Making Sense of Recession Probabilities
Owyang, Michael T.; Hathhorn, Brooke (2025-05-27)
While recession probabilities can provide a snapshot of current economic conditions, relying on them to judge whether a recession is underway can be risky.
On the Economy

Pension or 401(k)? Retirement Plan Trends in the U.S. Workplace
Owyang, Michael T.; Bennett, Julie; Hathhorn, Brooke (2025-03-20)
An analysis describes the declining prevalence of defined-benefit pensions in favor of defined-contribution retirement plans in the U.S. workplace over time.
On the Economy

Do Government Shutdowns Affect Subsequent Data Revisions?
Owyang, Michael T.; Hathhorn, Brooke (2026-02-10)
This analysis looks at GDP revisions around U.S. government shutdowns to gauge whether these funding lapses seem to affect the quality of economic data.
On the Economy