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Working Paper
Heterogeneous Capital Ownership, Partial Democracy and Political Support for Immigration
Bandyopadhyay, Subhayu; Mitra, Devashish (2024-10-15)
This paper analyzes and compares equilibrium immigration levels of some popular political economy models in the context of unequal capital holdings. We show that immigration rises (falls) with inequality in a limited (inclusive) democracy where only a small (large) fraction of the population has voting rights. Furthermore, we highlight the similarities between a campaign-contributions model and a partial-democracy model in terms of their predictions about immigration policy. In particular, we show that extension of voting rights in a partial democracy has qualitatively similar implications on ...
Working Papers , Paper 2024-035

Working Paper
Nominal Maturity Mismatch and the Liquidity Cost of Inflation
Chiang, Yu-Ting; Karger, Ezra (2024-09-30)
We document a liquidity channel through which unexpected inflation generates substantial welfare losses. Household balance sheets are nominal maturity mismatched: nominal liabilities have a longer duration than nominal assets. Due to this mismatch, losses from unexpected inflation are concentrated over short time horizons, while gains are spread out over the longer run. This has negative effects on liquidity-constrained households, who cannot easily borrow against their future gains. We quantify the importance of the liquidity channel and show that, for households in the lower half of the ...
Working Papers , Paper 2024-031

Working Paper
The geography of wealth: shocks, mobility, and precautionary savings
Dvorkin, Maximiliano; Greaney, Brian (2024-09-30)
The spatial distribution of wealth in the United States is very heterogeneous, with important differences within and across US states. We study the distribution of wealth in a country and how it is shaped by the characteristics earnings across regions, and by the frictions individuals face to move and reallocate across space. For this, we develop a tractable model of consumption, savings, and location choice with many regions, incomplete markets, and heterogeneous agents facing persistent and transitory income shocks. Our analysis focuses on the role of income shocks, precautionary savings, ...
Working Papers , Paper 2024-033

Working Paper
Lifetime Work Hours and the Evolution of the Gender Wage Gap
Leukhina, Oksana; Vandenbroucke, Guillaume (2024-09-30)
The gender wage gap expanded from 1940 and 1975 but narrowed sharply from 1980 to 1995. We use the model introduced in Ben-Porath (1967) to assess the role of gender differences in life cycle profiles of market time in explaining the gender wage gap dynamics over the long run. Men’s profiles changed little across cohorts, but women’s profiles converged to those of men, and especially so in higher-paying occupations. We calibrate the model and find that the implied trends in unobserved investment in human capital accumulation account for most of the long run gender wage gap dynamics. The ...
Working Papers , Paper 2022-025

Working Paper
The Implications of Labor Market Heterogeneity on Unemployment Insurance Design
Birinci, Serdar; See, Kurt (2024-09-29)
We digitize state-level and time-varying unemployment insurance (UI) laws on initial eligibility, payment amount, and payment duration and combine them with microdata on labor market outcomes to estimate UI eligibility, take-up, and replacement rates at the individual level. We document how levels of income and wealth affect unemployment risk, eligibility,take-up, and replacement rates both upon job loss and over the course of unemployment spells. We evaluate whether these empirical findings are important for shaping UI policy design using a general equilibrium incomplete markets model ...
Working Papers , Paper 2024-026

Working Paper
Mind Your Language: Market Responses to Central Bank Speeches
Ahrens, Maximilian; Erdemlioglu, Deniz; McMahon, Michael; Neely, Christopher J.; Yang, Xiye (2024-09-28)
Post-meeting central bank communication often moves markets, but researchers have paid less attention to the more frequent central bankers’ speeches. We create a novel dataset of U.S. Federal Reserve speeches and develop supervised multimodal natural language processing methods to identify how monetary policy news affect bond and stock market volatility and tail risk through implied changes in forecasts of GDP, inflation, and unemployment. We find that forecast revisions derived from FOMC member speeches can help explain volatility and tail risk in both equity and bond markets. Speeches ...
Working Papers , Paper 2023-013

Working Paper
The economic effects of a potential armed conflict over Taiwan
Neely, Christopher J. (2024-09-27)
This article examines the likely economic effects of a Chinese invasion or blockade of Taiwan for the U.S. and the world by considering historical precedents. Such a conflict would likely produce a flight-to-safety in the asset market, huge disruptions in international trade, banking problems, and would greatly exacerbate existing fiscal pressures. The authorities of the People’s Republic of China would probably try to sell U.S. and other western securities prior to a conflict to avoid sanctions on those assets. Such sales would be temporarily disruptive but would likely have only marginal ...
Working Papers , Paper 2024-034

Working Paper
Cross-border Patenting and the Margins of International Trade
Martinez-Zarzoso, Immaculada; Santacreu, Ana Maria (2024-09-26)
This paper investigates the impact of cross-border patenting on the margins of international trade using disaggregated data on international patenting and trade flows. We develop a theoretical framework of trade and firms' patenting decisions that motivates our empirical analysis. The main results reveal that cross-border patenting has a larger effect on the extensive margin of trade compared to the intensive margin. This finding suggests that firms tend to seek patent protection in international markets prior to entering those markets with new products, rather than with their existing ...
Working Papers , Paper 2024-028

Working Paper
What the Transcripts Reveal About the FOMC’s Pre-Emptive Easing in July 1995
Kliesen, Kevin L. (2024-09-26)
At their September 2024 meeting, the FOMC began reducing the federal funds target rate and indicating the likelihood of additional reductions by the end of the year and into 2025. The FOMC took this action because of favorable inflation trends and some developing weakness in labor markets. A similar dynamic was at work from 1994 to early 1996. During this period, the FOMC undertook, first, a pre-emptive tightening in policy to combat emerging price pressures and then, second, a pre-emptive easing of monetary policy to counter the expectations of slower real GDP growth or outright recession. ...
Working Papers , Paper 2024-029

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