Search Results

(refine search)

SORT BY: PREVIOUS / NEXT

All:
Title:
Author:
Abstract:
Keywords:

+ Add Search Parameter

Working Paper
The aggregate demand effects of short- and long-term interest rates
Kiley, Michael T. (2012)
I develop empirical models of the U.S. economy that distinguish between the aggregate demand effects of short- and long-term interest rates-one with clear "microfoundations" and one more loosely motivated. These models are estimated using government and private long-term bond yields. Estimation results suggest short- and long-term interest rates both influence aggregate spending. The results indicate that the short-term interest rate has a larger influence on economic activity, through its impact on the entire term structure, than term and risk premiums (for equal-sized movements in ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2012-54

Working Paper
Estimating the common trend rate of inflation for consumer prices and consumer prices excluding food and energy prices
Kiley, Michael T. (2008)
I examine the common trend in inflation for consumer prices and consumer prices excluding prices of food and energy. Both the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) indexes and the consumer price indexes (CPI) are examined. The statistical model employed is a bivariate integrated moving average process; this model extends a univariate model that fits the data on inflation very well. The bivariate model forecasts as well as the univariate models. The results suggest that the relationship between overall consumer prices, consumer prices excluding the prices of food and energy, and the common ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2008-38

Working Paper
Some Implications of Uncertainty and Misperception for Monetary Policy
López-Salido, J. David; Hebden, James; Erceg, Christopher J.; Kiley, Michael T.; Tetlow, Robert J. (2018-08-23)
When choosing a strategy for monetary policy, policymakers must grapple with mismeasurement of labor market slack, and of the responsiveness of price inflation to that slack. Using stochastic simulations of a small-scale version of the Federal Reserve Board?s principal New Keynesian macroeconomic model, we evaluate representative rule-based policy strategies, paying particular attention to how those strategies interact with initial conditions in the U.S. as they are seen today and with the current outlook. To do this, we construct a current relevant baseline forecast, one that is loosely ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2018-059

Working Paper
Financial capital and the macroeconomy: a quantitative framework
Kiley, Michael T.; Sim, Jae W. (2011)
Financial intermediation transforms short-term liquid assets into long-term capital assets. As a result, risk taking, in the form of long-term commitments despite unresolved short-term funding risk, is an essential element of intermediation. If such funding risk must be addressed by costly recapitalization and/or distressed asset sales due to capital market frictions, an increase in uncertainty can cause a disruption in the intermediation process by forcing risk-neutral intermediaries to behave in a risk-averse manner. Our analysis examines this behavior theoretically and empirically. We ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2011-27

Working Paper
Endogenous price stickiness and business cycle persistence
Kiley, Michael T. (1996)
Both imperfect information and sticky prices allow nominal shocks to act as business cycle impulses, but only sticky prices propagate the real effects of nominal shocks. A simple model of imperfect information and sticky prices developed herein indicates that high rates of inflation lead to less price stickiness, and hence less persistent output fluctuations. Estimation of the model, as well as simple autocorrelations of real output, indicate that indeed output fluctuations are less persistent in high inflation economies. These results lend little support to models in which output persistence ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 96-23

Working Paper
An Evaluation of the Inflationary Pressure Associated with Short- and Long-term Unemployment
Kiley, Michael T. (2014-03-21)
In the years following 2009, long-term unemployment has been very elevated while inflation has fallen only moderately, raising the question of whether the long-term unemployed exert less downward pressure on prices than the short-term unemployed, perhaps because such potential workers are disconnected from the labor market. However, empirical evidence is mixed. This analysis demonstrates that the typical approach, using national data, is incapable of discriminating the inflationary pressure exerted by short and long-term unemployment because the series are highly correlated, making inference ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2014-28

Discussion Paper
Monetary Policy Space in a Recession: Some Simple Interest Rate Arithmetic
Kiley, Michael T. (2020-01-08)
As an alternative, two recession scenarios are presented in which interest rates change from October 2019 levels by the same amount as seen, on average, around the 1990 and 2001 recessions.
FEDS Notes , Paper 2020-01-08-2

Working Paper
Monetary policy statements, Treasury yields, and private yields: before and after the zero lower bound
Kiley, Michael T. (2013)
Monetary policy actions since 2008 have influenced long-term interest rates through forward guidance and quantitative easing - both "unconventional" strategies. We examine whether the effect of such actions on Treasury yields have passed through to private yields to a degree comparable to experience before 2008. In order to perform this examination, we propose a strategy to identify the comovement between Treasury yields and private yields induced by monetary policy when an observable representing policy changes, such as changes in the interbank rate, is not available, or when other ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2013-16

Conference Paper
An estimated DSGE model of the US economy with an application to natural rate measures
Laforte, Jean-Philippe; Kiley, Michael T.; Edge, Rochelle M. (2005)
Proceedings

show more (32)

PREVIOUS / NEXT

Fed in Print

Search Results

FILTER BY year

FILTER BY Bank

FILTER BY Series

FILTER BY Content Type

FILTER BY Author

FILTER BY Jel Classification

FILTER BY Keywords