Search Results
Journal Article
A basic analysis of the new protectionism
A discussion of the costs associated with trade restraint, focusing on devices currently used or recently proposed in the United States.
Journal Article
The decline in U.S. agricultural exports
An analysis of factors that produced a 40 percent drop in U.S. agricultural exports between 1981 and 1986, with a discussion of the potential effects of dollar depreciation and the 1985 Food Security Act.
Journal Article
How credible are capital spending surveys as forecasts?
A comparison of the reliability of the Commerce Department's capital spending survey with that of several alternative forecasts.
Journal Article
Two neglected implications of dollar depreciation
An estimation of the costs and benefits that dollar depreciation imposes through changes in the prices of imports and exports, and through changes in the potential purchasing power of U.S. international assets and liabilities.
Journal Article
Forecasting turning points with leading indicators
An examination of the Composite Index of Leading Indicators and its record as a forecasting tool. The authors conclude that while the index can provide useful information about business peaks and troughs, its value is limited by a tendency to give false signals, and its worth greatly increases when used in combination with other indexes.
Journal Article
Is the rust belt's revival real?
An exploration of the causes of the improved performance of the Great Lakes region in the 1990-91 recession relative to past economic downturns, and a prediction that the mild levels and duration of employment loss posted here during the past two years cannot be assured to continue in the next recession.
Journal Article
Solutions to the international debt problem
A general discussion of the nature of the international debt problem and an analysis of a number of proposals for solving it.
Journal Article
Should the United States hold foreign currency reserves?
An argument that for countries with well-developed money markets and flexible exchange rates, there is little to be gained from holding a vast foreign exchange portfolio and intervening in the world's currency markets.
Journal Article
Foreign capital inflows: another Trojan horse?
An analysis of the role of foreign investment in U.S. resource allocation, finding that the large influx of foreign capital in the 1980s has been used predominantly to fund domestic investment and consumer investment spending.
Journal Article
Oil, the economy, and monetary policy
An examination of the theoretical impact of an oil shortage on the U.S. economy and the problems that such shortages present for monetary policy.