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Discussion Paper

Forecasting During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Structural Analysis of Downside Risk


Abstract: The global collapse in economic activity triggered by individual and policy-mandated responses to the spread of COVID-19 is unprecedented both in scale and origin. At the time of writing, U.S. GDP is expected by professional forecasters to contract a staggering 6 percent over the course of 2020 driven by its 32 percent collapse in the second quarter (measured at an annual rate).

https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.2806

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Bibliographic Information

Provider: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)

Part of Series: FEDS Notes

Publication Date: 2021-02-01

Number: 2021-02-01-2