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Working Paper
Fleeting Forbearance in a World of Persistent Financial Distress
Mustre-del-Rio, Jose; Sanchez, Juan M.; Athreya, Kartik B. (2026-09-04)
CORRECT ORDER OF AUTHORS: Mustre-del-Río, Sánchez, Athreya. In the US, households often delay payments on unsecured debt for extended periods. These delinquencies are costly, making them a useful indicator of financial distress. Mortgage forbearance, another form of payment delay, saw swift take-up early in the COVID-19 pandemic, but was fleeting. Most borrowers exited quickly despite generous terms. This paper reconciles these seemingly contradictory payment postponement patterns using a life-cycle model of mortgages and unsecured debt. Combining survey evidence with credit history data, ...
Working Papers , Paper 2026-019

Working Paper
The Implications of Labor Market Heterogeneity for Unemployment Insurance Design
Birinci, Serdar; See, Kurt (2026-09-01)
We estimate unemployment insurance (UI) eligibility, take-up, and replacement rates at the individual level and document how they vary with earnings, wealth, and unemployment duration. We extend a widely used framework that combines an incomplete-markets model with a frictional labor market to match our findings. We show that the optimal UI policy becomes substantially more generous once the model captures our findings. The gap between optimal policies in the two models is largely driven by endogenous UI take-up, which entails a utility cost: only those who value UI the most choose to claim ...
Working Papers , Paper 2024-026

Working Paper
Hours Worked and Lifetime Earnings Inequality
Bick, Alexander; Rogerson, Richard; Blandin, Adam (2026-08-28)
We document large differences in lifetime hours of work using data from the NLSY79 and argue that these differences are an important source of inequality in lifetime earnings. To establish this we develop a rich heterogeneous agent model of labor supply and human capital accumulation and calibrate it to a sample of highly attached males. Our calibrated model implies that almost 20 percent of the variance in lifetime earnings is accounted for by differences in lifetime hours of work, with over 90 percent of this effect due to heterogeneity in preferences. Higher lifetime hours contribute to ...
Working Papers , Paper 2024-024

Working Paper
RePEc, a Tool and Open Dataset for and about Economists
Schlaack, Anna; Zimmermann, Christian (2026-08-26)
RePEc is an initiative created by economists for economists in 1997. It functions primarily as a bibliographic tool, but it also collects various linked metadata about economists, their institutions, and their impact. Thus, a labor economist may be interested in RePEc beyond literature searches and tracking—namely, as a dataset describing a profession, its members, and their output. This essay describes RePEc’s origins and history, the many facets of its data and how the data can be accessed. It also provides some examples of scholarly studies leveraging RePEc data that could be of ...
Working Papers , Paper 2026-018

Working Paper
What Work Does Generative AI Do?
Bick, Alexander; Blandin, Adam; Deming, David; Schumacher, Tyler (2026-08-25)
We measure how workers use genAI for their jobs in a nationally representative survey linking genAI adoption to detailed occupations and tasks. Our data provide the first task-level genAI adoption indexes, which we show can inform analyses of genAI's labor market impact. Exposure scores explain some, but far from all, of the variation in adoption across occupations and tasks. We also distinguish our indexes from measures based on genAI platform chat logs, which differ conceptually and tend to over-classify chats into generic activities spanning many occupations. Finally, we highlight that ...
Working Papers , Paper 2026-017

Working Paper
The Erosion of Public Capital in Portugal
Faria-e-Castro, Miguel (2026-08-17)
This article documents the erosion of Portugal’s public capital stock since 2013 and assesses its macroeconomic implications. I extend the IMF capital series through 2027 using European Commission data and construct scenarios through 2035 for alternative infrastructure-project pipelines. In 2026, the stock is projected to remain 12.2 percent below its 2013 peak, while its ratio to GDP is projected to fall from 77.2 percent in 2013 to 52.6 percent. Short-horizon regressions show positive co-movement between public-capital and labor-productivity growth. A calibrated production-function ...
Working Papers , Paper 2026-016

Working Paper
The Erosion of Public Capital in Portugal
Faria-e-Castro, Miguel (2026-08-10)
This article documents the erosion of Portugal’s public capital stock since 2013 and assesses its macroeconomic implications. I extend the IMF capital series through 2027 using European Commission data and construct scenarios through 2035 for alternative infrastructure-project pipelines. In 2026, the stock is projected to remain 12.2 percent below its 2013 peak, while its ratio to GDP is projected to fall from 77.2 percent in 2013 to 52.6 percent. Short-horizon regressions show positive co-movement between public-capital and labor-productivity growth. A calibrated production-function ...
Working Papers , Paper 2026-016

Working Paper
Selective College Access and Intergenerational Mobility
Hendricks, Lutz; Koreshkova, Tatyana; Leukhina, Oksana (2026-08-09)
This paper studies how admissions preferences for lower-income students, alone or combined with information provision, affect college sorting, intergenerational earnings mobility, and aggregate earnings. We develop a quantitative model of college choice with quality-differentiated college types. We find that income-adjusted admissions substantially increase lower-income enrollment at selective colleges and improve intergenerational earnings mobility. Even larger-scale reforms generate only a slight decline in aggregate earnings.
Working Papers , Paper 2024-030

Working Paper
The Implications of Labor Market Heterogeneity for Unemployment Insurance Design
Birinci, Serdar; See, Kurt (2026-08-05)
We estimate unemployment insurance (UI) eligibility, take-up, and replacement rates at the individual level and document how they vary with earnings, wealth, and unemployment duration. We extend a widely used framework that combines an incomplete-markets model with a frictional labor market to match our findings. We show that the optimal UI policy becomes substantially more generous once the model captures our findings. The gap between optimal policies in the two models is largely driven by endogenous UI take-up, which entails a utility cost: only those who value UI the most choose to claim ...
Working Papers , Paper 2024-026

Working Paper
Geopolitical Distance and Targeted Trade: Evidence from Product-Level Export Controls
Patro, Bontu Ankit; Santacreu, Ana Maria (2026-07-14)
Trade policy in advanced economies is closely intertwined with concerns about technology and geopolitical rivalry. Using product-level data on export-related trade interventions, we characterize how contemporary export-side interventions are allocated across products, destinations, and bilateral trade relationships. We show that export controls are broad in regulatory scope but economically concentrated on high-value trade flows. Export controls disproportionately target high-technology products and economically important trade relationships, while geopolitical distance shapes their ...
Working Papers , Paper 2026-014

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