Search Results
Working Paper
Monetary Policy and Economic Performance Since the Financial Crisis
We review the macroeconomic performance over the period since the Global Financial Crisis and the challenges in the pursuit of the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate. We characterize the use of forward guidance and balance sheet policies after the federal funds rate reached the effective lower bound. We also review the evidence on the efficacy of these tools and consider whether policymakers might have used them more forcefully. Finally, we examine the post-crisis experience of other major central banks with these policy tools.
Working Paper
International channels of the Fed’s unconventional monetary policy
Previous research has established that the Federal Reserve large scale asset purchases (LSAPs) significantly influenced international bond yields. This paper analyzes the channels through which these effects occurred. We use dynamic term structure models to decompose international yield changes into changes in term premia and expected short rates. The conclusions for most countries are model dependent. Models that impose a unit root tend to imply large signaling effects for Australia, Canada, Germany and the United States. Models that do not restrict persistence imply negligible signaling ...
Working Paper
Monetary Policy and Economic Performance since the Financial Crisis
We review macroeconomic performance over the period since the Global Financial Crisis and the challenges in the pursuit of the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate. We characterize the use of forward guidance and balance sheet policies after the federal funds rate reached the effective lower bound. We also review the evidence on the efficacy of these tools and consider whether policymakers might have used them more forcefully. Finally, we examine the post-crisis experience of other major central banks with these policy tools.
Journal Article
The great foreign exchange intervention of 2011
In response to volatile market conditions, the G-7 financial authorities announced late on March 17 that they would jointly intervene the next day to reduce the value of the yen, citing concerns about ?excess volatility and disorderly movements.? The yen immediately depreciated and traded with much less volatility in the subsequent week.
Journal Article
How Much Do Oil Prices Affect Inflation?
It is puzzling why large monthly or quarterly oil price changes predict very small changes in the CPI but daily oil prices predict large changes in breakeven inflation.
Journal Article
The difference between currency manipulation and monetary policy
But because this [Chinese] exchange rate policy is externally focused and relies heavily on regulations, which restrain normal market forces, it is reasonable to say that the policy constitutes currency manipulation for purposes of gaining an advantage in trade.
Journal Article
Okun's law: output and unemployment
U.S. output growth declined less than in most other industrialized countries while U.S. unemployment rose higher and faster than it did in most other major industrialized countries.
Journal Article
U.S. historical experience with deflation
The severe contractions and deflationary episodes that followed 19th century U.S. banking crises have shaped the U.S. perception of deflation.
Journal Article
Comparing international bond yields
Spanish and Italian government bond yields are not directly comparable to those of U.S. Treasuries because the bonds are paid in different currencies.
Journal Article
The effects of large-scale asset purchases on TIPS inflation expectations
Large-scale asset purchases may have limited power to raise TIPS-implied inflation expectations?something that might appeal to policymakers fighting deflation.