Journal Article
The outlook: no boom, no doom
Leovic, Lydia K.; Erceg, John J. (1991-12)
A summation of the forecasts of 25 economists meeting at the October 1991 meeting of the Fourth District Economists' Roundtable, with the consensus that a mild recovery is under way.
Economic Commentary , Issue Dec

Journal Article
Roundtable's Rx for the economy: first, do no harm
Erceg, John J.; Martin, John B. (1992-02)
An overview of the January 24, 1992 meeting of the Fourth District Economists' Roundtable, at which participants discussed how longer-term structural adjustments taking place in many of the nation's industries may be restraining the recovery.
Economic Commentary , Issue Feb

Journal Article
1991 outlook: mild recession, mild recovery
Erceg, John J. (1991-02)
A summary of the January 18, 1991 Fourth District Economists' Roundtable, noting the panelists' forecasts for the economy in the wake of uncertainties surrounding the Persian Gulf War.
Economic Commentary , Issue Feb

Journal Article
The economic outlook: growth weakens, inflation unchanged
Erceg, John J.; Nickels, Paul J. (1990-03)
A summation of the forecasts of 27 economists made at the January 26, 1990 meeting of the Fourth District Economists' Roundtable, with major emphasis on the inflation outlook, GNP growth, and capital spending.
Economic Commentary , Issue Mar

Journal Article
Federal budget deficits: sources and forecasts
Bernard, Theodore G.; Erceg, John J. (1988-03)
An examination of two different government forecasts of the five-year federal budget outlook, both of which show persistent large deficits, and a recommendation for additional policy actions in order to achieve annual deficit targets.
Economic Commentary , Issue Mar

Journal Article
Forecasting turning points with leading indicators
Erceg, John J.; Anderson, Gerald H. (1989-10)
An examination of the Composite Index of Leading Indicators and its record as a forecasting tool. The authors conclude that while the index can provide useful information about business peaks and troughs, its value is limited by a tendency to give false signals, and its worth greatly increases when used in combination with other indexes.
Economic Commentary , Issue Oct

Journal Article
The outlook after the oil shock: between Iraq and a soft place
Leovic, Lydia K.; Erceg, John J. (1990-10)
A summation of the September 14, 1990, meeting of the Fourth District Economists' Roundtable, at which panelists discussed the economic outlook in light of Iraq's invasion of Kuwait.
Economic Commentary , Issue Oct

Journal Article
Productivity, costs, and international competitiveness
Bernard, Theodore G.; Erceg, John J. (1988-11)
A review of how moderation in U.S. manufacturing labor costs and record growth in manufacturing productivity have helped to improve the U.S. trade deficit in recent years, and an evaluation of how well domestic producers have performed relative to their major trading partners.
Economic Commentary , Issue Nov

Journal Article
Current outlook: sustained growth, sustained inflation
Erceg, John J.; Nickels, Paul J. (1990-06)
A report on the May 4, 1990 meeting of the Fourth District Economists' Roundtable, at which participants predicted a stronger long-term growth rate for the national economy through 1991 and an inflation rate of about 4 percent.
Economic Commentary , Issue Jun

Journal Article
How credible are capital spending surveys as forecasts?
Erceg, John J.; Anderson, Gerald H. (1990-12)
A comparison of the reliability of the Commerce Department's capital spending survey with that of several alternative forecasts.
Economic Commentary , Issue Dec