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Recent Trends in Banks’ Commercial Real Estate Exposure
U.S. bank holding companies that have the largest exposure to commercial real estate share some common characteristics. Our blog post explains.
Journal Article
Liquidity Dries Up
The Federal Reserve has been increasing the federal funds rate, but the interest rate banks pay on deposits have stood still, leading to outflows of bank deposits and the drying up of liquidity.
Rising Liquidity among U.S. Households and Its Policy Implications
Financially, fewer households appear to be living hand to mouth. This may have implications for the effectiveness of certain economic policies, such as stimulus spending.
Working Paper
An Empirical Analysis of the Cost of Borrowing
We examine borrowing costs for firms using a security-level database with bank loans and corporate bonds issued by U.S. companies. We find significant within-firm dispersion in borrowing rates, even after controlling for security and firm observable characteristics. Obtaining a bank loan is 132 basis points cheaper than issuing a bond, after accounting for observable factors. Changes in borrowing costs have persistent negative impacts on firm-level outcomes, such as investment and borrowing, and these effects vary across sectors. These findings contribute to our understanding of borrowing ...
Journal Article
Assessing the Costs of Rolling Over Government Debt
The US government has $21.4 trillion in outstanding Treasury debt in bills, notes, and bonds. Given the federal funds rate is up 4-5% over the past year, how expensive will it be to roll over maturing Treasury debt at these higher rates?
Journal Article
“Stress Testing” Banks on Commercial Real Estate
Recent research tests the effects of a large (hypothetical) drop in commercial real estate prices: Banks most affected would be small and the resulting noncompliance would apply to a small fraction of assets in the US banking system.
The Comovement between Credit Spreads, Corporate Debt and Liquid Assets in Recent Crises
Credit spreads rose sharply during the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 crisis. But their movement with corporate debt and liquid assets differed during those two periods.
Market Liquidity and the Quantity Theory of Money
A rising federal funds rate means there is less liquidity in the market, which could help reduce the inflation rate in the months ahead.
Journal Article
Commercial Real Estate: Where Are the Financial Risks?
Large banks, with assets over $100 billion, tend to have significantly lower exposure to commercial real estate market risks than the average commercial bank in the US.
Journal Article
Pandemic Labor Force Participation and Net Worth Fluctuations
The US labor force participation rate (LFPR) experienced a record drop during the early pandemic. While it has since recovered to 62.2 percent as of December 2022, it was still 1.41 percentage points below its pre-pandemic peak. This gap is explained mostly by a permanent decline in the LFPR for workers older than 55. This article argues that wealth effects driven by the historically high returns in major asset classes such as stocks and housing may have influenced these trends. Combining an estimated model of wealth effects on labor supply with micro data on balance sheet composition, we ...