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Showing results 1 to 9 of approximately 9.
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Journal Article
How Low- and Moderate-Income Households Are Coping with Inflation
Most people across income groups report financial stress from recent high inflation. To cope, individuals with lower incomes have cut back on necessities.
Working Paper
International Financial Spillovers to Emerging Market Economies: How Important Are Economic Fundamentals?
We assess the importance of economic fundamentals in the transmission of international shocks to financial markets in various emerging market economies (EMEs). Our analysis covers the so-called taper-tantrum episode of 2013 and six earlier episodes of severe EME-wide financial stress since the mid-1990s. Cross-country regressions lead us to the following results: (1) EMEs with relatively better economic fundamentals suffered less deterioration in financial markets during the 2013 taper-tantrum episode. (2) Differentiation among EMEs set in quite early and persisted throughout this episode. ...
Speech
Financial Stress and the Current Macroeconomic Outlook
St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard presented “Financial Stress and the Current Macroeconomic Outlook” at a meeting of Greater St. Louis Inc.He noted that financial stress has been on the rise in recent days and that the macroprudential policy response has been swift and appropriate. He added that regulators stand ready to take additional action if necessary.Meanwhile, incoming data on the U.S. macroeconomy have been stronger than expected, and inflation remains too high, Bullard said. He also noted that FOMC policy has kept market-based measures of inflation expectations relatively low, ...
Working Paper
International Financial Spillovers to Emerging Market Economies: How Important Are Economic Fundamentals?
We assess the importance of economic fundamentals in the transmission of international shocks to financial markets in various emerging market economies (EMEs), covering the so-called taper-tantrum episode of 2013 and seven other episodes of severe EME-wide financial stress since the mid-1990s. Cross-country regressions lead us to the following results: (1) EMEs with relatively better economic fundamentals suffered less deterioration in financial markets during the 2013 taper-tantrum episode. (2) Differentiation among EMEs set in relatively early and persisted through this episode. (3) During ...
Speech
Bullard Speaks about Financial Stress and the Economy
St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard presented “Financial Stress and the Economy” at a meeting of the Arkansas Bankers Association in Little Rock.He said that financial stress has been on the rise in recent weeks, but the macroprudential policy response has been swift and appropriate. He added that regulators are prepared to take additional steps if needed.Data on the real U.S. economy have generally been stronger than expected, and inflation remains too high, Bullard said. He pointed out that FOMC policy has kept market-based measures of inflation expectations relatively low, which bodes ...
Discussion Paper
Measuring the Financial Stability Real Interest Rate, r**
Comparing our financial stability real interest rate, r** (“r-double-star”) with the prevailing real interest rate gives a measure of how vulnerable the economy is to financial instability. In this post, we first explain how r** can be measured, and then discuss its evolution over the last fifty years and how to interpret the recent banking turmoil within this framework.
Briefing
Mortgage Spreads and the Yield Curve
Mortgage spreads — the 30-year mortgage fixed rate minus the 10-year Treasury rate — have a history of increasing sharply in times of economic stress. While often viewed as a measure of financial stress, I argue they are mostly explained by changes in expected mortgage duration arising from changes in the yield curve. Economic stress leads to a downward-sloping yield curve, which increases expected refinance activity, shortening mortgage durations. This shorter duration makes mortgages prices reflect short (rather than long) Treasury rates. But with a downward-sloping yield curve, this ...
Speech
Bullard Discusses Financial Stress, Rate Increases and Inflation on Bloomberg TV
During an appearance on Bloomberg TV, St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard discussed financial stress, the federal funds rate and inflation.On banking sector problems, Bullard said the reaction was swift and appropriate. He said he projected an 80% probability that the financial stress within the sector will decline.“You’ve got the macroprudential tools for financial stress, and you’ve got monetary policy to fight inflation. We can do both as long as financial stress doesn’t morph into something much larger,” he said.To bring down inflation, Bullard said the median Federal Open ...
Report
Community Education Circles in the Lawrence Public Schools: evaluation design and baseline survey data
This paper describes a plan for evaluating the Community Education Circles (CECs) program that is being implemented in the Lawrence Public Schools as part of an effort to enhance family-school engagement and improve outcomes for both students and parents. The CECs program supports the larger Lawrence Working Families Initiative, which in 2013 was awarded a multiyear grant through the Boston Fed?s Working Cities Challenge. This paper accomplishes several objectives: (1) describe the goals and methods of the CECs program as well as the larger goals of the Lawrence Working Families Initiative; ...