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Journal Article
Understanding the Recent Rise in Municipal Bond Yields
In late March, investors sold off municipal bonds at a rapid pace, depressing municipal bond prices and driving up their yields relative to U.S. Treasuries. We find that this initial investor run on the municipal bond market was likely due to increased liquidity demand rather than credit concerns, making the Federal Reserve’s early actions to relieve liquidity stress effective. Going forward, however, municipal bond prices will likely reflect increased credit concerns.
Journal Article
What's Driving Leveraged Loan Spreads?
Syndicated loan spreads have declined since the financial crisis, reducing the cost of credit for corporate borrowers. However, the combination of aggressive loan pricing and weaker credit protections has concerned market observers. We find that syndicated loan spreads have declined across loan and borrower types since the crisis. We also find the decline has been more pronounced for highly leveraged borrowers and has accelerated since 2016, especially for term loans.
Working Paper
Competition and Bank Fragility
Working Paper
Government Loan Guarantees during a Crisis: The Effect of the PPP on Bank Lending and Profitability
We study bank responses to the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) and its effects on lender balance sheets and profitability. To address the endogeneity between bank decisions and balance sheet effects, we develop a Bayesian joint model that examines the decision to participate, the intensity of participation, and ultimate balance sheet outcomes. Overall, lenders were driven by risk-aversion and funding capacity rather than profitability in their decision to participate and the intensity of their participation. Indeed, with greater participation intensity, banks experienced sizable growth in ...
Journal Article
Do Adverse Oil Price Shocks Change Loan Contract Terms for Energy Firms?
This article examined whether the relationship between creditworthiness and loan spreads for energy firms in the syndicated loan market changed after the 2014 oil-price shock. {{p}} The authors use syndicated loans, which are jointly funded by several financial institutions, because the syndicated loan market is a major source of debt financing for oil firms. Credit conditions tightened following the oil-price shock in mid-2014.
Working Paper
Examining the Financial Accelerator: Bank Responses to the 2014 Oil Price Shock
We exploit the 2014 decline in oil prices to understand how banks change contract terms for distressed firms. Using panel data on new and existing loans, we find that firms most financially affected by the 2010 oil price shock initially increased their use of credit. However, those same firms ultimately saw increased borrowing costs, smaller loan sizes, and fewer originations and renewals than less affected firms as the oil price decline persisted. We then demonstrate that credit spreads rose more than might be predicted based on changes in firm risk alone, suggesting that lending standards ...
Journal Article
Corporate Leverage and Investment
In this article, we examine the relationship between high corporate leverage and future firm investment spending on structures, machinery, and equipment. In other words, we examine how debt influences the growth of a firm’s capital stock or fixed assets. We find that, on average, more leveraged firms across industries tend to have lower levels of investment activity in the future. Specifically, we find that the negative relationship between debt and investment is strongest for the most highly indebted firms and is evident in both economic downturns and expansions.
Journal Article
PPP Raised Community Bank Revenue but Lowered Profitability
Community banks have played an outsized role in the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP), disbursing 37 percent of all PPP loans despite holding only 18 percent of outstanding bank loans. Although participation boosted community banks’ revenue by supporting asset and interest income growth, it appears to have lowered their profitability, at least initially: low interest rates and deferred fee collection on PPP loans reduced banks’ earning margins.
Journal Article
How Did Banks and Investors Respond to the 2020 Stress Test Results?
In this paper, I examine how the announcement of the payout restrictions influenced bank capital levels and stock prices. I find that the restrictions helped build capital levels at large banks but may have indirectly hampered stock price returns. First, I show that surprisingly strong income growth combined with the payout restrictions drovecapital to near record levels during this period. Second, I show that the payout restrictions had only a minimal effect on stock prices for most banks. Instead, the threat of increased supervisory stringency appears to have generated more persistent ...
Journal Article
Why Are Multifamily Property Prices Falling?
Multifamily property prices climbed to record levels in recent years amid low interest rates and surging housing demand. More recently, prices have retreated in the face of higher interest rates, slower rent growth, elevated operating expenses, and increased delivery of new units available for rent. However, the deterioration in these fundamentals does not fully explain recent property price declines, suggesting investors’ near-term outlooks have been pessimistic.