Search Results
Journal Article
The government-sponsored enterprises: past and future
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac's role in the housing bubble and financial crisis remains controversial. Did they precipitate or at least worsen the crisis? How do their benefits compare against their losses? Ronel Elul traces their evolution and actions and outlines reform proposals.
Working Paper
Owner-Occupancy Fraud and Mortgage Performance
We use a matched credit bureau and mortgage dataset to identify occupancy fraud in residential mortgage originations, that is, borrowers who misrepresented their occupancy status as owner-occupants rather than residential real estate investors. In contrast to previous studies, our dataset allows us to show that – during the housing bubble – such fraud was broad based, appearing in the government-sponsored enterprise market and in loans held on bank portfolios as well, and increases the effective share of investors by 50 percent. We show that a key benefit of investor fraud was obtaining a ...
Working Paper
Housing Wealth and Consumption: The Role of Heterogeneous Credit Constraints
We quantify the role of heterogeneity in households’ financial constraints in explaining the large decline in consumption between 2006 and 2009. Using household-level data, we show that in addition to a direct effect of changes in house prices, there are sizable indirect effects from general equilibrium feedback and bank health. About 60% of the aggregate response of consumption to changes in house prices is explained by ex-ante and ex-post financial constraints, where only a specific set of households face binding ex-post financial constraints as a result of declining house prices. We find ...
Working Paper
Bankruptcy: is it enough to forgive or must we also forget?
In many countries, lenders are restricted in their access to information about borrowers' past defaults. The authors study this provision in a model of repeated borrowing and lending with moral hazard and adverse selection. They analyze its effects on borrowers' incentives and access to credit, and identify conditions under which it is optimal. The authors argue that ?forgetting? must be the outcome of a regulatory intervention by the government. Their model's predictions are consistent with the cross-country relationship between credit bureau regulations and the provision of credit, as well ...
Working Paper
Owner-Occupancy Fraud and Mortgage Performance
We identify occupancy fraud — borrowers who misrepresent their occupancy status as owner-occupants rather than investors — in residential mortgage originations. Unlike previous work, we show that fraud was prevalent in originations not just during the housing bubble, but also persists through more recent times. We also demonstrate that fraud is broad-based and appears in government-sponsored enterprise and bank portfolio loans, not just in private securitization; these fraudulent borrowers make up one-third of the effective investor population. Occupancy fraud allows riskier borrowers to ...
Working Paper
What \"triggers\" mortgage default?
This paper assesses the relative importance of two key drivers of mortgage default: negative equity and illiquidity. To do so, the authors combine loan-level mortgage data with detailed credit bureau information about the borrower's broader balance sheet. This gives them a direct way to measure illiquid borrowers: those with high credit card utilization rates. The authors find that both negative equity and illiquidity are significantly associated with mortgage default, with comparably sized marginal effects. Moreover, these two factors interact with each other: The effect of illiquidity on ...
Journal Article
What have we learned about mortgage default?
By the end of 2009, one out of every 11 mortgages was seriously delinquent or in foreclosure. Economists have devoted considerable energy over the past several years to understanding the underlying causes of this increase in defaults. One goal is to provide a guide to dealing with the existing problems. In addition, a better understanding may help avoid future problems. In ?What Have We Learned About Mortgage Default?? Ronel Elul reviews recent research that has shed light on two areas: the extent to which securitization is responsible for the increase in default rates; and the relative ...
Journal Article
Collateral Damage: House Prices and Consumption During the Great Recession
Did a decline in house prices cause the Great Recession? And if so, how? Credit constraints may be the key to answering those questions
Journal Article
Residential mortgage default
In ?Residential Mortgage Default,? Ronel Elul discusses the models that economists have developed to help us understand the default risk inherent in home mortgages and how default risk and house prices are related. He also applies these models to show how falling house prices would affect mortgage default rates today and explores the impact that rising default rates would have on financial institutions and other participants in the mortgage market. ; Also issued as Payment Cards Center Discussion Paper No. 06-10
Journal Article
The economics of asset securitization
Ronel Elul explains why asset-backed securities exist and discusses some reasons for their common structure. Elul notes that despite well-developed theories on the what and why of securitization, more research is needed. In particular, additional research could uncover the effect that government regulation and bankruptcy law have on securitization.