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Discussion Paper
Mind the Gap: Announced versus Implied Tariff Rates in Recent Trade Policy Episodes
In the past year, the U.S. has raised its tariffs on trading partners to a historic level. The tariff rate implied by actual tariff payments owed by importers, however, falls short of the tariff rate implied by announced policies (Gopinath and Neiman, 2026).
Discussion Paper
Detecting Tariff Effects on Consumer Prices in Real Time – Part II
Major changes in U.S. trade policy last year have led to a surge of interest in the timely assessment of the economic effects of tariffs. Minton and Somale (2025) developed a methodology to detect tariff effects on consumer prices in real time that relies solely on publicly available data.