Journal Article

New results on the rationality of survey measures of exchange-rate expectations


Abstract: In light of research questioning the usefulness of economists' models of exchange-rate determination, this paper investigates the rationality of survey measures of expectations for Deutschmark/dollar exchange rates for 1989-97. Using Liu and Maddala's (1992) \"restricted cointegration\" test, the author cannot reject the assumption that survey measures are unbiased exchange-rate forecasts. This finding is related to market participants' anticipation of the impact of economic policies.

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Provider: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Part of Series: Economic Review

Publication Date: 2000

Issue: Q I

Pages: 14-21