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Beyond the Mean: Exploring Tail Risks in Inflation Expectations
Kozlowski, Julian (2024-07-02)
An analysis of inflation expectations suggests that financial market participants see a 50% probability that CPI inflation could be higher than 2.5% over the next five years.
On the Economy

Journal Article
Assessing the Costs of Rolling Over Government Debt
Kozlowski, Julian; Jordan-Wood, Samuel (2023-06-02)
The US government has $21.4 trillion in outstanding Treasury debt in bills, notes, and bonds. Given the federal funds rate is up 4-5% over the past year, how expensive will it be to roll over maturing Treasury debt at these higher rates?
Economic Synopses , Issue 13 , Pages 4 pages

Market Liquidity and the Quantity Theory of Money
Kozlowski, Julian; Jordan-Wood, Samuel (2022-08-29)
A rising federal funds rate means there is less liquidity in the market, which could help reduce the inflation rate in the months ahead.
On the Economy

Rising Liquidity among U.S. Households and Its Policy Implications
Kozlowski, Julian; Jordan-Wood, Samuel (2024-05-06)
Financially, fewer households appear to be living hand to mouth. This may have implications for the effectiveness of certain economic policies, such as stimulus spending.
On the Economy

Residential Segregation and the Black-White College Gap
Gregory, Victoria; Kozlowski, Julian; Rubinton, Hannah; Jordan-Wood, Samuel (2023-11-02)
Using an economic model, researchers find that racial wage disparities, the amenity externality and racial barriers to moving could help explain the Black-white gap in college attainment.
On the Economy

Corporate Bond Spreads and the Pandemic II: Heterogeneity across Sectors
Ebsim, Mahdi; Kozlowski, Julian; Faria-e-Castro, Miguel (2020-04-14)
The COVID-19 pandemic’s effects on firm borrowing costs have been heterogeneous, with some sectors being more affected than others.
On the Economy

The Comovement between Credit Spreads, Corporate Debt and Liquid Assets in Recent Crises
Kozlowski, Julian; Faria-e-Castro, Miguel; Jordan-Wood, Samuel (2021-11-09)
Credit spreads rose sharply during the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 crisis. But their movement with corporate debt and liquid assets differed during those two periods.
On the Economy

Journal Article
Stylized Facts on the Organization of Small Business Partnerships
Espino, Emilio; Sanchez, Juan M.; Kozlowski, Julian (2016)
The authors study the internal organization of small business partnerships and focus on the number of owners and ownership structure and the dynamics of these variables. They find that partnerships tend to have a small number of owners with equal distribution of ownership shares. Moreover, while partnerships with equally distributed shares tend to keep this distribution constant, those with unequally distributed shares tend to move toward more equal distribution over time. The authors highlight that these facts are in line with the theory of private information in small business partnerships ...
Review , Volume 98 , Issue 4 , Pages 297-310

Corporate Bond Spreads and the Pandemic IV: Liquidity Buffers
Ebsim, Mahdi; Kozlowski, Julian; Faria-e-Castro, Miguel (2020-06-12)
The cost of borrowing rose for most firms during the pandemic-related disruption of financial markets, but firms with greater liquidity have had smaller increases in credit spreads.
On the Economy

Working Paper
The Impact of Racial Segregation on College Attainment in Spatial Equilibrium
Gregory, Victoria; Kozlowski, Julian; Rubinton, Hannah (2023-08-03)
This paper seeks to understand the forces that maintain racial segregation and the implications for the Black-White gap in college attainment. We incorporate race into an overlapping-generations spatial-equilibrium model with neighborhood spillovers. The model incorporates race in three ways: (i) a Black-White wage gap, (ii) an amenity externality—households care about the racial composition of their neighbors—and (iii) an additional barrier to moving for Black households. These forces quantitatively account for all of the racial segregation and 80% of the Black-White gap in college ...
Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers , Paper 077

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