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Journal Article
Assessing the Costs of Rolling Over Government Debt
The US government has $21.4 trillion in outstanding Treasury debt in bills, notes, and bonds. Given the federal funds rate is up 4-5% over the past year, how expensive will it be to roll over maturing Treasury debt at these higher rates?
Market Liquidity and the Quantity Theory of Money
A rising federal funds rate means there is less liquidity in the market, which could help reduce the inflation rate in the months ahead.
Rising Liquidity among U.S. Households and Its Policy Implications
Financially, fewer households appear to be living hand to mouth. This may have implications for the effectiveness of certain economic policies, such as stimulus spending.
Residential Segregation and the Black-White College Gap
Using an economic model, researchers find that racial wage disparities, the amenity externality and racial barriers to moving could help explain the Black-white gap in college attainment.
The Comovement between Credit Spreads, Corporate Debt and Liquid Assets in Recent Crises
Credit spreads rose sharply during the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 crisis. But their movement with corporate debt and liquid assets differed during those two periods.
Excess Retirements Continue despite Ebbing COVID-19 Pandemic
COVID-19 spurred a wave of retirements. Though the effects of the pandemic have subsided, the number of retirees remains well above what would have been expected from socioeconomic trends.
Journal Article
Commercial Real Estate: Where Are the Financial Risks?
Large banks, with assets over $100 billion, tend to have significantly lower exposure to commercial real estate market risks than the average commercial bank in the US.
Journal Article
Pandemic Labor Force Participation and Net Worth Fluctuations
The US labor force participation rate (LFPR) experienced a record drop during the early pandemic. While it has since recovered to 62.2 percent as of December 2022, it was still 1.41 percentage points below its pre-pandemic peak. This gap is explained mostly by a permanent decline in the LFPR for workers older than 55. This article argues that wealth effects driven by the historically high returns in major asset classes such as stocks and housing may have influenced these trends. Combining an estimated model of wealth effects on labor supply with micro data on balance sheet composition, we ...
Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine and Its Impact on Stock Prices
Since the two countries are global suppliers of raw materials, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine triggered a commodity price shock. Which stocks were most sensitive to it?
Retirements, Net Worth, and the Fall and Rise of Labor Force Participation
New research suggests that declining asset values in 2022 may have prompted older workers to return to the labor force.