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Break-even employment declined after immigration changes
Recent employment reports show U.S. payroll employment growth has cooled from its torrid pace in previous years, raising the question of whether this signals a healthy rebalancing or the start of a concerning slowdown.
Break-even employment declines as unauthorized immigration outflows continue
For policymakers, interpreting labor market conditions increasingly requires looking beyond headline payroll growth and incorporating timely measures of immigration and labor supply.
Climbing the employment ladder tough when bottom rung is broken
Recent labor market data appear to reflect a low-hire, low-fire equilibrium. Because aggregate layoffs remain low by historical standards, the upward drift in the unemployment rate over the past two years is often viewed as a benign normalization process rather than a cyclical vulnerability.
Marrying for Money Ends Up Reducing Income Inequality
The marriage market constitutes a way to ameliorate income inequality in the U.S. and to create bridges across the income ladder.
Economics of Love: Rejection Worth Chance at Dream Date
With the advance of social networks and increasing prevalence of online dating, the question of how men and women match up has gained importance in economics and society.
Does Employers’ Worker Poaching Explain the Beveridge Curve’s Odd Behavior?
Increased worker job-hopping may help explain the odd-shaped post-COVID Beveridge curve and the underlying employment behavior it depicts.
Revisiting the odd behavior of the Beveridge curve as unemployment stays low
At first glance, it seems unlikely that the unemployment rate would remain stable if the number of job vacancies decreased. However, such a scenario played out recently as the number of firms seeking to fill positions by poaching employees from other firms increased, while the ranks of the unemployed remained relatively stable.
Surging population growth from immigration may have little effect on inflation
U.S. population growth increased sharply recently following to a wave of immigration. This article examines what this surprise immigration surge could mean for the macroeconomy.
Journal Article
Long view of China suggests inevitable slowdown
Market reforms account for almost half of China?s growth miracle since 1978. However, the pace of expansion is bound to slow down as China approaches the technological frontier.
Journal Article
Is the Next Recession Around the Corner? Probably Not
A ?profits recession? often predicts a real recession. A view of recessions as gluts of competition explains why this time a real recession is not imminent.