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Journal Article
The Texas economy beats expectations
Journal Article
Regional update
Journal Article
The Texas economy: an overview of '96 and outlook for '97
Journal Article
The 1997 Texas economy beats expectations
Journal Article
Regional update
Journal Article
Regional update
Working Paper
The use and abuse of 'real-time' data in economic forecasting
We distinguish between three different ways of using real-time data to estimate forecasting equations and argue that the most popular approach should generally be avoided. The point is illustrated with a model that uses monthly industrial production, employment, and retail sales data to predict real GDP growth. When the model is estimated using our preferred method, its out-of-sample forecasting performance is superior to that obtained using conventional estimation and compares favorably with that of the Blue-Chip consensus.
Working Paper
The use and abuse of \"real-time\" data in economic forecasting
We distinguish between three different ways of using real-time data to estimate forecasting equations and argue that the most frequently used approach should generally be avoided. The point is illustrated with a model that uses monthly observations of industrial production, employment, and retail sales to predict real GDP growth. When the model is estimated using our preferred method, its out-of-sample forecasting performance is clearly superior to that obtained using conventional estimation, and compares favorably with that of the Blue-Chip consensus.