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Working Paper
Domestic Lending and the Pandemic: How Does Banks' Exposure to Covid-19 Abroad Affect Their Lending in the United States?
Temesvary, Judit; Wei, Andrew (2021-08-24)
We study how U.S. banks' exposure to the economic fallout due to governments' response to Covid-19 in foreign countries has affected their credit provision to borrowers in the United States. We combine a rarely accessed dataset on U.S. banks' cross-border exposure to borrowers in foreign countries with the most detailed regulatory ("credit registry") data that is available on their U.S.-based lending. We compare the change in the U.S. lending of banks that are more vs. less exposed to the pandemic abroad, during and after the onset of Covid-19 in 2020. We document strong spillover effects: ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2021-056

Report
Sovereign risk and firm heterogeneity
Bai, Yan; Arellano, Cristina; Bocola, Luigi (2017-03-22)
This paper studies the recessionary effects of sovereign default risk using firm-level data and a model of sovereign debt with firm heterogeneity. Our environment features a two-way feedback loop. Low output decreases the tax revenues of the government and raises the risk that it will default on its debt. The associated increase in sovereign interest rate spreads, in turn, raises the interest rates paid by firms, which further depresses their production. Importantly, these effects are not homogeneous across firms, as interest rate hikes have more severe consequences for firms that are in need ...
Staff Report , Paper 547

Conference Paper
Crowding out redefined: the role of reserve accumulation
Reinhart, Carmen M.; Tashiro, Takeshi (2013-11)
It is well understood that investment serves as a shock absorber at the time of crisis. The duration of the drag on investment, however, is perplexing. For the nine Asian economies we focus on in this study, average investment/GDP is about 6 percentage points lower during 1998-2012 than its average level in the decade before the crisis; if China and India are excluded, the estimated decline exceeds 9 percent. We document how in the wake of crisis home bias in finance usually increases markedly as public and private sectors look inward when external financing becomes prohibitively costly, ...
Proceedings , Issue Nov , Pages 1-43

Working Paper
Quantifying Risks to Sovereign Market Access: Methods and Challenges
Erce, Aitor; Zigraiova, Diana; Jiang, Xu (2020-02-10)
In this paper we use data from the euro area to study episodes when sovereigns lose market access. We construct a detailed dataset with potential indicators of market access tensions, and evaluate their ability to forecast episodes when market access is lost, using various econometric approaches. We find that factors associated with high market access tensions are not limited to financial markets, but also encompass developments in global demand, macroeconomic conditions and the fiscal stance. Using the top-performing indicators, we construct a number of market tension indices and use them as ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 377

Working Paper
Institutional Investors, the Dollar, and U.S. Credit Conditions
Schmidt-Eisenlohr, Tim; Niepmann, Friederike (2019-04-22)
This paper documents that an appreciation of the U.S. dollar is associated with a reduction in the supply of commercial and industrial loans by U.S. banks. An increase in the broad dollar index by 2.5 points (one standard deviation) reduces U.S. banks' corporate loan originations by 10 percent. This decline is driven by a reduction in the demand for loans on the secondary market where prices fall and liquidity worsens when the dollar appreciates, with stronger effects for riskier loans. Today, the main buyers of U.S. corporate loans---and, hence, suppliers of funding for these loans---are ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1246

Report
The international transmission of monetary policy
Buch, Claudia M.; Bussiere, Matthieu; Goldberg, Linda S.; Hills, Robert (2018-03-01)
This paper presents the novel results from an internationally coordinated project by the International Banking Research Network (IBRN) on the cross-border transmission of conventional and unconventional monetary policy through banks. Teams from seventeen countries use confidential micro-banking data for the years 2000 through 2015 to explore the international transmission of monetary policies of the United States, the euro area, Japan, and the United Kingdom. Two other studies use international data with different degrees of granularity. International spillovers into lending to the private ...
Staff Reports , Paper 845

Journal Article
Labor Force Exiters around Recessions: Who Are They?
Gregory, Victoria (2023-01-20)
This article identifies workers who experienced a job separation during the Great Recession or the pandemic recession and tracks their labor force status in the following year, using the Current Population Survey. Workers are classified as exiters if they leave the labor force shortly after their job loss and non-exiters if they do not. The pool of exiters is disproportionately female, less educated, and older. During the pandemic recession, there were even more older workers in the exiters pool, although they were less likely to report being retired compared with in the Great Recession. In ...
Review , Volume 105 , Issue 1 , Pages 9-20

Working Paper
A seniority arrangement for sovereign debt
Eyigungor, Burcu; Chatterjee, Satyajit (2015-01-31)
A sovereign's inability to commit to a course of action regarding future borrowing and default behavior makes long-term debt costly (the problem of debt dilution). One mechanism to mitigate the debt dilution problem is the inclusion of a seniority clause in sovereign debt contracts. In the event of default, creditors are to be paid off in the order in which they lent (the ?absolute priority" or ?first-in-time" rule). In this paper, we propose a modification of the absolute priority rule that is more suited to the sovereign debt context and analyze its positive and normative implications ...
Working Papers , Paper 15-7

Working Paper
On the sustainability of exchange rate target zones with central parity realignments
Martinez-Garcia, Enrique (2015-06-01)
I show that parity realignments alone do not suffice to ensure the long-run sustainability of an exchange rate target zone with imperfect credibility due to the gambler?s ruin problem. However, low credibility and frequent realignments can destabilize the exchange rate.
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 243

Working Paper
Improving Sovereign Debt Restructurings
Dvorkin, Maximiliano; Sapriza, Horacio; Sanchez, Juan M.; Yurdagul, Emircan (2021-10-01)
The wave of sovereign defaults in the early 1980s and the string of debt crises in subsequent decades have fostered proposals involving policy interventions in sovereign debt restructurings, and the recent global pandemic crisis has further reignited this discussion. A key question about these policy proposals for debt restructurings that has proved hard to handle is how they influence the behavior of creditors and debtors. We address this challenge by evaluating policy proposals in a quantitative sovereign default model that incorporates two essential features: maturity choice and debt ...
Working Papers , Paper 2019-36

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