Global Trends in U.S. Inflation Dynamics

RePEc Short ID: pmi740
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-6260-2133

Akinci, Ozge; Almuzara, Martín; Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia; Nallamotu, Ramya; Sbordone, Argia M.; Simitian, Greg; Zeng, William

Discussion Paper

Global Trends in U.S. Inflation Dynamics

Abstract: A key feature of the post-pandemic inflation surge was the strong correlation among inflation rates across sectors in the United States. This phenomenon, however, was not confined to the U.S. economy, as similar inflationary pressures have emerged in other advanced economies. As generalized as the inflation surge was, so was its decline from the mid-2022 peak. This post explores the common features of inflation patterns in the U.S. and abroad using an extension of the Multivariate Core Trend (MCT) Inflation model, our underlying inflation tracker for the U.S. The Global MCT model purges transitory noise from international sectoral inflation data and quantifies the covariation of their persistent components—in the form of global inflation trends—along both country and sectoral dimensions. We find that global trends play a dominant role in determining the slow-moving and persistent dynamics of headline consumer price index (CPI) inflation in the U.S. and abroad, both over the pre-pandemic and post pandemic samples.

Keywords: global inflation; persistence; Multivariate Core Trend (MCT); supply chains; demand shocks;

JEL Classification: E31; E37; E52; F34;