Search Results
Working Paper
Recourse as Shadow Equity: Evidence from Commercial Real Estate Loans
We study the role that recourse plays in the commercial real estate loan contracts of the largest U.S. banks. We find that recourse is valued by lenders and is treated as a substitute for conventional equity. At origination, recourse loans have rate spreads that are at least 20 basis points lower and loan-to-value ratios that are around 3 percentage points higher than non-recourse loans. Dynamically, recourse affects loan modification negotiations by providing additional bargaining power to the lender. Recourse loans were half as likely to receive accommodation during the COVID-19 pandemic, ...
Working Paper
Intermediary Segmentation in the Commercial Real Estate Market
Banks, life insurers, and commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) lenders originate the vast majority of U.S. commercial real estate (CRE) loans. While these lenders compete in the same market, they differ in how they are funded and regulated, and therefore specialize in loans with different characteristics. We harmonize loan-level data across the lenders and review how their CRE portfolios differ. We then exploit cross-sectional differences in loan portfolios to estimate a simple model of frictional substitution across lender types. The substitution patterns in the model match well the ...
Working Paper
Commercial and residential land prices across the United States
We use a national dataset of land sales to construct land price indexes for 23 MSAs in the United States and for the aggregate of those MSAs. We construct the price indexes by estimating hedonic regressions with a large sample of land transactions dating back to the mid-1990s. The regressions feature a flexible method of controlling for spatial price patterns within an MSA. The resulting price indexes show a dramatic increase in both commercial and residential land prices over several years prior to their peak in 2006-07 and a steep descent since then. These fluctuations in land prices are ...
Discussion Paper
Nonresidential construction spending is likely not as weak as it seems
Unlike any other major component of GDP, private investment in nonresidential structures excluding drilling and mining (henceforth "NRS") has steadily declined since the start of 2020. Figure 1 shows the evolution of GDP as well as the main components of private domestic final demand since 2019.
Working Paper
Consumption responses to permanent and transitory shocks to house appreciation
We estimate the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) out of permanent and transitory shocks to house price appreciation. We consider two different models under which those shocks may affect consumption. In the first one, housing is a risky asset. In the second one, housing has a role as a consumption and as an investment good. In both, changes in the rate of house price appreciation may affect nonhousing consumption. Shocks to appreciation rates may happen when increases in future house prices are expected to differ from the current ones because heterogeneity, market failures or errors in ...
Report
An Analysis of the Impact of the Commercial Real Estate Concentration Guidance
This paper analyzes aspects of the interagency guidance issued in 2006, titled “Concentrations in Commercial Real Estate Lending, Sound Risk Management Practices.”1 The recent financial crisis and recession provide an opportunity to consider the relationship between the guidance and banks’ commercial real estate (CRE) concentrations and performance during the downturn. This paper also analyzes how the share of banking institutions with high levels of CRE concentration, as defined in the guidance, has changed over time (part 2); documents the effect of CRE concentrations on bank failures ...
Working Paper
Safe Collateral, Arm's-Length Credit : Evidence from the Commercial Real Estate Mortgage Market
When collateral is safe, there are less opportunities for things to go wrong. We examine matching between collateral and creditors in the commercial real estate mortgage market by comparing loans in commercial mortgage backed securities (CMBS) conduits and bank portfolios. We model CMBS financing as lower cost but less informed, such that only safe collateral is funded by CMBS. This prediction is tested using the 2007-2009 shutdown of the CMBS market as a natural experiment. The loans funded by banks that would have been securitized are less likely to default or be renegotiated, indicating ...
Conference Paper
A model of CMBS spreads
The market for securitized commercial mortgages is still fairly new, dating back only to the mid-1990s. As the market developed, and both rating agencies and investors became more comfortable with the product and the associated risks, the level of credit support behind given tranches steadily declined. At the same time on-the-run spreads also declined. This paper develops a series of models of both on-the-run CMBS spreads and spreads on newly-issued CMBS. Unlike the on-the run spreads, we can observed differences in credit quality and credit support for the newly-issued securities and ...
Working Paper
Safe Collateral, Arm’s-Length Credit: Evidence from the Commercial Real Estate Market
There are two main creditors in commercial real estate: arm?s-length investors and banks. We model commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) as the less informed source of credit. In equilibrium, these investors fund properties with a low probability of distress and banks fund properties that may require renegotiation. We test the model using the 2007-2009 collapse of the CMBS market as a natural experiment, when banks funded both collateral types. Our results show that properties likely to have been securitized were less likely to default or be renegotiated, consistent with the model. ...
Working Paper
Recourse as Shadow Equity: Evidence from Commercial Real Estate Loans
We study the role that recourse plays in the commercial real estate loan contracts of the largest U.S. banks. We find that recourse is valued by lenders and is treated as a substitute for conventional equity. At origination, recourse loans have rate spreads that are at least 20 basis points lower and loan-to-value ratios that are around 3 percentage points higher than non-recourse loans. Dynamically, recourse affects loan modification negotiations by providing additional bargaining power to the lender. Recourse loans were half as likely to receive accommodation during the COVID-19 pandemic, ...