Working Paper Revision

The Interest Rate Effects of Government Debt and Deficits: Does Domestic Borrowing Have a Different Impact Than Foreign Borrowing?


Abstract: We investigate the relationship between government debt and interest rates. We ask whether the effect of government debt on interest rates depends on whether that debt is financed at home or abroad. We extend the work of previous studies that have estimated the effect of expected government debt or deficits on interest rates, and we add an international dimension by incorporating forecasts of the current account balance or net foreign asset position. We find that an increase in government debt financed from domestic savings has less of an effect on interest rates than an increase in government debt financed by foreign borrowing, and government debt has less of an effect on interest rates in a country that is a net international creditor than one that is a net international debtor.

JEL Classification: E6; F3; F4; H6;

https://doi.org/10.24149/wp2614r1

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Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Part of Series: Working Papers

Publication Date: 2026-07-10

Number: 2614

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