Search Results

(refine search)

SORT BY: PREVIOUS / NEXT

All:
Title:
Author:
Abstract:
Keywords:

+ Add Search Parameter

Journal Article
When can we forecast inflation?
Fisher, Jonas D. M.; Liu, Chin Te; Zhou, Ruilin (2002-01)
This article reassesses recent work that has challenged the usefulness of inflation forecasts. The authors find that inflation forecasts were informative in 1977-84 and 1993-2000, but less informative in 1985-92. They also find that standard forecasting models, while generally poor at forecasting the magnitude of inflation, are good at forecasting the direction of change of inflation.
Economic Perspectives , Volume 26 , Issue Q I , Pages 32-44

Newsletter
Interest-only mortgages and speculation in hot housing markets
Barlevy, Gadi; Fisher, Jonas D. M. (2020-05-28)
Even as housing markets have temporarily shut down across the U.S. during the Covid-19 pandemic, housing remains a key sector that contributes disproportionately to fluctuations in overall economic activity and that will likely play an important role as the economy reopens. Interest in this market among research economists and policymakers intensified after the exceptional boom and bust in housing between 2003 and 2008. In this Chicago Fed Letter, we describe research in Barlevy and Fisher (2020)1 that examined patterns in the kinds of mortgages homebuyers took out in different cities during ...
Chicago Fed Letter , Issue 439 , Pages 6

Newsletter
Forecasting inflation with a lot of data
Fisher, Jonas D. M. (2000-03)
Chicago Fed Letter , Issue Mar

Working Paper
The role of real wages, productivity and fiscal policy in Germany's Great Depression 1928-1937
Fisher, Jonas D. M.; Hornstein, Andreas (2001)
We study the behavior of output, employment, consumption, and investment in Germany during the Great Depression of 1928-37. In this time period, real wages were countercyclical, and productivity and fiscal policy were procyclical. We use the neoclassical growth model to investigate how much these factors contribute to the Depression. We find that real wages, which were significantly above their market clearing levels, were the most important factor for the economic decline in the Depression. Changes in productivity and fiscal policy were also important for the decline and recovery. Even ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-01-07

Working Paper
Technology shocks matter
Fisher, Jonas D. M. (2002)
This paper uses the neoclassical growth model to identify the effects of technological change on the US business cycle. In the model there are two sources of technological change: neutral, which effects the production of all goods homogeneously, and investment-specific. Investment-specific shocks are the unique source of the secular trend in the real price of investment goods, while shocks to both kinds of technology are the only factors which affect labor productivity in the long run. Consistent with previous empirical work which considers only neutral shocks, the results suggest these ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP-02-14

Journal Article
The new view of growth and business cycles
Fisher, Jonas D. M. (1999-01)
Evidence on the cost of business equipment investment supports a new way of understanding growth and business cycles. The equipment price has been falling for most of the last 40 years and it tends to fall more the faster economy is growing. This suggests that technological change embodied in new capital equipment has a substantial effect on growth and business cycles.
Economic Perspectives , Volume 23 , Issue Q I , Pages 35-56

Newsletter
What are the implications of rising commodity prices for inflation and monetary policy?
Fisher, Jonas D. M.; Evans, Charles L. (2011-05)
The recent run-ups in oil and other commodity prices and their implications for inflation and monetary policy have grabbed the attention of many commentators in the media. Clearly, higher prices of food and energy end up in the broadest measures of consumer price inflation, such as the Consumer Price Index. Since the mid-1980s, however, sharp increases and decreases in commodity prices have had little, if any, impact on core inflation, the measure that excludes food and energy prices.
Chicago Fed Letter , Issue May

Newsletter
Some inflation scenarios for the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021
Fisher, Jonas D. M.; Melosi, Leonardo; Bianchi, Francesco (2021-04-13)
The American Rescue Plan Act (ARP) signed into law on March 11, 2021, authorized approximately $1.9 trillion in federal government spending. ARP is widely expected to boost economic growth over the next two to three years—and significantly so early on. The upswing in growth is likely to increase resource pressures and therefore consumer price inflation as well. The potential for this channel to raise inflation substantially has attracted the attention of economic commentators, including Olivier Blanchard and Lawrence Summers. But the magnitudes and persistence of the possible increases in ...
Chicago Fed Letter , Issue 453 , Pages 8

Working Paper
Algorithms for solving dynamic models with occasionally binding constraints
Fisher, Jonas D. M.; Christiano, Lawrence J. (1997)
A description and comparison of several algorithms for approximating the solution to a model in which inequality constraints occasionally bind. Their performance is evaluated using various parameterizations of the one-sector growth model with irreversible investment.
Working Papers (Old Series) , Paper 9711

Working Paper
Asset pricing lessons for modeling business cycles
Fisher, Jonas D. M.; Christiano, Lawrence J.; Boldrin, Michele (1995)
We develop a model which accounts for the observed equity premium and average risk-free rate, without implying counterfactually high risk aversion. The model also does well in accounting for business-cycle phenomena. With respect to the conventional measures of business-cycle volatility and comovement with output, the model does roughly as well as the standard business-cycle model. On two other dimensions, the model?s business-cycle implications are actually improved. Its enhanced internal propagation allows it to account for the fact that there is positive persistence in output growth, and ...
Working Papers , Paper 560

show more (1)

show more (25)

PREVIOUS / NEXT

Fed in Print

Search Results

FILTER BY year

FILTER BY Bank

FILTER BY Series

FILTER BY Content Type

FILTER BY Author

FILTER BY Jel Classification

FILTER BY Keywords