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Author:Kozlowski, Julian 

Beyond the Mean: Exploring Tail Risks in Inflation Expectations

An analysis of inflation expectations suggests that financial market participants see a 50% probability that CPI inflation could be higher than 2.5% over the next five years.
On the Economy

Journal Article
Assessing the Costs of Rolling Over Government Debt

The US government has $21.4 trillion in outstanding Treasury debt in bills, notes, and bonds. Given the federal funds rate is up 4-5% over the past year, how expensive will it be to roll over maturing Treasury debt at these higher rates?
Economic Synopses , Issue 13 , Pages 4 pages

Market Liquidity and the Quantity Theory of Money

A rising federal funds rate means there is less liquidity in the market, which could help reduce the inflation rate in the months ahead.
On the Economy

Rising Liquidity among U.S. Households and Its Policy Implications

Financially, fewer households appear to be living hand to mouth. This may have implications for the effectiveness of certain economic policies, such as stimulus spending.
On the Economy

Residential Segregation and the Black-White College Gap

Using an economic model, researchers find that racial wage disparities, the amenity externality and racial barriers to moving could help explain the Black-white gap in college attainment.
On the Economy

Corporate Bond Spreads and the Pandemic II: Heterogeneity across Sectors

The COVID-19 pandemic’s effects on firm borrowing costs have been heterogeneous, with some sectors being more affected than others.
On the Economy

Working Paper
Investment and Bilateral Insurance

Private information may limit insurance possibilities when two agents get together to pool idiosyncratic risk. However, if there is capital accumulation, bilateral insurance possibilities may improve because misreporting distorts investment. We show that if one of the Pareto weights is sufficiently large, that agent does not have incentives to misreport. This implies that, under some conditions, the full information allocation is incentive compatible when agents have equal Pareto weights. In the long run, either one of the agents goes to immiseration, or both agents’ lifetime utilities are ...
Working Papers , Paper 2013-001

The Comovement between Credit Spreads, Corporate Debt and Liquid Assets in Recent Crises

Credit spreads rose sharply during the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 crisis. But their movement with corporate debt and liquid assets differed during those two periods.
On the Economy

Journal Article
Stylized Facts on the Organization of Small Business Partnerships

The authors study the internal organization of small business partnerships and focus on the number of owners and ownership structure and the dynamics of these variables. They find that partnerships tend to have a small number of owners with equal distribution of ownership shares. Moreover, while partnerships with equally distributed shares tend to keep this distribution constant, those with unequally distributed shares tend to move toward more equal distribution over time. The authors highlight that these facts are in line with the theory of private information in small business partnerships ...
Review , Volume 98 , Issue 4 , Pages 297-310

Corporate Bond Spreads and the Pandemic IV: Liquidity Buffers

The cost of borrowing rose for most firms during the pandemic-related disruption of financial markets, but firms with greater liquidity have had smaller increases in credit spreads.
On the Economy

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