Search Results
Working Paper
China's export growth and U.S. trade policy
This paper examines how US special import restrictions affect the growth of China's exports to countries other than the US. We estimate an empirical model of trade deflection and trade depression of roughly 5100 commodities exported by China to 37 countries between 1992 and 2001. Our estimation yields evidence that US trade restrictions deflect Chinese exports to third, non-US markets. Imposition of a US antidumping duty against China leads the growth rate of targeted commodities to increase approximately 25 percentage points. Our results on the deflection of Chinese exports vary across ...
Working Paper
Cyclical dumping and U.S. antidumping protection: 1980-2001
In this paper, I test the theory that weak economic conditions in a foreign economy cause cyclical dumping, i.e., the temporary sale of products in a trading partner's economy at a price below average total cost. Although I am unable to observe prices or costs directly, a novel identification strategy allows me to uncover evidence of cyclical dumping. Using country- specific information on foreign economic shocks in manufacturing industries, filing decisions by the US industry, and antidumping decisions by the US government, I am able to identify strong evidence of cyclical dumping. After ...
Working Paper
Antidumping policy under imperfect competition
As average tariff rates have fallen, countries have increasingly turned to GATT-sanctioned ``special protection'' - especially antidumping duties - to restrict imports when import volumes increase suddenly. In this paper, I analyze a model of dumping among imperfectly competitive firms that face stochastic demand. I show that an antidumping duty can improve an importing-country's welfare when it faces dumping caused by weak foreign demand. Interestingly, the antidumping duty does not completely stem the tide of dumped imports, but it improves welfare through shifting some of the dumping ...
Working Paper
The agreement on subsidies and countervailing measures: tying one's hands through the WTO
Why would governments agree to restrict their own discretion in setting domestic policies as part of a trade agreement? This paper examines the welfare consequences of the GATT's Agreement on Subsidies and Countervailing Measures (SCM). If countries which join a trade agreement are given free reign over the use of domestic production subsidies, then after negotiating tariff reductions, governments could undermine the agreement by introducing production subsidies to import-competing producers that effectively act as trade barriers. The SCM restricts the use of domestic subsidies by countries ...
Journal Article
The U.S. trade deficit: made in China?
Rapid growth of the U.S. bilateral trade deficit with China has promoted a widespread view that the overall trade deficit is "made in China." The authors examine the probable consequences of increased protection directed toward U.S. imports from China. Their appraisal of recent and prospective U.S. trade policy focuses on textiles and apparel?sectors where the growth of imports from China has been prominent. They also consider the likely effects of yuan appreciation on the bilateral and overall trade deficits.
Working Paper
Emerging economies, trade policy, and macroeconomic shock
This paper estimates the impact of macroeconomic shocks on the trade policies of thirteen major emerging economies over 1989-2010; by 2010, these WTO member countries collectively accounted for 21 percent of world merchandise imports and 22 percent of world GDP. We examine determinants of carefully constructed, bilateral measures of new import protection imposed at the extensive margin. New import restrictions on products arise through the temporary trade barriers (TTBs) ? antidumping, safeguards, and countervailing duties ? that have become some of the most important time-varying trade ...
Working Paper
Why are safeguards needed in a trade agreement?
This paper reviews the theoretical and empirical literature on the use of safeguards in a trade agreement. It then analyzes the available data on the use of safeguards by WTO members to examine two hypotheses in the economics literature, that safeguards improve welfare by facilitating tariff reductions and that safeguards improve welfare by providing insurance against adverse economic shocks. I find that countries which undertook larger tariff reductions during the Uruguay Round conducted more safeguards investigations after the WTO was established. However, this result is not robust across ...
Working Paper
Trade deflection and trade depression
This is the first paper to empirically examine whether the United States' imposition of a special import restraint distorts foreign exports and thus affects world trade flows. We first develop a theoretical model of worldwide trade in which the imposition of a special import restraint by one country - an antidumping duty or a safeguard measure - causes significant distortions in world trade flows. We then empirically test this model by investigating the effect of US special import restraints on Japanese exports of roughly 3500 commodities into 29 countries between 1992 and 2001. Our ...
Working Paper
Self-enforcing trade agreements: evidence from antidumping policy
This paper empirically examines how governments make trade policy adjustments under a self-enforcing trade agreement in the presence of economic shocks. Using data on US antidumping (AD) policy formation between 1997-2006, we find that US antidumping policy is often consistent with the time-varying ?cooperative? tariff increases modeled in the self-enforcing trade agreement of Bagwell and Staiger (1990). Estimates of an empirical model of US antidumping indicate that the likelihood of a US antidumping duty is increasing in the size of the unexpected import surge, decreasing in the volatility ...