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Report
How did China’s WTO entry benefit U.S. prices?
Feenstra, Robert C.; Romalis, John; Dai, Mi; Amiti, Mary (2017-06-01)
We analyze the effects of China?s rapid export expansion following World Trade Organization (WTO) entry on U.S. prices, exploiting cross-industry variation in trade liberalization. Lower input tariffs boosted Chinese firms? productivity, lowered costs, and, in conjunction with reduced U.S. tariff uncertainty, expanded export participation. We find that China?s WTO entry significantly reduced variety-adjusted U.S. manufacturing price indexes between 2000 and 2006. For the Chinese components of these indexes, one-third of the beneficial impact comes from Chinese exporters lowering their prices, ...
Staff Reports , Paper 817

Working Paper
Private Information and Optimal Infant Industry Protection
Riezman, Raymond; Ravikumar, B.; Zhang, Yuzhe (2022-05-20)
We study infant industry protection using a dynamic model in which the industry's cost is initially higher than that of foreign competitors. The industry can stochastically lower its cost via learning by doing. Whether the industry has transitioned to low cost is private information. We use a mechanism-design approach to induce the industry to reveal its true cost. We show that (i) the optimal protection, measured by infant industry output, declines over time and is less than that under public information, (ii) the optimal protection policy is time consistent under public information but not ...
Working Papers , Paper 2022-013

Working Paper
On Trade Policy Preference and Offshoring Ties
Bandyopadhyay, Subhayu; Basu, Arnab K.; Chau, Nancy H.; Mitra, Devashish (2022-12)
This paper unpacks the role of the domestic content of imports as a novel source of policy interdependence along the global supply chain. We show how a rise in local contents embodied in imports can skew national trade policy preferences, and pull upstream and downstream countries in asymmetric ways with respect to (i) the nature of unilaterally optimal trade policy prescriptions, and (ii) the attractiveness of leveraging market access-based dispute settlement procedures. We discuss the pros and cons of deep trade integration as a remedy, involving well-enforced labor standards both upstream ...
Working Papers , Paper 2022-039

Working Paper
Tariff passthrough at the border and at the store: evidence from US trade policy
Cavallo, Alberto; Gopinath, Gita; Neiman, Brent; Tang, Jenny (2019-11-01)
We use micro data collected at the border and at retailers to characterize the effects brought by recent changes in US trade policy ? particularly the tariffs placed on imports from China ? on importers, consumers, and exporters. We start by documenting that the tariffs were almost fully passed through to the total prices paid by importers, suggesting that the tariffs? incidence has fallen largely on the United States. Since we estimate the response of prices to exchange rates to be far more muted, the recent depreciation of the Chinese renminbi is unlikely to alter this conclusion. Next, ...
Working Papers , Paper 19-12

Working Paper
Artificial Intelligence Methods for Evaluating Global Trade Flows
Monken, Anderson; Gopinath, Munisamy; Batarseh, Feras A. (2020-08-20)
International trade policies remain in the spotlight given the recent rethink on the benefits of globalization by major economies. Since trade critically affects employment, production, prices and wages, understanding and predicting future patterns of trade is a high-priority for decision making within and across countries. While traditional economic models aim to be reliable predictors, we consider the possibility that Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques allow for better predictions and associations to inform policy decisions. Moreover, we outline contextual AI methods to decipher trade ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1296

Working Paper
On Terms of Trade, Offshoring Ties, and the Enforcement of Trade Agreements
Bandyopadhyay, Subhayu; Basu, Arnab K.; Chau, Nancy H.; Mitra, Devashish (2023-04)
This paper unpacks the role of offshoring in the enforcement of trade agreements. In a two-country model of task offshoring, we show that by depressing demand and thus demand for embodied labor, own-tariff effects on factor content weighted terms of trade are: (i) negative in upstream countries, backfiring on upstream workers, and (ii) positive in downstream countries which render imported labor tasks even cheaper. This progression in own-tariff effects on terms of trade along the supply chain presents a novel challenge to the effectiveness of dispute settlement rules designed to nullify ...
Working Papers , Paper 2022-039

Working Paper
Offshoring in Developing Countries: Labor Market Outcomes, Welfare, and Policy
Basu, Arnab K.; Chau, Nancy H.; Bandyopadhyay, Subhayu; Mitra, Devashish (2016-05-31)
Does a reduction in offshoring cost benefit workers in the world's factories in developing countries? Using a parsimonious two-country model of offshoring we find very nuanced results. These include cases where wages monotonically improve, worsen, as well as where wages exhibit an inverted U-shaped relationship with the offshoring cost. We identify qualitative conditions under which these relationships hold. Since global welfare always rises with an improvement in offshoring technology, we find that there is a role for a wage tax or a minimum wage in the developing country. We derive the ...
Working Papers , Paper 2016-11

Journal Article
The Economic Effects of the 2018 U.S. Trade Policy: A State-Level Analysis
Peake, Makenzie; Santacreu, Ana Maria (2020-10-22)
We evaluate, empirically, the effect of changes in trade policy during the 2018-19 trade war on U.S. economic activity. We begin by documenting that sectors and states across the United States are heterogeneous in their exposure to international trade. To do that, we construct a measure of exposure that combines the share of a sector’s gross output that is accounted for by trade with the pattern of comparative advantage of each state in that sector. We then exploit cross-state heterogeneity in exposure to international trade and correlate it with measures of economic activity across U.S. ...
Review , Volume 102 , Issue 4 , Pages 385-412

Journal Article
Price Equalization Does Not Imply Free Trade
Riezman, Raymond; Ravikumar, B.; Mutreja, Piyusha; Sposi, Michael (2015)
In this article, the authors demonstrate the possibility of price equalization in a two-country world with barriers to international trade. For price equalization to occur when the countries are asymmetric, the country with higher productivity must also be the one with the lower trade barrier. A corollary of the authors? result is that small departures from purchasing power parity do not necessarily imply that world trade is mostly integrated.
Review , Volume 97 , Issue 4 , Pages 323-39

Report
What do drug monopolies cost consumers in developing countries?
Hellerstein, Rebecca (2011-12-01)
This paper quantifies the effects of drug monopolies and low per-capita income on pharmaceutical prices in developing economies using the example of the antiretroviral drugs (ARVs) used to treat HIV.
Staff Reports , Paper 530

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