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Journal Article
Modeling Behavioral Responses to COVID-19
Many models have been developed to forecast the spread of the COVID-19 virus. We present one that is enhanced to allow individuals to alter their behavior in response to the virus. We show how adding this feature to the model both changes the resulting forecast and informs our understanding of the appropriate policy response. We find that when left to their own devices, individuals do curb their social activity in the face of risk, but not as much as a government planner would. The planner fully internalizes the effect of all individuals’ actions on others in society, while individuals do ...
Journal Article
Two Approaches to Predicting the Path of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Is One Better?
We compare two types of models used to predict the spread of the coronavirus, both of which have been used by government officials and agencies. We describe the nature of the difference between the two approaches and their advantages and limitations. We compare examples of each type of model—the University of Washington IHME or “Murray” model, which follows a curve-fitting approach, and the Ohio State University model, which follows a structural approach.
Journal Article
Improving Epidemic Modeling with Networks
Many of the models used to track, forecast, and inform the response to epidemics such as COVID-19 assume that everyone has an equal chance of encountering those who are infected with a disease. But this assumption does not reflect the fact that individuals interact mostly within much narrower groups. We argue that incorporating a network perspective, which accounts for patterns of real-world interactions, into epidemiological models provides useful insights into the spread of infectious diseases.
Working Paper
On the Optimality of Differential Asset Taxation
How should a utilitarian government balance redistributive concerns with the need to provide incentives for business creation and investment? Should they tax business profits, the (risk-free) savings of owners, or some combination of both? To address this question, this paper presents a model in which the desirability of differential asset taxation emerges endogenously from the presence of agency frictions. I consider an environment in which entrepreneurs hire workers and rent capital to produce output subject to privately observed shocks and have the ability to both divert capital to private ...
Working Paper
On the Optimality of Differential Asset Taxation
In this paper I study the optimality of differential asset taxation in an environment with entrepreneurs and workers in which output is stochastic and entrepreneurs can misreport profits and abscond with capital. I show that a stationary efficient allocation may be implemented as an equilibrium with endogenous collateral constraints, transfers to newborns, and linear taxes on profits, investment, and interest. Further, these taxes differ from one another and serve distinct purposes. The profits tax shares risk and depends solely on the severity of the misreporting friction, while the ...
Working Paper
The Optimal Taxation of Business Owners
Business owners in the United States are disproportionately represented among the very wealthy and are exposed to substantial idiosyncratic risk. Further, recent evidence indicates business income primarily reflects returns to the human (rather than financial) capital of the owner. Motivated by these facts, this paper characterizes the optimal taxation of income and wealth in an environment where business income depends jointly on innate ability, luck, and the accumulated past effort exerted by the owner. I show that in (constrained) efficient allocations, more productive entrepreneurs ...
Working Paper
The Art of Temporal Approximation An Investigation into Numerical Solutions to Discrete and Continuous-Time Problems in Economics
A recent literature within quantitative macroeconomics has advocated the use of continuous-time methods for dynamic programming problems. In this paper we explore the relative merits of continuous-time and discrete-time methods within the context of stationary and nonstationary income fluctuation problems. For stationary problems in two dimensions, the continuous-time approach is both more stable and typically faster than the discrete-time approach for any given level of accuracy. In contrast, for convex lifecycle problems (in which age or time enters explicitly), simply iterating backwards ...
Working Paper
Time Use and the Efficiency of Heterogeneous Markups
What are the welfare implications of markup heterogeneity across firms? In standard monopolistic competition models, such heterogeneity implies inefficiency even in the presence of free entry. We enrich the standard model with heterogeneous firms so that preferences are non-separable in off-market time and market consumption and show that this changes the welfare implications of markup heterogeneity. In this context, homogeneity of markups is neither necessary nor sufficient for efficiency. The marginal cost of the marginal firm is weakly inefficiently high when off-market time and market ...
Working Paper
On the Optimality of Differential Asset Taxation
How should a government balance risk-sharing and redistributive concerns with the need to provide incentives for investment? Should they tax firm profits or individual savings, or simply levy lump-sum transfers? I address these questions in an environment with entrepreneurs and workers in which output is subject to privately observed shocks and firm owners can both misreport profits and abscond with a fraction of assets. When frictions in financial markets restrict private risk-sharing, the stationary efficient allocation may be implemented in a competitive equilibrium with collateral ...
Journal Article
The Evolution of Student Debt 2019–2022: Evidence from the Survey of Consumer Finances
In recent years, economists and policymakers have been interested in the burden of student debt across socioeconomic groups. In this Economic Commentary, we use the two most recent waves of the Survey of Consumer Finances, collected in 2019 and 2022, to study changes in the joint distribution of student debt and two measures of “ability-to-pay,” income and net worth. We find that between 2019 and 2022, both the fraction of families with student debt and real student debt per family were essentially unchanged, and aggregate student debt fell as a fraction of aggregate income and net worth. ...