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Journal Article
Pushing the Limit: Last-Minute Debt Limit Resolutions Have Increased Market Volatility and Uncertainty
Since reaching the debt limit in January 2023, the U.S. Treasury has used extraordinary measures to fund the government. However, the Treasury estimates those measures will be exhausted later this year. To gauge possible effects, we review economic and financial market outcomes during previous debt limit episodes. In each case, these episodes led to increased borrowing costs, financial market volatility, and uncertainty, particularly when the resolutions were prolonged.
Journal Article
A Method for Estimating the Price of Stablecoin Insurance
As crypto assets such as stablecoins have gained traction in recent years, they have also raised financial stability concerns. The attention has likely been motivated by a steady stream of stablecoin collapses, which are essentially bank runs. One approach to mitigating this risk could be to insure stablecoins in a way similar to bank deposits—that is, with a third-party guarantee to cover the depositor’s (or coin-holder’s) losses should the bank (or issuer) collapse. Because stablecoins have many functional similarities to bank deposits, the theory underlying deposit insurance pricing ...
Working Paper
Explaining the Life Cycle of Bank-Sponsored Money Market Funds: An Application of the Regulatory Dialectic
In this paper, we present empirical evidence of the regulatory dialectic in the prime institutional money market fund (PI-MMF) industry. The “regulatory dialectic”, developed by Kane (1977, 1981), describes how banks and regulators react to each other. For decades, a cap on commercial deposit interest rates fueled dramatic growth in bank-sponsored PI-MMFs as a form of shadow banking. During the growth period, banks with more commercial deposits were more likely to enter the PI-MMF industry in an effort to keep their commercial customers in affiliated subsidiaries. However, the 2008 crisis ...
Working Paper
Shadow Insurance? Money Market Fund Investors and Bank Sponsorship
We argue that bank holding companies (BHCs) extend shadow insurance to the prime institutional money market funds (PI-MMFs) they sponsor and that PI-MMFs price this shadow insurance by charging investors significantly higher expense ratios and paying lower net yields. We provide evidence that after September 2008, expense ratios at BHC-sponsored PI-MMFs increased more than at non-BHC-sponsored PI-MMFs. Despite higher expense ratios, BHC-sponsored PI-MMFs did not experience larger redemptions than non-BHC-sponsored PI-MMFs. In addition, we show that expenses ratios increased with BHCs’ ...
Journal Article
The Increasing Brick-and-Mortar Efficiency of Community Banks
The number of community banks in the United States has been declining steadily for decades, as has the share of total industry assets held by these banks. Because community banks play an outsized role in originating loans to small businesses, a continued decline in their numbers and asset holdings could constrain entrepreneurs’ access to credit—and, accordingly, constrain growth in the overall economy.One possible explanation for the declining number of community banks is that larger banks have benefitted from economies of scale and outpaced them in efficiency. Stefan Jacewitz examines ...
Journal Article
Rapid Declines in the Fed’s Overnight Reverse Repurchase (ON RRP) Facility May Start to Slow
The value of assets held at the Federal Reserve’s overnight reverse repurchase (ON RRP) facility has dropped by close to 60 percent from its peak in December 2022. Much of this drop is attributed to an increase in Treasury bill issuance to refill the Treasury General Account (TGA) after the most recent debt-limit debate. However, the TGA is not expected to grow much more, suggesting the rapid decline in assets held at the ON RRP could slow.
Working Paper
Shared Destinies? Small Banks and Small Business Consolidation
We identify a new source of bank consolidation in the United States. For decades, boththe financial and real sides of the economy have experienced considerable consolidation. Weshow that banking-sector consolidation is, in part, a consequence of real-sector consolidation;because small banks are a disproportionate source of small-business credit, they are disproportionately exposed to shocks to small-business growth. Using a Bartik instrument based onnational small-business trends and county-level industry exposure, we show that changes tothe real-side demand for small-business credit is ...