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**577**The Risk of Becoming Risk Averse: A Model of Asset Pricing and Trade Volumes*by Fernando Alvarez & Andrew Atkeson***576**The Role of Uncertainty and Risk in Climate Change Economics*by V. V. Chari***575**The Monetary and Fiscal History of Brazil, 1960-2016*by Joao Luiz Ayres & Marcio Garcia & Diogo Guillen & Patrick J. Kehoe***574**Real Interest Rates, Inflation, and Default*by Sewon Hur & Illenin O. Kondo & Fabrizio Perri***573**Transitional Dynamics in Aggregate Models of Innovative Investment*by Andrew Atkeson & Ariel Burstein & Manolis Chatzikonstantinou***572**Germs, Social Networks, and Growth*by Alessandra Fogli & Laura Veldkamp***571**Optimal Capital Taxation Revisited*by V. V. Chari & Juan Pablo Nicolini & Pedro Teles***570**Asset Pricing with Endogenously Uninsurable Tail Risk*by Hengjie Ai & Anmol Bhandari***569**College Tuition and Income Inequality*by Zhifeng Cai & Jonathan Heathcote***568**What Do Survey Data Tell Us about U.S. Businesses?*by Anmol Bhandari & Serdar Birinci & Ellen R. McGrattan & Kurt See***567**Government Guarantees and the Valuation of American Banks*by Andrew Atkeson & Adrien d'Avernas & Andrea L. Eisfeldt & Pierre-Olivier Weill***566**Evolution of Modern Business Cycle Models: Accounting for the Great Recession*by Patrick J. Kehoe & Virgiliu Midrigan & Elena Pastorino***565**Self-Fulfilling Debt Dilution: Maturity and Multiplicity in Debt Models*by Mark Aguiar & Manuel Amador***564**Reputation and Sovereign Default*by Manuel Amador & Christopher Phelan***563**Bad Investments and Missed Opportunities? Postwar Capital Flows to Asia and Latin America*by Lee E. Ohanian & Paulina Restrepo-Echavarria & Mark L. J. Wright***562**Money in the Production Function*by Edward C. Prescott & Ryan Wessel*

**561**Is Occupational Licensing a Barrier to Interstate Migration?*by Janna Johnson & Morris M. Kleiner***560**Sweat Equity in U.S. Private Business*by Ellen R. McGrattan & Anmol Bhandari***559**Sovereign Risk Contagion*by Cristina Arellano & Yan Bai & Sandra Lizarazo***558**Market Structure and Monetary Non-neutrality*by Simon Mongey***557**Financial Crises and Lending of Last Resort in Open Economies*by Luigi Bocola & Guido Lorenzoni***556**Analyzing the Influence of Occupational Licensing Duration and Grandfathering on Labor Market Outcomes*by Morris M. Kleiner & Suyoun Han***555**Default Risk, Sectoral Reallocation and Persistent Recessions*by Cristina Arellano & Yan Bai & Gabriel Mihalache***554**Capital Requirements and Bailouts*by Fabrizio Perri & Georgios Stefanidis***553**Aggregate Recruiting Intensity*by Alessandro Gavazza & Simon Mongey & Giovanni L. Violante***552**Financialization in Commodity Markets*by V. V. Chari & Lawrence J. Christiano***551**Optimal Progressivity with Age-Dependent Taxation*by Jonathan Heathcote & Kjetil Storesletten & Giovanni L. Violante***550**Productivity, Taxes, and Hours Worked in Spain: 1970-2015*by Juan Carlos Conesa & Timothy J. Kehoe***549**Exporters and Shocks*by Doireann Fitzgerald & Stephanie Haller***548**Macroeconomic Effects of Medicare*by Juan Carlos Conesa & Daniela Costa & Parisa Kamali & Timothy J. Kehoe & Vegard Nygard & Gajen Raveendranathan & Akshar Saxena***547**Sovereign risk and firm heterogeneity*by Cristina Arellano & Yan Bai & Luigi Bocola***546**Worker Betas: Five Facts about Systematic Earnings Risk*by Fatih Guvenen & Sam Schulhofer-Wohl & Jae Song & Motohiro Yogo***545**Intangible Capital and Measured Productivity*by Ellen R. McGrattan***544**Firm Entry and Exit and Aggregate Growth*by Jose Asturias & Sewon Hur & Timothy J. Kehoe & Kim J. Ruhl***543**Fiscal Unions Redux*by Patrick J. Kehoe & Elena Pastorino***542**The Impact of Brexit on Foreign Investment and Production*by Ellen R. McGrattan & Andrea L. Waddle***541**Liquidity Traps and Monetary Policy: Managing a Credit Crunch: Online Appendix*by Francisco J. Buera & Juan Pablo Nicolini***540**Liquidity Traps and Monetary Policy: Managing a Credit Crunch*by Francisco J. Buera & Juan Pablo Nicolini***539**Appendix for How Exporters Grow*by Doireann Fitzgerald & Stephanie Haller & Yaniv Yedid-Levi***538**Appendix for Financial Frictions and Fluctuations in Volatility*by Cristina Arellano & Yan Bai & Patrick J. Kehoe*

**537**Quantitative Trade Models: Developments and Challenges*by Timothy J. Kehoe & Pau S. Pujolas & Jack Rossbach***536**Debt Constraints and Employment*by Patrick J. Kehoe & Virgiliu Midrigan & Elena Pastorino***535**Financial Safety Nets*by Julien Bengui & Javier Bianchi & Louphou Coulibaly***534**An Aggregate Model for Policy Analysis with Demographic Change*by Ellen R. McGrattan & Edward C. Prescott***533**The Opportunity Costs of Entrepreneurs in International Trade*by Timothy J. Kehoe & Pau S. Pujolas & Kim J. Ruhl***532**On the Distribution of the Welfare Losses of Large Recessions*by Dirk Krueger & Kurt Mitman & Fabrizio Perri***531**Accounting for Business Cycles*by Pedro Brinca & V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan***530**Fiat Value in the Theory of Value*by Edward C. Prescott & Ryan Wessel***529**Macroeconomics and Household Heterogeneity*by Fabrizio Perri & Dirk Krueger & Kurt Mitman***528**Reverse Speculative Attacks*by Manuel Amador & Javier Bianchi & Luigi Bocola & Fabrizio Perri***527**RBC Methodology and the Development of Aggregate Economic Theory*by Edward C. Prescott***526**Financial Frictions, Asset Prices, and the Great Recession*by Jose-Victor Rios-Rull & Zhen Huo***525**Fiscal Austerity during Debt Crises*by Cristina Arellano & Yan Bai***524**How Exporters Grow*by Doireann Fitzgerald & Stephanie Haller & Yaniv Yedid-Levi***523**On the Desirability of Capital Controls*by Jonathan Heathcote & Fabrizio Perri*

**522**Equilibrium Price Dispersion and the Border Effect*by Luminita Stevens & Ryan Chahrour***521**The Interaction and Sequencing of Policy Reforms*by Timothy J. Kehoe & Jose Asturias & Sewon Hur & Kim J. Ruhl***520**Coarse Pricing Policies*by Luminita Stevens***519**Cartels Destroy Productivity: Evidence from the New Deal Sugar Manufacturing Cartel, 1934-74*by Benjamin Bridgman & Shi Qi & James A. Schmitz***518**Fiscal Policy in Debt Constrained Economies*by Manuel Amador & Mark Aguiar***517**Appendix: Resurrecting the Role of the Product Market Wedge in Recessions*by Mark Bils & Peter J. Klenow***516**Resurrecting the Role of the Product Market Wedge in Recessions*by Mark Bils & Peter J. Klenow & Benjamin A. Malin***515**External and Public Debt Crises*by Cristina Arellano & Andrew Atkeson & Mark L. J. Wright***514**The Cyclicality of the Opportunity Cost of Employment*by Loukas Karabarbounis & Gabriel Chodorow-Reich***513**Informational Rigidities and the Stickiness of Temporary Sales*by Benjamin A. Malin & Eric Anderson & Emi Nakamura & Duncan Simester & Jon Steinsson***512**Macroeconomic Volatility and External Imbalances*by Alessandra Fogli & Fabrizio Perri***511**Coordination and Crisis in Monetary Unions*by Mark Aguiar & Manuel Amador & Emmanuel Farhi & Gita Gopinath***510**A Demand System Approach to Asset Pricing*by Motohiro Yogo & Ralph S.J. Koijen***509**An Assignment Model of Knowledge Diffusion and Income Inequality*by Erzo G. J. Luttmer***508**Wealth and Volatility*by Jonathan Heathcote & Fabrizio Perri***507**Optimal Income Taxation: Mirrlees Meets Ramsey*by Jonathan Heathcote & Hitoshi Tsujiyama***506**Migration, Congestion Externalities, and the Evaluation of Spatial Investments*by Sam Schulhofer-Wohl & Taryn Dinkelman*

**505**Shadow Insurance*by Motohiro Yogo & Ralph S.J. Koijen***504**Analyzing the Labor Market Outcomes of Occupational Licensing*by Morris M. Kleiner & Maury Gittleman & Mark Klee***503**Banks, Liquidity Management, and Monetary Policy*by Javier Bianchi & Saki Bigio***502**Term Structures of Inflation Expectations and Real Interest Rates: The Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy*by S. Boragan Aruoba***501**Pay with Promises or Pay as You Go? Lessons from the Death Spiral of Detroit*by Thomas J. Holmes & Lee E. Ohanian***500**The Cost of Financial Frictions for Life Insurers*by Ralph S.J. Koijen & Motohiro Yogo***499**Health and Mortality Delta: Assessing the Welfare Cost of Household Insurance Choice*by Motohiro Yogo & Ralph S.J. Koijen & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh***498**Intergenerational Redistribution in the Great Recession*by Andrew Glover & Jonathan Heathcote & Dirk Krueger & Jose-Victor Rios-Rull***497**Is It Too Late to Bail Out the Troubled Countries in the Eurozone?*by Juan Carlos Conesa & Timothy J. Kehoe***496**Optimal Tax Progressivity: An Analytical Framework*by Jonathan Heathcote & Kjetil Storesletten & Giovanni L. Violante***495**Renegotiation Policies in Sovereign Defaults*by Cristina Arellano & Yan Bai***494**A Reassessment of Real Business Cycle Theory*by Ellen R. McGrattan & Edward C. Prescott*

**493**A 14-Variable Mixed-Frequency VAR Model*by Kenneth Beauchemin***492**Using the new products margin to predict the industry-level impact of trade reform*by Timothy J. Kehoe & Jack Rossbach & Kim J. Ruhl***491**Linkages across sovereign debt markets*by Cristina Arellano & Yan Bai***490**Paradox of thrift recessions*by Zhen Huo & Jose-Victor Rios-Rull***489**Global imbalances and structural change in the United States*by Timothy J. Kehoe & Kim J. Ruhl & Joe Steinberg***488**Patent data appendix for quid pro quo: Technology capital transfers for market access in China*by Thomas J. Holmes & Ellen R. McGrattan & Edward C. Prescott***487**Technical appendix for quid pro quo: Technology capital transfers for market access in China*by Thomas J. Holmes & Ellen R. McGrattan & Edward C. Prescott***486**Quid pro quo: Technology capital transfers for market access in China*by Thomas J. Holmes & Ellen R. McGrattan & Edward C. Prescott***485**Inferring labor income risk and partial insurance from economic choices*by Fatih Guvenen & Anthony Smith***484**Measuring the financial soundness of U.S. firms, 1926-2012*by Andrew Atkeson & Andrea L. Eisfeldt & Pierre-Olivier Weill***483**Heterogeneity and risk sharking in village economies*by Pierre-Andre Chiappori & Krislert Samphantharak & Sam Schulhofer-Wohl & Robert M. Townsend***482**Job matching within and across firms*by Elena Pastorino***481**Bailouts, time inconsistency, and optimal regulation*by V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe***480**Assessing international efficiency*by Jonathan Heathcote & Fabrizio Perri***479**The market for OTC derivatives*by Andrew Atkeson & Andrea L. Eisfeldt & Pierre-Olivier Weill*

**478**Engineering a paradox of thrift recession*by Zhen Huo & Jose-Victor Rios-Rull***477**What ever happened to the Puerto Rican sugar manufacturing industry?*by Benjamin Bridgman & Michael Maio & James A. Schmitz***476**The nature of countercyclical income risk*by Fatih Guvenen & Serdar Ozkan & Jae Song***475**Learning-by-employing: the value of commitment under uncertainty*by Braz Camargo & Elena Pastorino***474**Do newspapers matter? Short-run and long-run evidence from the closure of The Cincinnati Post*by Miguel Garrido & Sam Schulhofer-Wohl***473**Technical appendix: on financing retirement with an aging population*by Ellen R. McGrattan & Edward C. Prescott***472**On financing retirement with an aging population*by Ellen R. McGrattan & Edward C. Prescott***471**Heterogeneity in expected longevities*by Josep Pijoan-Mas & Jose-Victor Rios-Rull***470**Supplementary appendix: Careers in firms: estimating a model of learning, job assignment, and human capital aquisition*by Elena Pastorino***469**Careers in firms: estimating a model of learning, job assignment, and human capital aquisition*by Elena Pastorino***468**New and larger costs of monopoly and tariffs*by James A. Schmitz***467**Money is an experience good: competition and trust in the private provision of money*by Ramon Marimon & Juan Pablo Nicolini & Pedro Teles***466**Financial frictions and fluctuations in volatility*by Cristina Arellano & Yan Bai & Patrick J. Kehoe***465**Gambling for redemption and self-fulfilling debt crises*by Juan Carlos Conesa & Timothy J. Kehoe***464**Optimal regulation in the presence of reputation concerns*by Andrew Atkeson & Christian Hellwig & Guillermo L. Ordonez***455**Technical appendix: Transition to FDI openness - reconciling theory and evidence*by Ellen R. McGrattan***454**Transition to FDI openness: reconciling theory and evidence*by Ellen R. McGrattan*

**463**International recessions*by Fabrizio Perri & Vincenzo Quadrini***462**Heterogeneity and tests of risk sharing*by Sam Schulhofer-Wohl***461**Modeling the evolution of age and cohort effects in social research*by Sam Schulhofer-Wohl & Yang Yang***460**A model of commodity money with minting and melting*by Angela Redish & Warren E. Weber***459**Aggregate implications of innovation policy*by Andrew Atkeson & Ariel Burstein***458**Interstate migration has fallen less than you think: consequences of hot deck imputation in the Current Population Survey*by Greg Kaplan & Sam Schulhofer-Wohl***457**Aggregate labor supply*by Johanna Wallenius & Edward C. Prescott***456**Structural change in an open economy*by Kei-Mu Yi & Jing Zhang***452**Capital taxation during the U.S. Great Depression - Technical appendix*by Ellen R. McGrattan*

**453**Why have economic reforms in Mexico not generated growth?*by Timothy J. Kehoe & Kim J. Ruhl***451**Capital taxation during the U.S. Great Depression*by Ellen R. McGrattan***450**Inferring labor income risk from economic choices: an indirect inference approach*by Fatih Guvenen & Anthony Smith***449**Moving back home: insurance against labor market risk*by Greg Kaplan***448**Human capital values and returns: bounds implied by earnings and asset returns data*by Mark Huggett & Greg Kaplan***447**Comment on Christian’s “Human Capital Accounting in the United States: 1994–2006”*by Ellen R. McGrattan***446**Fund managers, career concerns, and asset price volatility*by Veronica Guerrieri & Peter Kondor***445**An alternative theory of the plant size distribution with an application to trade*by Thomas J. Holmes & John J. Stevens***444**Innovation, firm dynamics, and international trade*by Andrew Atkeson & Ariel Burstein***443**New Monetarist Economics: models*by Stephen D. Williamson & Randall Wright***442**New Monetarist Economics: methods*by Stephen D. Williamson & Randall Wright***441**Tax buyouts*by Marco Del Negro & Fabrizio Perri & Fabiano Schivardi***440**On the mechanics of firm growth*by Erzo G. J. Luttmer***439**Competition and productivity: a review of evidence*by Thomas J. Holmes & James A. Schmitz*

**438**Taxation of human capital and wage inequality: a cross-country analysis*by Fatih Guvenen & Burhanettin Kuruscu & Serdar Ozkan***437**The economic performance of cartels: evidence from the New Deal U.S. sugar manufacturing cartel, 1934-74*by Benjamin Bridgman & Shi Qi & James A. Schmitz***436**Unequal we stand: an empirical analysis of economic inequality in the United States, 1967-2006*by Jonathan Heathcote & Fabrizio Perri & Giovanni L. Violante***435**International trade and income differences*by Michael E. Waugh***434**A parsimonious macroeconomic model for asset pricing*by Fatih Guvenen***433**Methods versus substance: measuring the effects of technology shocks on hours*by José-Víctor Ríos-Rull & Frank Schorfheide & Cristina Fuentes-Albero & Raul Santaeulalia-Llopis & Maxym Kryshko***432**Consumption and labor supply with partial insurance: an analytical framework*by Jonathan Heathcote & Kjetil Storesletten & Giovanni L. Violante***431**Fragility of reputation and clustering of risk-taking*by Guillermo L. Ordoñez***430**Reputation from nested activities: the inefficient effects of scapegoating*by Guillermo L. Ordonez***429**Larger crises, slower recoveries: the asymmetric effects of financial frictions*by Guillermo L. Ordoñez***428**Superstores or mom and pops? Technolgy adoption and productivity differences in retail trade*by David Lagakos***427**A quantitative analysis of the evolution of the U.S. wage distribution, 1970-2000*by Fatih Guvenen & Burhanettin Kuruscu***426**Joint-search theory: new opportunities and new frictions*by Bulent Guler & Fatih Guvenen & Giovanni L. Violante***425**Transportation and development: insights from the U.S., 1840-1860*by Berthold Herrendorf & James A. Schmitz & Arilton Teixeira***424**Trend and cycle in bond premia*by Monika Piazzesi & Martin Schneider***423**Inflation and the price of real assets*by Monika Piazzesi & Martin Schneider***422**Momentum traders in the housing market: survey evidence and a search model*by Monika Piazzesi & Martin Schneider***421**The current financial crisis: what should we learn from the great depressions of the Twentieth Century?*by Gonzalo Fernández de Córdoba & Timothy J. Kehoe***420**Quantitative macroeconomics with heterogeneous households*by Jonathan Heathcote & Kjetil Storesletten & Giovanni L. Violante***419**Sophisticated monetary policies*by Andrew Atkeson & V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe***407**Technology capital and the U.S. current account (appendices)*by Ellen R. McGrattan & Edward C. Prescott***406**Technology capital and the U.S. current account*by Ellen R. McGrattan & Edward C. Prescott***395**Unmeasured investment and the puzzling U.S. boom in the 1990s (technical appendix)*by Ellen R. McGrattan & Edward C. Prescott***392**Firm dynamics and financial development*by Cristina Arellano & Yan Bai & Jing Zhang***369**Unmeasured investment and the puzzling U.S. boom in the 1990s*by Ellen R. McGrattan & Edward C. Prescott***324**How important is the new goods margin in international trade?*by Timothy J. Kehoe & Kim J. Ruhl*

**418**Using the general equilibrium growth model to study great depressions: a reply to Temin*by Timothy J. Kehoe & Edward C. Prescott***417**Sluggish responses of prices and inflation to monetary shocks in an inventory model of money demand*by Fernando Alvarez & Andrew Atkeson & Chris Edmond***416**Coin sizes and payments in commodity money systems*by Angela Redish & Warren E. Weber***415**Real exchange rate movements and the relative price of non-traded goods*by Caroline M. Betts & Timothy J. Kehoe***414**Sudden stops, sectoral reallocations, and the real exchange rate*by Timothy J. Kehoe & Kim J. Ruhl***412**On the need for a new approach to analyzing monetary policy*by Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe***411**Understanding international prices: customers as capital*by Lukasz A. Drozd & Jaromir B. Nosal***410**Default and the maturity structure in sovereign bonds*by Cristina Arellano & Ananth Ramanarayanan***409**New Keynesian models: not yet useful for policy analysis*by V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan***408**Liquidity in asset markets with search frictions*by Ricardo Lagos & Guillaume Rocheteau***405**Intermediated quantities and returns*by Rajnish Mehra & Facundo Piguillem & Edward C. Prescott***404**Pricing-to-market, trade costs, and international relative prices*by Andrew Atkeson & Ariel Burstein***403**Optimal fiscal and monetary policy: equivalence results*by Isabel Correia & Juan Pablo Nicolini & Pedro Teles***402**Monopoly and the incentive to innovate when adoption involves switchover disruptions*by Thomas J. Holmes & David K. Levine & James A. Schmitz***396**Openness, technology capital, and development*by Ellen R. McGrattan & Edward C. Prescott***378**Trade, growth, and convergence in a dynamic Heckscher-Ohlin model*by Claustre Bajona & Timothy J. Kehoe***371**Time-varying risk, interest rates, and exchange rates in general equilibrium*by Fernando Alvarez & Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe***315**Does neoclassical theory account for the effects of big fiscal shocks? Evidence from World War II*by Ellen R. McGrattan & Lee E. Ohanian***308**Time inconsistency and free-riding in a monetary union*by V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe*

**401**Modeling great depressions: the depression in Finland in the 1990s*by Juan Carlos Conesa & Timothy J. Kehoe & Kim J. Ruhl***400**Lifetime aggregate labor supply with endogenous workweek length*by Edward C. Prescott & Richard Rogerson & Johanna Wallenius***399**The heterogeneous state of modern macroeconomics: a reply to Solow*by V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe***398**The international diversification puzzle is not as bad as you think*by Jonathan Heathcote & Fabrizio Perri***397**Changes in the distribution of family hours worked since 1950*by Ellen R. McGrattan & Richard Rogerson***394**On the optimal choice of a monetary policy instrument*by Andrew Atkeson & V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe***393**Money and bonds: an equivalence theorem*by Narayana R. Kocherlakota***391**Are shocks to the terms of trade shocks to productivity?*by Timothy J. Kehoe & Kim J. Ruhl***390**Time consistent monetary policy with endogenous price rigidity*by Henry E. Siu***389**Does regulation reduce productivity? Evidence from regulation of the U.S. beet-sugar manufacturing industry during the Sugar Acts, 1934-74*by Benjamin Bridgman & Shi Qi & James A. Schmitz***388**If exchange rates are random walks, then almost everything we say about monetary policy is wrong*by Fernando Alvarez & Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe***387**The young, the old, and the restless: demographics and business cycle volatility*by Nir Jaimovich & Henry E. Siu***386**Nature or nurture? learning and female labor force dynamics*by Alessandra Fogli & Laura Veldkamp***385**Dollarization and financial integration*by Cristina Arellano & Jonathan Heathcote***384**Comparing alternative representations and alternative methodologies in business cycle accounting*by V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan***364**Are structural VARs with long-run restrictions useful in developing business cycle theory?*by V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan*

**383**Private monitoring with infinite histories*by Christopher Phelan & Andrzej Skrzypacz***382**Establishment size dynamics in the aggregate economy*by Esteban Rossi-Hansberg & Mark L. J. Wright***381**Urban structure and growth*by Esteban Rossi-Hansberg & Mark L. J. Wright***380**Bankruptcy and collateral in debt constrained markets*by Timothy J. Kehoe & David K. Levine***379**How to advance theory with structural VARs: use the Sims-Cogley-Nason approach*by Patrick J. Kehoe***377**Demographics in dynamic Heckscher-Ohlin models: overlapping generations versus infinitely lived consumers*by Claustre Bajona & Timothy J. Kehoe***376**Modern macroeconomics in practice: how theory is shaping policy*by V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe***375**Search in asset markets*by Ricardo Lagos & Guillaume Rocheteau***374**Inside and outside money*by Ricardo Lagos***373**Asset prices and liquidity in an exchange economy*by Ricardo Lagos***372**Household heterogeneity and real exchange rates*by Narayana R. Kocherlakota & Luigi Pistaferri***370**Real business cycles*by Ellen R. McGrattan***368**Geographic spillover of unionism*by Thomas J. Holmes***367**Temptation and self-control: some evidence and applications*by Kevin X. D. Huang & Zheng Liu & Qi Zhu***362**Appendices: Business cycle accounting*by V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan***358**A model of job and worker flows*by Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & Ricardo Lagos***345**A model of TFP*by Ricardo Lagos***328**Business cycle accounting*by V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan***297**The advantage of transparency in monetary policy instruments*by Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe***296**Modeling the transition to a new economy: lessons from two technological revolutions*by Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe*

**366**Liquidity and insurance for the unemployed*by Robert Shimer & Iván Werning***365**Tax smoothing with redistribution*by Iván Werning***363**Does income inequality lead to consumption equality? evidence and theory*by Dirk Krueger & Fabrizio Perri***361**Culture: an empirical investigation of beliefs, work, and fertility*by Raquel Fernandez & Alessandra Fogli***360**Intellectual property and market size*by Michele Boldrin & David K. Levine***359**Fertility and Social Security*by Michele Boldrin & Mariacristina De Nardi & Larry E. Jones***357**The economics of ideas and intellectual property*by Michele Boldrin & David K. Levine***356**Deflation and the international Great Depression: a productivity puzzle*by Harold L. Cole & Lee E. Ohanian & Ron Leung***355**Real effects of inflation through the redistribution of nominal wealth*by Matthias Doepke & Martin Schneider***354**The macroeconomics of child labor regulation*by Matthias Doepke & Fabrizio Zilibotti***353**Sudden stops and output drops*by V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan***350**Productivity and the post-1990 U.S. economy*by Ellen R. McGrattan & Edward C. Prescott***344**Were U.S. state banknotes priced as securities?*by Warren E. Weber***323**Opportunity and social mobility*by Christopher Phelan***309**Taxes, regulations, and the value of U.S. and U.K. corporations*by Ellen R. McGrattan & Edward C. Prescott***291**Modeling and measuring organization capital*by Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe***286**What determines productivity? lessons from the dramatic recovery of the U.S. and Canadian iron-ore industries following their early 1980s crisis*by James A. Schmitz*

**352**Idiosyncratic shocks and the role of nonconvexities in plant and aggregate investment dynamics*by Aubhik Khan & Julia K. Thomas***351**Latin America in the rearview mirror*by Harold L. Cole & Lee E. Ohanian & Alvaro Riascos & James A. Schmitz***349**Patrick Kehoe's comment on "Determinants of business cycle comovement: a robust analysis" by Marianne Baxter and Michael Kouparitsas*by Patrick J. Kehoe***348**Comment on Mendoza and Tesar's "Why hasn't tax competition triggered a race to the bottom? Some quantitative lessons from the EU"*by Ellen R. McGrattan***347**Rent-seeking and innovation*by Michele Boldrin & David K. Levine***346**A unified framework for monetary theory and policy analysis*by Ricardo Lagos & Randall Wright***343**Modeling inventories over the business cycle*by Aubhik Khan & Julia K. Thomas***342**Inflation, output and welfare*by Ricardo Lagos & Guillaume Rocheteau***341**Money and capital as competing media of exchange*by Ricardo Lagos & Guillaume Rocheteau***340**Taxation, entrepreneurship, and wealth*by Marco Cagetti & Mariacristina De Nardi***339**IER Lawrence Klein Lecture: the case against intellectual monopoly*by Michele Boldrin & David K. Levine***338**Comment on Gali and Rabanal's "Technology shocks and aggregate fluctuations: how well does the RBC model fit postwar U.S. data?"*by Ellen R. McGrattan***337**Privatization's impact on private productivity: the case of Brazilian iron ore*by James A. Schmitz & Arilton Teixeira***336**The intergenerational state: education and pensions*by Michele Boldrin & Ana Montes***335**Business cycles in emerging economies: the role of interest rates*by Pablo Neumeyer & Fabrizio Perri***334**U.S. real exchange rate fluctuations and relative price fluctuations*by Caroline M. Betts & Timothy J. Kehoe***333**A unified theory of the evolution of international income levels*by Stephen L. Parente & Edward C. Prescott***332**Dissecting trade: firms, industries, and export destinations*by Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum & Francis Kramarz***331**Deflation and depression: is there an empirical link?*by Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe***327**Partial adjustment without apology*by Robert G. King & Julia K. Thomas***326**The optimal degree of discretion in monetary policy*by Susan Athey & Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe*

**330**On the desirability of fiscal constraints in a monetary union*by V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe***329**Inventories and the business cycle: an equilibrium analysis of (S,s) policies*by Aubhik Khan & Julia K. Thomas***325**A theory of factor allocation and plant size*by Thomas J. Holmes & Matthew F. Mitchell***322**Entrepreneurship, frictions, and wealth*by Marco Cagetti & Mariacristina De Nardi***321**Why do Americans work so much more than Europeans?*by Edward C. Prescott***320**An evaluation of the performance of applied general equilibrium models of the impact of NAFTA*by Timothy J. Kehoe***319**Expectation traps and monetary policy*by Stefania Albanesi & V. V. Chari & Lawrence J. Christiano***318**What can we learn from the current crisis in Argentina?*by Timothy J. Kehoe***317**Why are married women working so much?*by Larry E. Jones & Rodolfo E. Manuelli & Ellen R. McGrattan***316**Financial crises as herds: overturning the critiques*by V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe***313**Average debt and equity returns: puzzling?*by Ellen R. McGrattan & Edward C. Prescott***312**Non-convexities in quantitative general equilibrium studies of business cycles*by Edward C. Prescott***310**The economics of labor adjustment: mind the gap*by Russell W. Cooper & Jonathan L. Willis***307**Competitive equilibria with limited enforcement*by Patrick J. Kehoe & Fabrizio Perri***305**The time consistency of monetary and fiscal policies*by Fernando Alvarez & Patrick J. Kehoe & Pablo Neumeyer***294**The 1929 stock market: Irving Fisher was right*by Ellen R. McGrattan & Edward C. Prescott***228**Hot money*by V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe*

**314**Wealth inequality and intergenerational links*by Mariacristina De Nardi***311**Overturning Mundell: fiscal policy in a monetary union*by Russell W. Cooper & Hubert Kempf***306**Nonconvex factor adjustments in equilibrium business cycle models: Do nonlinearities matter?*by Aubhik Khan & Julia K. Thomas***304**The home market and the pattern of trade: round three*by Thomas J. Holmes & John J. Stevens***303**Perfectly competitive innovation*by Michele Boldrin & David K. Levine***302**Is lumpy investment relevant for the business cycle?*by Julia K. Thomas***301**Factor saving innovation*by Michele Boldrin & David K. Levine***300**Innovating firms and aggregate innovation*by Jakob Klette & Samuel Kortum***299**Learning from failure*by Andreas Blume & April Franco***298**The role of cities: evidence from the placement of sales offices*by Thomas J. Holmes***277**Can sticky price models generate volatile and persistent real exchange rates?*by V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan*

**295**The great U.K. depression: a puzzle and possible resolution*by Harold L. Cole & Lee E. Ohanian***293**Optimal indirect and capital taxation*by Mikhail Golosov & Narayana R. Kocherlakota & Aleh Tsyvinski***292**A decade lost and found: Mexico and Chile in the 1980s*by Raphael Bergoeing & Patrick J. Kehoe***290**Specialization and the skill premium in the 20th century*by Matthew F. Mitchell***289**Financial collapse and active monetary policy: a lesson from the Great Depression*by Russell W. Cooper & Dean Corbae***288**Building blocks for barriers to riches*by Narayana R. Kocherlakota***287**Finite memory and imperfect monitoring*by Harold L. Cole & Narayana R. Kocherlakota***285**Why did productivity fall so much during the Great Depression?*by Lee E. Ohanian***284**Trade theory and trade facts*by Raphael Bergoeing & Timothy J. Kehoe***283**Public trust and government betrayal*by Christopher Phelan***268**On the irrelevance of the maturity structure of government debt without commitment*by Christopher Phelan*

**282**On the equilibrium concept for overlapping generations organizations*by Edward C. Prescott & Jose-Victor Rios-Rull***281**Technology (and policy) shocks in models of endogenous growth*by Larry E. Jones & Rodolfo E. Manuelli & Ennio Stacchetti***280**Habit persistence, asset returns and the business cycle*by Michele Boldrin & Lawrence J. Christiano & Jonas D. M. Fisher***279**Growth cycles and market crashes*by Michele Boldrin & David K. Levine***278**Money, interest rates, and exchange rates with endogenously segmented markets*by Fernando Alvarez & Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe***276**Endogenous policy choice: the case of pollution and growth*by Larry E. Jones & Rodolfo E. Manuelli***275**Societal benefits of nominal bonds*by Narayana R. Kocherlakota***274**Risky collateral and deposit insurance*by Narayana R. Kocherlakota***273**Rewarding sequential innovators: prizes, patents and buyouts*by Gerard Llobet & Hugo A. Hopenhayn & Matthew F. Mitchell***272**Knowledge diffusion through employee mobility*by April Franco & Darren Filson***271**Growth and business cycles*by Larry E. Jones & Rodolfo E. Manuelli & Henry E. Siu***270**Re-examining the contributions of money and banking shocks to the U.S. Great Depression*by Harold L. Cole & Lee E. Ohanian***269**The scale of production in technological revolutions*by Matthew F. Mitchell***267**Predicting turning points*by Daniel M. Chin & John F. Geweke & Preston J. Miller***266**Some fresh perspectives on price-support policies*by Preston J. Miller***265**International business cycles with endogenous incomplete markets*by Patrick J. Kehoe & Fabrizio Perri***264**Do mergers lead to monopoly in the long run? Results from the dominant firm model*by Gautam Gowrisankaran & Thomas J. Holmes***256**Paths of development for early- and late-bloomers in a dynamic Heckscher-Ohlin model*by Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe*

**263**Threats to industry survival and labor productivity: world iron-ore markets in the 1980's*by Jose E. Galdon Sanchez & James A. Schmitz***262**Risk sharing: private insurance markets or redistributive taxes?*by Dirk Krueger & Fabrizio Perri***261**Bar codes lead to frequent deliveries and superstores*by Thomas J. Holmes***260**Money and interest rates with endogeneously segmented markets*by Fernando Alvarez & Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe***259**A recursive formulation for repeated agency with history dependence*by Ana Fernandes & Christopher Phelan***258**Sequential equilibria in a Ramsey tax model*by Christopher Phelan & Ennio Stacchetti***257**Malthus to Solow*by Gary D. Hansen & Edward C. Prescott***238**Efficient allocations with hidden income and hidden storage*by Harold L. Cole & Narayana R. Kocherlakota*

**255**Complex eigenvalues and trend-reverting fluctuations*by Costas Azariadis & James B. Bullard & Lee E. Ohanian***254**Dynamic games with hidden actions and hidden states*by Harold L. Cole & Narayana R. Kocherlakota***253**Efficient non-contractible investments*by Harold L. Cole & George J. Mailath & Andrew Postlewaite***252**The existence of rational expectations equilibrium: a retrospective*by Beth Allen & James S. Jordan***251**Optimal fiscal and monetary policy*by V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe***250**Explaining cross-country income differences*by Ellen R. McGrattan & James A. Schmitz***249**Using simulation methods for Bayesian econometric models: inference, development, and communication*by John F. Geweke***248**The defining moment: a review essay*by Lee E. Ohanian***247**Comments on Gordon, Leeper, and Zha's trends in velocity and policy expectations*by Ellen R. McGrattan***246**The demand for money and the nonneutrality of money*by Harold L. Cole & Lee E. Ohanian***245**A gain from trade: more research, less obstruction*by Thomas J. Holmes & James A. Schmitz***244**Is there a trend break in U.S. GNP? A macroeconomic perspective*by Lutz Kilian & Lee E. Ohanian***243**Dynamic equilibrium economies: a framework for comparing models and data*by Francis X. Diebold & Lee E. Ohanian & Jeremy Berkowitz***241**Transaction services, inflation, and welfare*by S. Rao Aiyagari & R. Anton Braun & Zvi Eckstein***232**Application of weighted residual methods to dynamic economic models*by Ellen R. McGrattan***223**Can sticky price models generate volatile and persistent real exchange rates?*by V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan***217**Sticky price models of the business cycle: can the contract multiplier solve the persistence problem?*by V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan***211**Self-fulfilling debt crises*by Harold L. Cole & Timothy J. Kehoe*

**242**Needed: a theory of total factor productivity*by Edward C. Prescott***240**Government production of investment goods and aggregate labor productivity*by James A. Schmitz***239**Capital-skill complementarity and inequality: a macroeconomic analysis*by Per Krusell & Lee E. Ohanian & Jose-Victor Rios-Rull & Giovanni L. Violante***237**Mixture of normals probit models*by John F. Geweke & Michael P. Keane***236**Monopoly rights: a barrier to riches*by Stephen L. Parente & Edward C. Prescott***235**Marital risk and capital accumulation*by Luis Cubeddu & Jose-Victor Rios-Rull***234**On the size of U.S. government: political economy in the neoclassical growth model*by Per Krusell & Jose-Victor Rios-Rull***233**An empirical analysis of income dynamics among men in the PSID: 1968-1989*by John F. Geweke & Michael P. Keane***231**Computation of equilibria in heterogeneous agent models*by Jose-Victor Rios-Rull***230**Models of energy use: putty-putty vs. putty-clay*by Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe***229**Why do stock prices drop by less than the value of the dividend? Evidence from a country without taxes*by Murray Frank & Ravi Jagannathan***215**A model of commodity money, with applications to Gresham's law and the debasement puzzle*by Francois R. Velde & Warren E. Weber & Randall Wright***204**The poverty of nations: a quantitative exploration*by V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan***203**The optimum quantity of debt*by S. Rao Aiyagari & Ellen R. McGrattan*

**227**Sticky price and limited participation models of money: a comparison*by Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans***226**Implementation theory with incomplete information*by Beth Allen***225**Cooperative theory with incomplete information*by Beth Allen***224**Can the Mortonson-Pissarides matching model match the business cycle facts?*by Harold L. Cole & Richard Rogerson***222**Individual and aggregate real balances in a random matching model*by Ruilin Zhou***221**Step-by-step migration to efficient agglomerations*by Thomas J. Holmes***220**Pattern bargaining*by Robert Marshall & Antonio Merlo***219**How industries migrate when agglomeration economies are important*by Thomas J. Holmes***218**Money is memory*by Narayana R. Kocherlakota***216**On the political economy of income redistribution and crime*by Ayse Imrohoroglu & Antonio Merlo & Peter Rupert***214**Chaos, sunspots, and automatic stabilizers*by Lawrence J. Christiano & Sharon G. Harrison***213**Class systems and the enforcement of social norms*by Harold L. Cole & George J. Mailath & Andrew Postlewaite***212**The balance of payments and borrowing constraints: an alternative view of the Mexican crisis*by Andrew Atkeson & Jose-Victor Rios-Rull***210**A self-fulfilling model of Mexico's 1994-95 debt crisis*by Harold L. Cole & Timothy J. Kehoe***209**Reputation spillover across relationships: reviving reputation models of debt*by Harold L. Cole & Patrick J. Kehoe***208**The conditional CAPM and the cross-section of expected returns*by Ravi Jagannathan & Zhenyu Wang***207**How prescribed policy can mislead when data are defective: a follow-up to Srinivasan (1994) using general equilibrium*by Jean Mercenier & Erinc Yeldan***206**Econometric evaluation of asset pricing models*by Wayne E. Ferson & Ravi Jagannathan***205**The effects of state policies on the location of industry: evidence from state borders*by Thomas J. Holmes***174**Valuation equilibria with clubs*by Harold L. Cole & Edward C. Prescott*

**202**Social insurance and transition*by Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe***201**Industry evolution and transition: measuring investment in organization*by Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe***200**Tobin's Q and asset returns: implications for business cycle analysis*by Lawrence J. Christiano & Jonas D. M. Fisher***199**Small sample properties of GMM for business cycle analysis*by Lawrence J. Christiano & Wouter Den Haan***198**On the mechanics of forming and estimating dynamic linear economies*by Evan W. Anderson & Lars Peter Hansen & Ellen R. McGrattan & Thomas J. Sargent***197**Social insurance and taxation under sequential majority voting and utilitarian regimes*by S. Rao Aiyagari & Dan Peled***196**Comments on Farmer and Guo's "the econometrics of indeterminacy: an applied study."*by S. Rao Aiyagari***195**Gender differences in education in a dynamic household bargaining model*by Cristina Echevarria & Antonio Merlo***194**Fixed vs. floating exchange rates: a dynamic general equilibrium analysis*by Daniel M. Chin & Preston J. Miller***193**The jointly optimal inflation tax, income tax structure, and transfers*by Preston J. Miller***192**Monte Carlo simulation and numerical integration*by John F. Geweke***191**An equilibrium model of the business cycle with household production and fiscal policy*by Ellen R. McGrattan & Richard Rogerson & Randall Wright***190**Localization of industry and vertical disintegration*by Thomas J. Holmes***189**Measuring the pricing error of the arbitrage pricing theory*by John F. Geweke & Guofu Zhou***188**On sunk costs and trade liberalization in applied general equilibrium*by Jean Mercenier & Nicolas Schmitt***187**Capacity precommitment as a barrier to entry: a Bertrand-Edgeworth approach*by Beth Allen & Raymond Deneckere & Tom Faith & Dan Kovenock*

**186**Estimating substitution elasticities in household production models*by Peter Rupert & Richard Rogerson & Randall Wright***185**On the political economy of education subsidies*by Raquel Fernandez & Richard Rogerson***184**Resistance to technology and trade between areas*by Thomas J. Holmes & James A. Schmitz***183**Nonuniqueness of solutions in applied general equilibrium models with scale economies and imperfect competition*by Jean Mercenier***182**Mechanics of forming and estimating dynamic linear economies*by Lars Peter Hansen & Ellen R. McGrattan & Thomas J. Sargent***181**The solution and estimation of discrete choice dynamic programming models by simulation and interpolation: Monte Carlo evidence*by Michael P. Keane & Kenneth I. Wolpin***180**Default, settlement, and signalling: lending resumption in a reputational model of sovereign debt*by Harold L. Cole & James Dow & William B. English***179**The role of institutions in reputation models of sovereign debt*by Harold L. Cole & Patrick J. Kehoe***178**The computational experiment: an econometric tool*by Finn E. Kydland & Edward C. Prescott***177**Statistical inference in the multinomial multiperiod probit model*by John F. Geweke & Michael P. Keane & David E. Runkle***176**An experimental study of learning and limited information in games*by Kevin A. McCabe & Arijit Mukherji & David E. Runkle***175**Inflation, money, and output under alternative monetary standards*by Arthur J. Rolnick & Warren E. Weber***173**Ex-dividend price behavior of common stocks*by John H. Boyd & Ravi Jagannathan***172**Dynamic bargaining theory*by Melvyn Coles & Randall Wright***171**Algorithms for solving dynamic models with occasionally binding constraints*by Lawrence J. Christiano & Jonas D. M. Fisher***170**Alternative computational approaches to inference in the multinomial probit model*by John F. Geweke & Michael P. Keane & David E. Runkle***169**Two-sided search*by Kenneth Burdett & Randall Wright***168**Seasonality and equilibrium business cycle theories*by R. Anton Braun & Charles L. Evans***167**Assessing specification errors in stochastic discount factor models*by Lars Peter Hansen & Ravi Jagannathan*

**166**Household production and taxation in the stochastic growth model*by Ellen R. McGrattan & Richard Rogerson & Randall Wright***165**The CAPM is alive and well*by Ravi Jagannathan & Zhenyu Wang***164**Solving the stochastic growth model with a finite element method*by Ellen R. McGrattan***163**Why are representative democracies fiscally irresponsible?*by V. V. Chari & Harold L. Cole***162**Industry evolution and transition: the role of information capital*by Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe***161**Interest rates under the U.S. national banking system*by Bruce A. Champ & Neil Wallace & Warren E. Weber***160**Optimal fiscal policy in a business cycle model*by V. V. Chari & Lawrence J. Christiano & Patrick J. Kehoe***159**A contingent claim approach to performance evaluation*by Lawrence R. Glosten & Ravi Jagannathan***158**Optimality of the Friedman rule in economies with distorting taxes*by V. V. Chari & Lawrence J. Christiano & Patrick J. Kehoe***157**On the relation between the expected value and the volatility of the nominal excess return on stocks*by Lawrence R. Glosten & Ravi Jagannathan & David E. Runkle***156**A contribution to the theory of pork barrel spending*by V. V. Chari & Harold L. Cole*

**155**Banking in computable general equilibrium economies: technical appendices I and II*by Fernando Alvarez & Terry J. Fitzgerald***154**Real effects of monetary policy in a world economy*by Preston J. Miller & Richard M. Todd***153**Banking in computable general equilibrium economies*by Javier Diaz-Gimenez & Edward C. Prescott & Terry J. Fitzgerald & Fernando Alvarez***152**In search of scale effects in trade and growth*by David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Timothy J. Kehoe***151**On the existence and uniqueness of nonoptimal equilibria in dynamic stochastic economies*by Jeremy Greenwood & Gregory W. Huffman***150**Liquidity effects and the monetary transmission mechanism*by Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum***149**Liquidity constraints in economies with aggregate fluctuations: a quantitative exploration*by Javier Diaz-Gimenez & Edward C. Prescott***97**Explaining the demand for free bank notes*by Arthur J. Rolnick & Warren E. Weber***96**Estimating linear filters with errors in variables using the Hilbert transform*by Melvin Hinich & Warren E. Weber*

**148**Evaluating the accuracy of sampling-based approaches to the calculation of posterior moments*by John F. Geweke***147**Optimal fiscal and monetary policy: some recent results*by V. V. Chari & Lawrence J. Christiano & Patrick J. Kehoe***146**International real business cycles*by David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland***145**International evidence on the historical properties of business cycles*by David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe***144**Eliciting traders' knowledge in "frictionless" asset market*by Edward J. Green***143**Contracts, constraints, and consumption*by Edward J. Green & Soo-Nam Oh***142**A reconsideration of the problem of social cost: free riders and monopolists*by V. V. Chari & Larry E. Jones***141**Barter and monetary exchange under private information*by Stephen D. Williamson & Randall Wright***140**More on money as a medium of exchange*by Timothy J. Kehoe & Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & Randall Wright***139**Why is automobile insurance in Philadelphia so damn expensive?*by Eric Smith & Randall Wright***138**Tax analysis in a real business cycle model: on measuring Harberger triangles and Okun gaps*by Jeremy Greenwood & Gregory W. Huffman***137**Reputation with multiple relationships: reviving reputation models of debt*by Harold L. Cole & Patrick J. Kehoe***136**Technology adoption and growth*by Stephen L. Parente & Edward C. Prescott***135**Homework in macroeconomics: household production and aggregate fluctuations*by Jess Benhabib & Richard Rogerson & Randall Wright***134**A discussion of Cooley and Hansen's "welfare costs of moderate inflations."*by Randall Wright***133**Indivisibilities, lotteries, and sunspot equilibria*by Karl Shell & Randall Wright***132**Seigniorage as a tax: a quantitative evaluation*by Ayse Imrohoroglu & Edward C. Prescott***131**A note on labor contracts with private information and household production*by Ed Nosal & Richard Rogerson & Randall Wright*

**130**The econometrics of the general equilibrium approach to business cycles*by Finn E. Kydland & Edward C. Prescott***129**The permanent income hypothesis revisited*by Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & David A. Marshall*

**128**Duality and arbitrage with transactions costs: theory and applications*by Michael J. Stutzer***127**Periodic linear-quadratic methods for modeling seasonality*by Richard M. Todd***126**The firm and the plant in general equilibrium theory*by Andreas Hornstein & Edward C. Prescott***125**Sustainable plans and debt*by V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe***124**Sustainable plans and mutual default*by V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe***123**A contribution to the pure theory of money*by Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & Randall Wright***122**Sustainable plans*by V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe***121**International coordination of fiscal policy in limiting economies*by V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe***120**How little we know about budget policy effects*by Preston J. Miller & William Roberds***119**Restrictions on financial intermediaries and implications for aggregate fluctuations: Canada and the United States, 1870-1913*by Stephen D. Williamson***118**Determinacy of equilibria in dynamic models with finitely many consumers*by Timothy J. Kehoe & David K. Levine & Paul M. Romer***117**Labor contracts in a model of imperfect competition*by V. V. Chari & Larry E. Jones & Rodolfo E. Manuelli*

**116**On the denomination of government debt: a critique of the portfolio balance approach*by David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe***115**Time consistency and policy*by V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Edward C. Prescott***114**Can there be short-period deterministic cycles when people are long lived?*by S. Rao Aiyagari***113**A generalized variance bounds test*by Tryphon E. Kollintzas***112**International financial intermediation and aggregate fluctuations under alternative exchange rate regimes*by Jeremy Greenwood & Stephen D. Williamson*

**111**Monetary targeting in a dynamic macro model*by William Roberds***110**Seasonalities in security returns: the case of earnings announcements*by V. V. Chari & Ravi Jagannathan & Aharon R. Ofer***109**The quantitative significance of the Lucas critique*by Preston J. Miller & William Roberds***108**Money does Granger-cause output in the bivariate output-money relation*by Lawrence J. Christiano & Lars Ljungqvist***107**Vector autoregressions and reality*by David E. Runkle***106**Is consumption insufficiently sensitive to innovations in income?*by Lawrence J. Christiano*

**105**Solution of linear-quadratic- Gaussian dynamic games using variational methods*by William Roberds***104**Models of policy under stochastic replanning*by William Roberds***103**International policy cooperation may be undesirable*by Patrick J. Kehoe***102**Theory ahead of business cycle measurement*by Edward C. Prescott***100**Dynamic coalitions, growth, and the firm*by Edward C. Prescott & John H. Boyd***98**Coordination of fiscal policies in a world economy*by Patrick J. Kehoe***93**Forecasting and conditional projection using realistic prior distribution*by Thomas Doan & Robert B. Litterman & Christopher A. Sims*

**101**A method for estimating the timing interval in a linear econometric model, with an application to Taylor's model of staggered contracts*by Lawrence J. Christiano***99**Ricardian equivalence and money dominated in return: are they mutually consistent generally?*by Neil Wallace***87**Financial intermediary-coalitions*by John H. Boyd & Edward C. Prescott*

**95**Forecasting with Bayesian vector autoregressions four years of experience*by Robert B. Litterman***94**Output variability in an open-economy macro model with variance-dependent parameters*by Warren E. Weber***92**Specifying vector autoregressions for macroeconomic forecasting*by Robert B. Litterman***91**Time consistency of optimal plans: an elementary primer*by Michael J. Stutzer***90**Correspondence principles for concave orthogonal games*by Michael J. Stutzer***89**Money, real interest rates, and output: a reinterpretation of postwar U.S. data*by Robert B. Litterman & Laurence M. Weiss*

**88**Gresham's law or Gresham's fallacy?*by Arthur J. Rolnick & Warren E. Weber***86**Income stability and economic efficiency under alternative tax schemes*by Preston J. Miller***85**A model of commodity money*by Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace***84**A random walk, Markov model for the distribution of time series*by Robert B. Litterman***82**Optimal control of the money supply*by Robert B. Litterman***76**Variable rate subsidies: the inefficiency of in-kind transfers revisited*by Michael J. Stutzer***73**Identification of continuous time rational expectations models from discrete time data*by Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent***51**A price discrimination analysis of monetary policy*by John Bryant & Neil Wallace*

**83**A model of circulating private debt*by Robert M. Townsend & Neil Wallace***81**A test of the intertemporal asset pricing model*by Rajnish Mehra & Edward C. Prescott***80**The Free Banking Era: new evidence on laissez-faire banking*by Arthur J. Rolnick & Warren E. Weber***79**A new explanation for free bank failures*by Arthur J. Rolnick & Warren E. Weber***78**A use of index models in macroeconomic forecasting*by Robert B. Litterman***77**Beyond demand and supply curves in macroeconomics*by Thomas J. Sargent***75**Formulating and estimating continuous time rational expectations models*by Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent***67**Fiscal policy in a monetarist model*by Preston J. Miller*

**74**Aggregation over time and the inverse optimal predictor problem for adaptive expectations in continuous time*by Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent***72**The dimensionality of the aliasing problem in models with rational spectral densities*by Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent***71**Exact linear rational expectations models: specification and estimation*by Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent***70**Instrumental variables procedures for estimating linear rational expectations models*by Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent***69**A note on Wiener-Kolmogorov prediction formulas for rational expectations models*by Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent***68**Economic stabilization policy: a survey*by Preston J. Miller***66**Parametric properties of tax effort revenue sharing*by Michael J. Stutzer***65**A method for estimating distributed lags when observations are randomly missing*by Melvin Hinich & Warren E. Weber***64**The real bills doctrine vs. the quantity theory: a reconsideration*by Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace***63**Another note on deadweight loss*by Michael J. Stutzer***57**A generalized equilibrium solution for game theory*by John Bryant*

**62**A suggestion for further simplifying the theory of money*by John Bryant & Neil Wallace***61**A hybrid fiat-commodity monetary system*by Neil Wallace***60**Rational expectations models and the aliasing phenomenon*by Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent***59**Methods for estimating continuous time Rational Expectations models from discrete time data*by Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent***58**Interpreting economic time series*by Thomas J. Sargent***56**Bank collapse and depression*by John Bryant***55**Chaotic dynamics and bifurcation in a macro model*by Michael J. Stutzer***54**A general method of solution for game theory and its relevance for economic theorizing*by John Bryant***53**Costly information and the stock market*by John Bryant***50**Shocks, learning, and persistence*by John Bryant***48**The competitive provision of fiat money*by John Bryant***47**A model of long-term contracts*by John Bryant*

**52**Minimax-Nash*by John Bryant***49**The CBO's policy analysis: an unquestionable misuse of a questionable theory*by Preston J. Miller & Arthur J. Rolnick***46**Demand management: an illustrative example*by John Bryant***45**Optimal contracts and competitive markets with costly state verification*by Robert M. Townsend***44**A Modigliani-Miller theorem for open-market operations*by Neil Wallace***43**The political economy of overlapping generations*by John Bryant***42**Monetary policy in the presence of a stochastic deficit*by John Bryant & Neil Wallace***41**Perfect substitution in the models of the CD market*by Arthur J. Rolnick***40**"Tobin's Q" and the rate of investment in general equilibrium*by Thomas J. Sargent*

**39**Usury laws and the housing market: the Minnesota experience*by Rolnick***38**Transactions demand for money*by John Bryant***37**The overlapping-generations model of fiat money*by Neil Wallace***36**A simple general equilibrium model of depression*by John Bryant***35**A comment on "implicit contracts and the underemployment equilibrium"*by John Bryant***34**Open-market operations in a model of regulated, insured intermediaries*by John Bryant & Neil Wallace***33**Approximately complete markets: a generalization of the states of the world model*by John Bryant***27**Estimation of dynamic labor demand schedules under rational expectations*by Thomas J. Sargent***26**A note on maximum likelihood estimation of the rational expectations model of the term structure*by Thomas J. Sargent***24**Samuelson's consumption-loan model with country-specific fiat monies*by John H. Kareken & Neil Wallace***19**Rational expectations forecasts from nonrational models*by Paul A. Anderson*

**32**The impact of welfare work registration rules on labor market data*by John Bryant***31**Rational expectations and policy evaluation in macroeconometric models*by Paul A. Anderson***30**A comparison of gasoline sales taxes and automobile efficiency taxes as methods for reducing gasoline consumption*by John P. Danforth***29**Price setting 'perfect competitors'*by John Bryant***28**The inefficiency of a nominal national debt*by John Bryant & Neil Wallace***25**Rational expectations, econometric exogeneity and consumption*by Thomas J. Sargent***23**Samuelson's pure consumption loans model with constant returns-to-scale storage*by Neil Wallace***22**On simplifying the theory of fiat money*by Neil Wallace***21**Improving econometric forecasts by using subperiod data*by Paul A. Anderson & Thomas M. Supel***20**The maximum likelihood estimation of parameters in mixed autoregressive moving-average multivariate models*by Rusdu Saracoglu***18**Confidence-sensitive funds and contingency planning*by James N. Duprey***17**Competitive aspects of EFTS: impact of the development of remote electronic banking facilities on Minnesota's financial institutions*by Don Henczel***16**Deposit insurance and bank regulation: a partial equilibrium exposition*by John H. Kareken & Neil Wallace***15**A payments mechanism without Fed involvement and Fed monetary policy without required reserves*by Neil Wallace*

**14**Causality characterizations: bivariate, trivariate, and multivariate propositions*by Gary R. Skoog***13**Systematically missing data in econometric models*by Gary R. Skoog***9**Portfolio autarky: a welfare analysis*by John H. Kareken & Neil Wallace*

**12**How to use econometric models to forecast*by Thomas M. Supel***11**Local banking markets and the relation between structure, prices, and nonprices in rural areas*by Richard W. Stolz***10**International banking: where do we go from here?*by K. Auerbach*

**8**Revenue sharing: implications for the Ninth Federal Reserve District*by David S. Dahl*

**7**Fiscal deadlock in Minnesota*by David S. Dahl***6**Comments on price indexes and inflation*by Thomas M. Supel*

**4**An inquiry into shift-and-share analysis with application to the Ninth Federal Reserve District*by Garson Sher***3**Branch regulation and its effect on commercial bank entry*by Rodney Pakonen***2**Branch versus unit banking: a survey of the literature*by Rodney Pakonen*

**1**Changes in bank ownership: the impact on operating performance*by Paul F. Jessup*

**5**A working paper on bank structure and competition*by Paul F. Jessup*