Working Paper

Forecasting inflation and growth: do private forecasts match those of policymakers?

Abstract: FOMC projections are important because they provide information for evaluating current monetary policy intentions and because they indicate what FOMC members think will be the likely consequence of their policies. Results here show that the Blue Chip consensus forecasts are a good proxy for the FOMC views. For example, they match the policymakers' views as closely as do the Board staff forecasts presented at FOMC meetings. Using alternative forms of the Taylor Rule, we show that the Blue Chip consensus and the Fed Policymakers' forecasts have almost identical implications for the monetary policy process.

Keywords: Monetary policy; Forecasting; Federal Open Market Committee;

Status: Published in Business Economics, January 2001, 36(1), pp. 13-20

Bibliographic Information

Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Part of Series: Working Papers

Publication Date: 2000

Number: 2000-026