Discussion Paper
Forecasting During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Structural Analysis of Downside Risk
Bodenstein, Martin; Cuba-Borda, Pablo A.; Faris, Jay; Gornemann, Nils M. (2021-02-01)
The global collapse in economic activity triggered by individual and policy-mandated responses to the spread of COVID-19 is unprecedented both in scale and origin. At the time of writing, U.S. GDP is expected by professional forecasters to contract a staggering 6 percent over the course of 2020 driven by its 32 percent collapse in the second quarter (measured at an annual rate).
FEDS Notes , Paper 2021-02-01-2