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Working Paper
Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Economic Fluctuations at the Zero Lower Bound
Doehr, Rachel; Martinez-Garcia, Enrique (2021-11-11)
We propose a TVP-VAR with stochastic volatility for the unemployment rate, core inflation and the federal funds rate augmented with survey-based interest rate expectations and uncertainty and a FAVAR with a wider set of observable variables and alternative monetary policy measures in order to explore U.S. monetary policy, accounting for the zero lower bound. We find that a rise in monetary policy uncertainty increases unemployment and lowers core inflation; the effects on unemployment in particular are robust (a gradual 0.4 percentage point increase), lasting more than two years after the ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 412

Working Paper
Modeling Time-Variation Over the Business Cycle (1960-2017): An International Perspective
Martinez-Garcia, Enrique (2018-10-01)
In this paper, I explore the changes in international business cycles with quarterly data for the eight largest advanced economies (U.S., U.K., Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Japan, and Canada) since the 1960s. Using a time-varying parameter model with stochastic volatility for real GDP growth and inflation allows their dynamics to change over time, approximating nonlinearities in the data that otherwise would not be adequately accounted for with linear models (Granger et al. (1991), Granger (2008)). With that empirical model, I document a period of declining macro volatility since the 1980s, ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 348

Working Paper
Forecasting local inflation with global inflation: when economic theory meets the facts
Martinez-Garcia, Enrique; Duncan, Roberto (2015-04-01)
This paper provides both theoretical insight as well as empirical evidence in support of the view that inflation is largely a global phenomenon. First, we show that inflation across countries incorporates a significant common factor captured by global inflation. Second, we show that in theory a role for global inflation in local inflation dynamics emerges over the business cycle even without common shocks, and under flexible exchange rates and complete international asset markets. Third, we identify a strong "error correction mechanism" that brings local inflation rates back in line with ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 235

Skimming U.S. Housing Froth a Delicate, Daunting Task
Martinez-Garcia, Enrique (2022-11-15)
The possibility of a sharp price correction leading to an economic contraction—were one to materialize—would further complicate Federal Reserve inflation-fighting efforts.
Dallas Fed Economics

Real-Time Market Monitoring Finds Signs of Brewing U.S. Housing Bubble
Coulter, Jarod; Grossman, Valerie; Martinez-Garcia, Enrique; Phillips, Peter C.B.; Shi, Shuping (2022-03-29)
There is growing cause for concern that U.S. house prices are again becoming unhinged from fundamentals.
Dallas Fed Economics

Working Paper
A cross-country quarterly database of real house prices: a methodological note
Martinez-Garcia, Enrique; Mack, Adrienne (2011)
We build from (mainly) publicly available national sources a database of (nominal and real) house prices?complemented with data on private disposable income (PDI)?for 19 advanced countries at a quarterly frequency, starting in the first quarter of 1975. We select a house price index for each country that is consistent with the U.S. FHFA quarterly nationwide house price index for existing single-family houses (formerly called OFHEO house price index), and extend the country series back to 1975 with available historical data whenever necessary. Each house price index is seasonallyadjusted over ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 99

Journal Article
Investment enhances emerging economies' living standards
Martinez-Garcia, Enrique (2015-04)
Investment helps countries at all levels of economic development reap productivity gains from new technologies and improve living standards. Investing to support innovation and a skilled workforce is as crucial for China as it is for the U.S.
Economic Letter , Volume 10 , Issue 5 , Pages 1-4

Journal Article
Technological progress is key to improving world living standards
Martinez-Garcia, Enrique (2013-06)
Technological progress appears to have shifted around 2001, when the median emerging economy?s growth rate accelerated and surpassed that of advanced economies.
Economic Letter , Volume 8 , Issue 4

Russia’s War on Ukraine Will Leave Scars on U.S., World Economies
Coulter, Jarod; Martinez-Garcia, Enrique (2022-05-17)
The conflict may alter the global economic and geopolitical order, leading to a new era of deglobalization.
Dallas Fed Economics

Working Paper
Global slack as a determinant of U.S. inflation
Wynne, Mark A.; Martinez-Garcia, Enrique (2012)
Resource utilization, or "slack," is widely held to be an important determinant of inflation dynamics. As the world has become more globalized in recent decades, some have argued that the concept of slack that is relevant is global rather than domestic (the "global slack hypothesis"). This line of argument is consistent with standard New Keynesian theory. However, the empirical evidence is fragile, at best, possibly because of a disconnect between empirical and theory-consistent measures of output gaps.
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 123

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