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Journal Article
Population migration in the United States: a survey of research

Economic Review , Issue Jan , Pages 12-21

Journal Article
Global banks, local crises: bad news from Argentina

Banking crises have been a recurrent phenomenon in Latin America over the past few decades. Some have argued that the internationalization of the banking sector has ushered in a new era: what used to be systemic risk from the perspective of local banks with undiversified portfolios might no longer be systemic from the standpoint of large international banks. ; Argentina's experience shows that the presence of international banks was not enough to prevent local banking crises and sizable losses to depositors. The "bad news" from Argentina, this article argues, is that depositors in emerging ...
Economic Review , Volume 87 , Issue Q3 , Pages 89-106

Journal Article
Path-dependent options

Economic Review , Issue Mar , Pages 29-34

Working Paper
A closer look at nonparticipants during and after the Great Recession

This paper uses matched individual-level data from the Current Population Survey to determine that around the 2008 recession, there was a significant upward shift in trend of the share of labor force leavers giving "Schooling" and "Other" as the reason for absence from the labor market. This trend shift is observed primarily among workers between the ages of 25 and 54 and is widespread across all educational groups with at least a high school degree. In addition, the upward shift in the trend of the schooling reason share occurred among workers previously employed in occupations and ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2012-10

Working Paper
Foreclosure externalities: Some new evidence

In a recent set of influential papers, researchers have argued that residential mortgage foreclosures reduce the sale prices of nearby properties. We revisit this issue using a more robust identification strategy combined with new data that contain information on the location of properties secured by seriously delinquent mortgages and information on the condition of foreclosed properties. We find that while properties in virtually all stages of distress have statistically significant, negative effects on nearby home values, the magnitudes are economically small, peak before the distressed ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2012-11

Working Paper
Comparing New Keynesian models in the Euro area: a Bayesian approach

This paper estimates and compares four versions of the sticky price New Keynesian model for the Euro area, using a Bayesian approach as described in Rabanal and Rubio-Ramrez (2003). We find that the average duration of price contracts is between four and eight quarters, similar to the one estimated in the United States, while price indexation is found to be smaller. On the other hand, average duration of wage contracts is estimated to between one and two quarters, lower than the one found for the United States, while wage indexation is higher. Finally, the marginal likelihood indicates that ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper , Paper 2003-30

Conference Paper
The health care challenge: some perspectives from behavioral economics

National health care goals generally include providing broad access to appropriate amounts of high-quality health care at appropriate cost to the ultimate payers. Yet all countries, regardless of how they deliver and finance health care, struggle to achieve a sustainable balance among the implicit tradeoffs. Does this struggle stem from the limited scope for competition in health care or from information asymmetries? Or does it simply reflect the inherent difficulty of measuring health care output and quality? Alternatively, does it result from deep-seated human behavior - a tendency for ...
Conference Series ; [Proceedings] , Volume 50 , Issue Jun , Pages 61-75

Briefing
Getting to Work in New England: Commuting Patterns across the Region

Commuting is nearly ubiquitous across New England. Employers in cities and towns large and small depend on workers who commute from communities near and far. Communities, in turn, rely on employers located in cities and towns scattered in every direction to provide jobs for their residents. Workers may choose to live in a city other than where they work for a host of reasons, including housing and transportation options, school preferences, and work locations of a partner or spouse. This Regional Brief analyzes data on current commuting patterns, using 2022 New England data primarily. While ...
New England Public Policy Center Regional Brief , Paper 2025-2

Journal Article
Techno babel: the technology-driven economy

Regional Review , Issue Fall , Pages 18-24

Working Paper
Forecasting U.S. Economic Activity with a Small Information Set

We provide a parsimonious setup for forecasting U.S. GDP growth and the unemployment rate based on a few fundamental drivers. This setup yields forecasts that are reasonably accurate compared with private-sector and Federal Reserve forecasts over the 1984–2019 and post COVID-19 pandemic periods. This result is achieved by jointly estimating the processes for GDP growth and the unemployment rate, with the constraint that GDP and unemployment follow Okun’s law in first differences. This setup can be easily extended to replace the variables in the information set with factors that might ...
Working Papers , Paper 25-4

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