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Working Paper
The Financial Stability Implications of Digital Assets
Scotti, Chiara; Carapella, Francesca; Rappoport, David E.; Baughman, Garth; Swem, Nathan; Vardoulakis, Alexandros (2022-08)
The value of assets in the digital ecosystem has grown rapidly, amid periods of high volatility. Does the digital financial system create new potential challenges to financial stability? This paper explores this question using the Federal Reserve’s framework for analyzing vulnerabilities in the traditional financial system. The digital asset ecosystem has recently proven itself highly fragile. However adverse digital asset markets shocks have had limited spillovers to the traditional financial system. Currently, the digital asset ecosystem does not provide significant financial services ...
Finance and Economics Discussion Series , Paper 2022-058

Newsletter
Is There a Trade-Off Between Low Bond Risk Premiums and Financial Stability?
Chabot, Benjamin (2014-08)
It has been suggested that financial instability may be more likely following periods of low bond market risk premiums. The timing of past episodes of instability casts doubt upon the hypothesis that low levels of risk premiums sow the seeds of future instability.
Chicago Fed Letter , Issue Aug

Journal Article
So Far, So Good: Government Insurance of Financial Sector Tail Risk
Wall, Larry D. (2021-11-08)
The US government has intervened to provide extraordinary support 16 times from 1970 to 2020 with the goal of preventing or mitigating (or both) the cost of financial instability to the financial sector and the real economy. This article discusses the motivation for such support, reviewing the instances where support was provided, along with one case where it was expected but not provided. The article then discusses the moral hazard and fiscal risks posed by the government's insurance of the tail risk along with ways to reduce the government's risk exposure.
Policy Hub , Volume 2021 , Issue 13

Working Paper
Macroprudential Policy: Results from a Tabletop Exercise
Rosen, Richard J.; Musatov, Alex; Prescott, Edward Simpson; Duffy, Denise; Kovner, Anna; Tallarini, Thomas D.; Yang, Emily; Haubrich, Joseph G.; Zlate, Andrei; Vardoulakis, Alexandros (2019-05-21)
This paper presents a tabletop exercise designed to analyze macroprudential policy. Several senior Federal Reserve officials were presented with a hypothetical economy as of 2020:Q2 in which commercial real estate and nonfinancial debt valuations were very high. After analyzing the economy and discussing the use of monetary and macroprudential policy tools, participants were then presented with a hypothetical negative shock to commercial real estate valuations that occurred in the second half of 2020. Participants then discussed the use of the tools during an incipient downturn. Some of the ...
Working Papers , Paper 19-11

Report
Monetary policy, financial conditions, and financial stability
Liang, J. Nellie; Adrian, Tobias (2014-09-01)
We review a growing literature that incorporates endogenous risk premiums and risk taking in the conduct of monetary policy. Accommodative policy can create an intertemporal trade-off between improving current financial conditions and increasing future financial vulnerabilities. In the United States, structural and cyclical macroprudential tools to reduce vulnerabilities at banks are being implemented, but they may not be sufficient because activities can migrate and there are limited tools for nonbank intermediaries and for borrowers. While monetary policy itself can influence ...
Staff Reports , Paper 690

Report
Macroprudential policy: case study from a tabletop exercise
Zlate, Andrei; de Fontnouvelle, Patrick; Yang, Emily; Adrian, Tobias (2015-09-01)
Since the global financial crisis of 2007-09, policymakers and academics around the world have advocated the use of prudential tools for macroprudential purposes. This paper presents a macroprudential tabletop exercise that aimed at confronting Federal Reserve Bank presidents with a plausible, albeit hypothetical, macro-financial scenario that would lend itself to macroprudential considerations. In the tabletop exercise, the primary macroprudential objective was to reduce the likelihood and severity of possible future financial disruptions associated with the hypothetical overheating ...
Staff Reports , Paper 742

Report
Review of U.S. Business Bankruptcies During the COVID-19 Pandemic
Collins-Thompson, Juli; Collins, Brendan; Maher, John (2021-11-19)
In this note, we review trends in U.S. business bankruptcy filings between 2019 and the third quarter of 2021, with a focus on the COVID-19 pandemic period. We examine macro trends in business bankruptcies as well as conduct an in-depth review of industries hardest hit by the pandemic, including hotels, retail and restaurants. We find that, thus far, the anticipated surge in bankruptcies has largely not materialized, including in the aforementioned industries. Official sector actions, including those by the Federal Reserve, played a key role in offsetting the negative impact on businesses of ...
Supervisory Research and Analysis Notes , Issue 2021-05 , Pages 18

Speech
Five Points About Monetary Policy and Financial Stability (06-04-2016) Sveriges Riksbank Conference on Rethinking the Central Bank’s Mandate, Stockholm, Sweden
Mester, Loretta J. (2016-06-04)
Since the 2008 global financial crisis and the Great Recession that followed, economists and policymakers have been evaluating the factors that led to the crisis, assessing what could have been done to prevent, or at least limit, the damage, and considering what can and should be done to reduce the probability and impact of future disruptions to financial stability. That this is a very broad topic can easily be seen by looking at the agendas of this and previous years? conferences organized by the Riksbank. Today I will focus my remarks on the nexus between monetary policy and financial ...
Speech , Paper 72

Journal Article
Overlooked Suburbs: The Changing Metropolitan Geography of Poverty in the Western United States
Mattiuzzi, Elizabeth; Weir, Margaret (2022-01-31)
This report examines trends between 1990 and 2014—18 in the location of populations experiencing poverty, which we define as those with incomes below the federal poverty line, within metropolitan regions in the United States, with a particular focus on the western United States.We explore how growing suburban poverty is distributed across jurisdictional boundaries that shape governance outcomes, including incorporated and unincorporated suburbs. The size of a suburb and its incorporation status affect its position within local-regional political structures, and smaller suburbs may be ...
Community Development Research Brief , Volume 2022 , Issue 01 , Pages 160

Working Paper
Central Clearing and Systemic Liquidity Risk
Paulson, Anna L.; Prono, Todd; Kingsley, G. Thomas; Nesmith, Travis D. (2019-12-01)
By stepping between bilateral counterparties, a central counterparty (CCP) transforms credit exposure. CCPs generally improve financial stability. Nevertheless, large CCPs are by nature concentrated and interconnected with major global banks. Moreover, although they mitigate credit risk, CCPs create liquidity risks, because they rely on participants to provide cash. Such requirements increase with both market volatility and default; consequently, CCP liquidity needs are inherently procyclical. This procyclicality makes it more challenging to assess CCP resilience in the rare event that one or ...
Working Paper Series , Paper WP 2019-12

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