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Recent Inflation Surges Have Modestly Affected Long-Term Expectations
Improvements in Federal Reserve credibility over the last 40 years have ensured that inflation expectations, particularly long-term inflation expectations, have so far remained well-anchored despite surging current inflation.
Working Paper
Optimal monetary policy under financial sector risk
We consider whether or not a central bank should respond directly to financial market conditions when setting monetary policy. Specifically, should a central bank put weight on interbank lending spreads in its Taylor rule policy function? ; Using a model with risk and balance sheet effects in both the real and financial sectors (Davis, "The Adverse Feedback Loop and the Effects of Risk in the both the Real and Financial Sectors" Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper No. 66, November 2010) we find that when the conventional parameters in ...
Working Paper
Sudden Stops and Optimal Foreign Exchange Intervention
This paper shows how foreign exchange intervention can be used to avoid a sudden stop in capital flows in a small open emerging market economy. The model is based around the concept of an under-borrowing equilibrium defined by Schmitt-Grohe and Uribe (2020). With a low elasticity of substitution between traded and non-traded goods, real exchange rate depreciation may generate a precipitous drop in aggregate demand and a tightening of borrowing constraints, leading to an equilibrium with an inefficiently low level of borrowing. The central bank can preempt this deleveraging cycle through ...
Working Paper
Financial integration and international business cycle co-movement: the role of balance sheets
This paper investigates the effect of international financial integration on international business cycle co-movement. We first show with a reduced form empirical approach how capital market integration (equity) has a negative effect on business cycle co-movement while credit market integration (debt) has a positive effect. We then construct a model that can replicate these empirical results.> ; In the model, capital market integration is modeled as crossborder equity ownership and involves wealth effects. Credit market integration is modeled as cross-border borrowing and lending between ...
Journal Article
Inflation expectations have become more anchored over time
The Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries imposed an oil embargo on the United States in October 1973 in response to U.S. support of Israel during the Yom Kippur War. The embargo was lifted in March 1974, and although it lasted less than six months, the effects on inflation and inflation expectations in the United States would persist for a decade.
Working Paper
The adverse feedback loop and the effects of risk in both the real and financial sectors
Recessions that are accompanied by financial crises tend to be more severe and are followed by slower recoveries than ordinary recessions. This paper introduces a new Keynesian model with financial frictions on both the demand and supply side of the credit markets that can explain this empirical finding. Following a shock that leads to a decline in economic activity, an adverse feedback loop arises where falling profits and asset values lead to increased defaults in the real sector, and these increased defaults lead to increased loan losses in the banking sector. Following this increase in ...
Report
Financial Frictions Conference: Reviews Paths to Monetary Policy Objectives
The Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute hosted ?Financial Frictions and Monetary Policy in an Open Economy,? March 16?17, in Dallas. The conference brought together theoretical and empirical researchers to examine how financial frictions?often using models in which company balance sheets appear prominently?affect monetary policy in an open economy.
Journal Article
Reserve Adequacy Explains Emerging-Market Sensitivity to U.S. Monetary Policy
Emerging economies that borrow in U.S. dollars are sensitive to U.S. monetary policy due to changing exchange rates. However, the marginal effect of this sensitivity is determined by the relative amount of U.S. dollars held in reserve.
Report
The Trilemma in Practice: Monetary Policy Autonomy in an Economy with a Floating Exchange Rate
For many emerging-market economies, swings in the global financial cycle make the trilemma more of a dilemma. Without restrictions on international capital flows, monetary independence is not possible, even for a country with a floating exchange rate.
Working Paper
Global Drivers of Gross and Net Capital Flows
While prior to the global financial crisis, the empirical international capital flow literature has focused on net capital flows (the current account), since the crisis there has been an increased focus on gross flows. In this paper we jointly analyze global drivers of gross flows (outflows plus inflows) and net flows (outflows minus inflows) by estimating a latent factor model. We find evidence of two global factors, which we call the GFC (global financial cycle) factor and a commodity price factor as they closely track respectively the Miranda-Agrippino and Rey asset price factor and an ...