Search Results
Working Paper
A closer look at nonparticipants during and after the Great Recession
This paper uses matched individual-level data from the Current Population Survey to determine that around the 2008 recession, there was a significant upward shift in trend of the share of labor force leavers giving "Schooling" and "Other" as the reason for absence from the labor market. This trend shift is observed primarily among workers between the ages of 25 and 54 and is widespread across all educational groups with at least a high school degree. In addition, the upward shift in the trend of the schooling reason share occurred among workers previously employed in occupations and ...
Journal Article
Where There's Smoke...: The Wage Impact of Smoking
Cigarette smokers earn significantly less than nonsmokers, but the magnitude of the smoking wage gap and the pathways by which it originates are unclear. While most research focuses on contemporaneous reasons for the wage differential, the research described in this Policy Hub article finds that decisions made early in life—about education, labor force participation, and occupation—contribute significantly to the wage penalty smokers face later, especially for men. Women are found to be judged more harshly by their current employers for their smoking behavior, and since quitting smoking ...
Journal Article
Smoking: taxing health and Social Security
Cigarette smoking is costly in terms of not only its effects on smokers' health but also the direct and indirect financial costs it imposes on smokers and their families. For instance, premature death caused by smoking may redistribute Social Security income in unexpected ways that affect behavior and reduce the economic well-being of smokers and their dependents. ; This article examines the effects of smoking-attributable mortality on the net marginal Social Security tax rate (NMSSTR)?the difference between the statutory payroll tax rate and the present value of future benefits to which a ...
Working Paper
Incorporating insurance rate estimates and differential mortality into net marginal Social Security tax rate calculations
This paper extends the literature on net marginal tax rates created by the Social Security program by including variations in both the probability of being eligible to receive benefits and income-related life expectancy. The previous literature has found that women incur a lower net marginal tax rate because they have longer life expectancies. The results presented in this paper indicate that including variations in eligibility for benefits partially reverses this result by increasing net marginal Social Security tax rates for older women. In addition, the existing literature has shown that ...
Working Paper
The Dynamics of the Smoking Wage Penalty
Cigarette smokers earn significantly less than nonsmokers, but the magnitude of the smoking wage gap and the pathways by which it originates are unclear. Proposed mechanisms often focus on spot differences in employee productivity or employer preferences, neglecting the dynamic nature of human capital development and addiction. In this paper, we formulate a dynamic model of young workers as they transition from schooling to the labor market, a period in which the lifetime trajectory of wages is being developed. We estimate the model with data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, ...
Working Paper
Earnings on the information technology roller coaster: insight from matched employer-employee data
This paper uses matched employer-employee data for the state of Georgia to examine workers? earnings experience through the information technology (IT) sector?s employment boom of the mid-1990s and its bust in the early 2000s. The results show that even after controlling for individual characteristics before the sector?s boom, transitioning out of the IT sector to a non-IT industry generally resulted in a large wage penalty. However, IT service workers who transitioned to a non-IT industry still fared better than those who took a non-IT employment path. For IT manufacturing workers, there is ...
Working Paper
Killer Debt: The Impact of Debt on Mortality
This study analyzes the effect of individual finances (specifically creditworthiness and severely delinquent debt) on mortality risk. A large (approximately 170,000 individuals) subsample of a quarterly panel data set of individual credit reports is utilized in an instrumental variables design. The possibility of the reverse causality of bad health causing debt and death is removed by instrumenting for individual finances post 2011 using the exposure to the housing crisis based on their 2005 residence. Worsening creditworthiness and increases in severely delinquent debt are found to lead to ...
Journal Article
When things still don't add up
Working Paper
Is Our Fiscal System Discouraging Marriage? A New Look at the Marriage Tax
We develop, apply, and test a new measure of the marriage tax: the reduction in future spending from getting married. Our measure is a comprehensive, actuarial (expected) present value. It incorporates all major and most minor US tax and benefit programs, weighing the present value of additional net taxes from marrying along each marital survivor path by the path’s probability. And it assumes clone marriage—marrying oneself—to ensure the living-standard loss from marrying is unaffected by spousal choice. We calculate our marriage tax for young respondents using the Survey of Consumer ...
Working Paper
Freshman learning communities, college performance, and retention
This paper applies a standard treatment effects model to determine that participation in Freshman Learning Communities (FLCs) improves academic performance and retention. Not controlling for individual self-selection into FLC participation leads one to incorrectly conclude that the impact is the same across race and gender groups. Accurately assessing the impact of any educational program is essential in determining what resources institutions should devote to it.