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Report
Manufacturing Wage Premiums Have Diverged between Production and Nonproduction Workers
Elvery, Joel; Dunn, Julianne
(2021-11-09)
A manufacturing wage premium is the average percentage difference between the wage a worker earns in manufacturing and the wage similar workers earn in industries other than manufacturing. Using standard wage regressions, we find that, between 1979 and 2018, the manufacturing wage premium declined much more for production workers (such as machine operators) than for nonproduction workers (such as managers or administrative assistants). As a result, the production-workers’ wage premium was 4 percent during 2015 to 2018, while the nonproduction-workers’ wage premium was 14 percent. The ...
Cleveland Fed Regional Policy Report
, Issue 20211109
, Pages 26
Discussion Paper
The Survey of Consumer Expectations Turns Two!
Armantier, Olivier; Van der Klaauw, Wilbert; Zafar, Basit; Topa, Giorgio
(2015-07-13)
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) turned two years old in June. In this post, we review some of the key findings from the first two years of the survey’s history, highlighting the most noteworthy trends revealed in the data.
Liberty Street Economics
, Paper 20150713a
Report
Unemployment Benefits and Unemployment in the Great Recession: The Role of Equilibrium Effects
Mitman, Kurt; Karahan, Fatih; Manovskii, Iourii; Hagedorn, Marcus
(2013-10-01)
Equilibrium labor market theory suggests that unemployment benefit extensions affect unemployment by impacting both job search decisions by the unemployed and job creation decisions by employers. The existing empirical literature focused on the former effect only. We develop a new methodology necessary to incorporate the measurement of the latter effect. Implementing this methodology in the data, we find that benefit extensions raise equilibrium wages and lead to a sharp contraction in vacancy creation and employment and a rise in unemployment.
Staff Reports
, Paper 646
Discussion Paper
How Do Firms Respond to Hiring Difficulties? Evidence from the Federal Reserve Banks' Small Business Credit Survey
de Zeeuw, Mels; Terry, Ellie
(2018-08-21)
Using data from the Federal Reserve Banks' 2017 Small Business Credit Survey (SBCS), this paper investigates the various ways in which different types of firms with less than 500 employees experience and address hiring difficulties, including when they decide to increase compensation. {{p}} The authors find significant variation in hiring difficulties by type of firm, and a firm's response appears to depend on the nature of the problem. The most common response is to increase compensation, with firms that experience competition from other employers being the most likely to do so. Other common ...
FRB Atlanta Community and Economic Development Discussion Paper
, Paper 2018-1
Working Paper
The Passthrough of Labor Costs to Price Inflation
Peneva, Ekaterina V.; Rudd, Jeremy B.
(2015-05-21)
We use a time-varying parameter/stochastic volatility VAR framework to assess how the passthrough of labor costs to price inflation has evolved over time in U.S. data. We find little evidence that changes in labor costs have had a material effect on price inflation in recent years, even for compensation measures where some degree of passthrough to prices still appears to be present. Our results cast doubt on explanations of recent inflation behavior that appeal to such mechanisms as downward nominal wage rigidity or a differential contribution of long-term and short-term unemployed workers to ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
, Paper 2015-42
Discussion Paper
What Is behind the Global Jump in Personal Saving during the Pandemic?
Higgins, Matthew; Klitgaard, Thomas
(2021-04-14)
Household saving has soared in the United States and other high-income countries during the COVID-19 pandemic, despite widespread declines in wages and other private income streams. This post highlights the role of fiscal policy in driving the saving boom, through stepped-up social benefits and other income support measures. Indeed, in the United States, Japan, and Canada, government assistance has pushed household income above its pre-pandemic trajectory. We argue that the larger scale of government assistance in these countries helps explain why saving in these countries has risen more ...
Liberty Street Economics
, Paper 20210414
Newsletter
Does Automation Always Lead to a Decline in Low-Wage Jobs?
Phelan, Brian J.; Aaronson, Daniel
(2019)
To what extent are low-wage jobs in the United States being replaced by technology? Our research suggests that low-wage jobs that are intensive in routine cognitive tasks, such as cashier, were supplanted by automation during the 2000s. Moreover, since the Great Recession, jobs intensive in both routine manual and routine cognitive tasks have been negatively impacted by automation. Nevertheless, the overall effect on individual low-wage workers has been surprisingly small.
Chicago Fed Letter
Newsletter
When It Comes to Wage Growth, the Measure Matters
Cole, Ross; Hu, Luojia; Schulhofer-Wohl, Sam
(2017)
Average wages are a closely watched economic indicator. The growth rate of average wages can help tell us, for example, how workers? living standards are changing, whether employers face rising costs that they might pass through to consumer price inflation, and whether the labor market is tight or has room to improve further. In the realm of monetary policy, the last two applications are particularly important because they can help people assess the outlook for the Federal Reserve?s ?dual mandate? of price stability and maximum employment.
Chicago Fed Letter
Journal Article
How Aggregation Matters for Measured Wage Growth
Morris, Michael; Tracy, Joseph; Rich, Robert W.
(2020-07-09)
Wage growth is often measured by the change in average hourly earnings (AHE), a gauge of overall wages that aggregates information on earnings and hours worked across individuals. A close look at this aggregation method demonstrates that AHE growth reflects disproportionately the profile of high-earning workers who typically display lower and less cyclically sensitive wage growth. Using data from the Current Population Survey (CPS), we adopt a different aggregation method and compute wage growth as the average of individuals’ wage growth. The analysis indicates that the CPS measure of ...
Economic Commentary
, Volume 2020
, Issue 19
, Pages 9
Working Paper
The Dynamics of the Smoking Wage Penalty
Darden, Michael; Pitts, M. Melinda; Hotchkiss, Julie L.
(2020-07-28)
Cigarette smokers earn significantly less than nonsmokers, but the magnitude of the smoking wage gap and the pathways by which it originates are unclear. Proposed mechanisms often focus on spot differences in employee productivity or employer preferences, neglecting the dynamic nature of human capital development and addiction. In this paper, we formulate a dynamic model of young workers as they transition from schooling to the labor market, a period in which the lifetime trajectory of wages is being developed. We estimate the model with data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, ...
FRB Atlanta Working Paper
, Paper 2020-11
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