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Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
Staff Report
Macroeconomic Volatility and External Imbalances
Alessandra Fogli
Fabrizio Perri
Abstract

Does macroeconomic volatility/uncertainty affect accumulation of net foreign assets? In OECD economies over the period 1970-2012, changes in country specific aggregate volatility are, after controlling for a wide array of factors, significantly positively associated with net foreign asset position. An increase in volatility (measured as the standard deviation of GDP growth) of 0.5% over period of 10 years is associated with an increase in the net foreign assets of around 8% of GDP. A standard open economy model with time varying aggregate uncertainty can quantitatively account for this relationship. The key mechanism is precautionary motive: more uncertainty induces residents to save more, and higher savings are in part channeled into foreign assets. We conclude that both data and theory suggest uncertainty/volatility is an important determinant of the medium/long run evolution of external imbalances in developed countries.


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Alessandra Fogli & Fabrizio Perri, Macroeconomic Volatility and External Imbalances, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Staff Report 512, 11 May 2015.
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Keywords: Business cycles; Current account; Global imbalances; Precautionary saving; Uncertainty
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