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Break-even employment declined after immigration changes
Recent employment reports show U.S. payroll employment growth has cooled from its torrid pace in previous years, raising the question of whether this signals a healthy rebalancing or the start of a concerning slowdown.
Working Paper
The Dual Beveridge Curve
The U.S. Beveridge curve’s recent outward shift has puzzled economists. We argue that the key stylized fact requiring a new framework is the divergence between surging vacancies and stable hires from unemployment. We propose a dual-vacancy model that attributes this divergence to a rising share of “poaching” vacancies targeted at employed workers. The model’s core identification reveals a disconnect: the data force a conclusion that poaching vacancies account for most vacancy fluctuations, yet have a surprisingly small impact on actual job-to-job hiring. This mechanism is validated by ...