single families and increases with education. We then estimate that a 1.8 percent shock to purchasing power would generate the same amount of overall welfare loss as a one-percentage-point rise in the unemployment rate.
Working Paper
Changes in family welfare from 1994 to 2012: a tale of two decades
The female/male average wage ratio has steadily risen from 1983 to 2012. In earlier work, we found that the falling wage gap from 1983 to 1993 was materially detrimental to the average dual-earner family. The female/male wage ratio continued to rise over the following two decades, accompanied by a growing share of households in which the wife is the principal household income generator. This paper investigates how these two developments affected family welfare. Although family welfare rose during the 1990s, the story of the 2000s is quite different.