Working Paper
Long-Run Inflation Expectations
Abstract: Professional forecasters’ long-run inflation expectations overreact to news and exhibit persistent, predictable biases in forecast errors. A model incorporating overconfidence in private information and a persistent expectations bias—which generates persistent forecast errors across most forecasters—accounts for these two features of the data, offering a valuable tool for studying long-run inflation expectations. Our analysis highlights substantial, time-varying heterogeneity in forecasters’ responses to public information, with sensitivity declining across all forecasters when monetary policy is constrained by the effective lower bound. The model provides a framework to evaluate whether policymakers’ communicated inflation paths are consistent with anchored long-run expectations.
JEL Classification: E31; D83; E52; E37;
https://doi.org/10.21033/wp-2025-03
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File(s): File format is application/pdf https://doi.org/10.21033/wp-2025-03
Bibliographic Information
Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Part of Series: Working Paper Series
Publication Date: 2025-03
Number: WP 2025-03