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Working Paper
Deconstructing Delays in Sovereign Debt Restructuring
Benjamin, David; Wright, Mark L. J. (2018-07-16)
Negotiations to restructure sovereign debt are time consuming, taking almost a decade on average to resolve. In this paper, we analyze a class of widely used complete information models of delays in sovereign debt restructuring and show that, despite superficial similarities, there are major differences across models in the driving force for equilibrium delay, the circumstances in which delay occurs, and the efficiency of the debt restructuring process. We focus on three key assumptions. First, if delay has a permanent effect on economic activity in the defaulting country, equilibrium delay ...
Working Papers , Paper 753

Working Paper
Policy Rules and Large Crises in Emerging Markets
Espino, Emilio; Sanchez, Juan M.; Martin, Fernando M.; Kozlowski, Julian (2023-02-21)
Emerging countries have increasingly adopted rules to discipline government policy. The COVID-19 shock lead to widespread suspension and modification of these rules. We study rules and flexibility in a sovereign default model with domestic fiscal and monetary policies and long-term external debt. We find welfare gains from adopting monetary targets and debt limits during normal times. Though government policy cannot itself counteract fundamental shocks hitting the economy, the adoption of rules has a significant impact on policy, macroeconomic outcomes and welfare during large, unexpected ...
Working Papers , Paper 2022-018

Working Paper
Trade Uncertainty and U.S. Bank Lending
Correa, Ricardo; di Giovanni, Julian; Goldberg, Linda S.; Minoiu, Camelia (2023-11-20)
This paper uses U.S. loan-level credit register data and the 2018–2019 Trade War to test for the effects of international trade uncertainty on domestic credit supply. We exploit cross-sectional heterogeneity in banks’ ex-ante exposure to trade uncertainty and find that an increase in trade uncertainty is associated with a contraction in bank lending to all firms irrespective of the uncertainty that the firms face. This baseline result holds for lending at the intensive and extensive margins. We document two channels underlying the estimated credit supply effect: a wait-and-see channel by ...
International Finance Discussion Papers , Paper 1383

Working Paper
Overborrowing, Underborrowing, and Macroprudential Policy
Arce, Fernando; Bengui, Julien; Bianchi, Javier (2023-05)
In this paper, we revisit the scope for macroprudential policy in production economies with pecuniary externalities and collateral constraints. We study competitive equilibria and constrained-efficient equilibria and examine the extent to which the gap between the two depends on the production structure and the policy instruments available to the planner. We argue that macroprudential policy is desirable regardless of whether the competitive equilibrium features more or less borrowing than the constrained-efficient equilibrium. In our quantitative analysis, macroprudential taxes on borrowing ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP 2023-20

Working Paper
Optimal Bailouts in Banking and Sovereign Crises
Hur, Sewon; Sosa-Padilla, César; Yom, Zeynep (2021-01-29)
We study optimal bailout policies in the presence of banking and sovereign crises. First, we use European data to document that asset guarantees are the most prevalent way in which sovereigns intervene during banking crises. Then, we build a model of sovereign borrowing with limited commitment, where domestic banks hold government debt and also provide credit to the private sector. Shocks to bank capital can trigger banking crises, with government sometimes finding it optimal to extend guarantees over bank assets. This leads to a trade-off: Larger bailouts relax domestic financial frictions ...
Globalization Institute Working Papers , Paper 406

Journal Article
The economics of small open economies
Guerron-Quintana, Pablo (2013-10)
In recent years, the threat of sovereign debt crises has led investors to demand higher yields on bonds issued by heavily indebted developed countries such as Greece, Ireland, Spain, and Portugal. Pablo Guerron-Quintana explains why small open economies in both the developed and developing worlds share certain funding constraints and considers what lessons developed economies may draw from the experiences of their developing counterparts.
Business Review , Issue Q4 , Pages 9-18

Working Paper
Corporate Yields and Sovereign Yields
Bevilaqua, Julia; Tallman, Eric; Hale, Galina (2019-09-24)
We document that positive association between corporate and sovereign cost of funds borrowed on global capital markets weakens during periods of unusually high sovereign yields, when corporate borrowers are able to issue debt that is priced at lower rates than sovereign debt. This state-dependent sensitivity of corporate yields to sovereign yields has not been previously documented in the literature. We demonstrate that this stylized fact is observed across countries and industries as well as for a given borrower over time and is not explained by a different composition of borrowers issuing ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2019-23

Working Paper
Shock Transmission through Cross-Border Bank Lending: Credit and Real Effect
Minoiu, Camelia; Kapan, Tumer; Hale, Galina (2016-02-04)
We study the transmission of financial sector shocks across borders through international bank connections. For this purpose, we use data on long-term interbank loans among more than 6,000 banks during 1997-2012 to construct a yearly global network of interbank exposures. We estimate the effect of direct (first-degree) and indirect (second-degree) exposures to countries experiencing systemic banking crises on bank profitability and loan supply. We find that direct exposures to crisis countries squeeze banks? profit margins, thereby reducing their returns. Indirect exposures to crisis ...
Working Paper Series , Paper 2016-1

Working Paper
Domestic Policies and Sovereign Default
Kozlowski, Julian; Espino, Emilio; Martin, Fernando M.; Sanchez, Juan M. (2023-09-06)
A model with two essential elements, sovereign default and distortionary fiscal and monetary policies, explains the interaction between sovereign debt, default risk and inflation in emerging countries. We derive conditions under which monetary policy is actively used to support fiscal policy and characterize the intertemporal tradeoffs that determine the choice of debt. We show that in response to adverse shocks to the terms of trade or productivity, governments reduce debt and deficits, and increase inflation and currency depreciation rates, matching the patterns observed in the data for ...
Working Papers , Paper 2020-017

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