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Journal Article
Economic history : Going to market
Journal Article
Economic history : Liquid gold
More than a century ago, West Virginians tapped into their vast reserves of coal and turned it into a valuable form of oil
Working Paper
Entry, exit and plant-level dynamics over the business cycle
This paper analyzes the implications of plant-level dynamics over the business cycle. We first document basic patterns of entry and exit of U.S. manufacturing plants, in terms of employment and productivity between 1972 and 1997. We show how entry and exit patterns vary during the business cycle, and that the cyclical pattern of entry is very different from the cyclical pattern of exit. Second, we build a general equilibrium model of plant entry, exit, and employment and compare its predictions to the data. In our model, plants enter and exit endogenously, and the size and productivity of ...
Speech
Regional economy and manufacturing update
Remarks at the Quarterly Regional Economic Press Briefing, New York City.
Journal Article
Manufacturing lots of work for little profit
Working Paper
Estimating machinery supply elasticities using output price booms
Recent years have seen large increases in the prices of houses, farm products, and oil, often with little clear connection to economic fundamentals. These price increases created plausibly exogenous shifts in demand for construction, farm, and mining machinery. This paper uses these demand shifts to estimate the elasticity of machinery supply. Graphical evidence, OLS, and IV estimates all indicate that the quantity of machinery supplied increased rapidly during the booms, with only modest increases in prices. Pooled sample estimates of the supply elasticity are around 5, much larger than the ...
Journal Article
Spotlight on manufacturing in Oklahoma
Oklahoma continued to outpace the nation in economic growth during the early fall months. Payroll employment was up in October from a year ago, and the state is now above pre-recession employment levels. Manufacturing led Oklahoma?s job growth, while trade, transportation and utility firms also posted solid job gains. Energy employment has declined slightly, but still remains above year-ago levels.
Working Paper
Structural change in an open economy
We study the importance of international trade in structural change. Our framework has both productivity and trade cost shocks, and allows for non-unitary income and substitution elasticities. We calibrate our model to investigate South Korea's structural change between 1971 and 2005. We find that the shock processes, propagated through the model's two main transmission mechanisms, non-homothetic preferences and the open economy, explain virtually all of the evolution of agriculture and services labor shares, and the rising part of the hump-shape in manufacturing. Counterfactual exercises ...
Working Paper
Relocation patterns in U.S. manufacturing
This paper summarizes relocation patterns in the U.S. manufacturing industry over the period 1972-1992, using plant- and firm-level data from the U.S. Census of Manufactures. This study contributes to the existing literature on firm dynamics by distinguishing entry due to relocation from entry by new firms, and exit due to relocation from permanent exit. In contrast to previous studies which report that entering plants experience relatively lower productivity, I find that some entering plants?specifically, those that are not new but merely relocated?have higher productivity. I also find a ...